Merged 2026 Mid-Term election outcomes: US Congress

[Brainster]

Updated Senate snapshot; as a reminder the Democrats need to win five of these seven states in order to take control. Most of the changes since the last grid are in favor of the Democrats. Still, the overall control market is still about 50-50; Kalshi has it 52-48 GOP, Polymarket is at 52-50 Democrats, while Predictit says 53-49 GOP.

State	Polling	Poly
Texas	D+2.4	D+2
Maine	D+2.3	D+39
Alaska	D+2	D+27
Ohio	D+2.6	D+9
Michigan	D+2.3	D+18
North Carolina	D+8.0	D+83
Iowa	R+1.4	R+27

 

[dirtywick]

that'll change with the price of gas imo

 

[Pixel42]

Trump's wish to make it impossible to vote by mail ballot is supposed to help MAGA. But how? I thought people used mail ballots in order to avoid driving long distances to the voting stations. Surely, this is a problem for rural voters, but not so much for urban voters. I thought that the rural countryside was more MAGA than the cities, so wouldn't it hurt MAGA more if voting by mail ballots is impossible?

Trump is against mail in ballots because he noticed how often he was ahead in a poll until the mailed ballots were counted, and his lead was then reduced or even lost. This is indeed evidence that there are more Democrat (or at least anti-Trump) voters who use them than Republican/pro-Trump voters. Though to him, of course, it's evidence that mail in voting is rigged, as he can't understand why anyone would ever vote against him.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

and, of course, ICE is going to shot up in number at any polling place in Blue areas.

 

[Trebuchet]

and, of course, ICE is going to shot up in number at any polling place in Blue areas.

Awesome typo there!

 

[kookbreaker]

New tactic, just don't let them Dems on the ballot in the first place!

Five Democratic candidates removed from St. Joseph County ballot over filing error

The board ruled the candidates missed a required form deadline after being appointed to fill ballot vacancies.

www.wndu.com

 

[Segnosaur]

Trump's wish to make it impossible to vote by mail ballot is supposed to help MAGA. But how? I thought people used mail ballots in order to avoid driving long distances to the voting stations. Surely, this is a problem for rural voters, but not so much for urban voters. I thought that the rural countryside was more MAGA than the cities, so wouldn't it hurt MAGA more if voting by mail ballots is impossible?

If you live in a rural area, you likely have a vehicle and are used to driving long distances regularly. In urban areas, your polling statation may be closer to you geographically, but you either have to walk there or take public transport (if you are a poorer voter that does not have a vehicle, someone more likely to vote democrat)

And as other posters already mentioned, lineups at urban polling stations often have longer lines.

 

[Brainster]

Good news for Democrats: Republicans won't be allowed to distance themselves from Trump:

The Republican National Committee is issuing a warning to rank-and-file lawmakers up for reelection who are considering shying away from President Trump during the campaign: do so at your own peril.

President Trump “is the biggest turnout machine for mid- to low-propensity voters and we need those voters to get to the polls,” RNC national press secretary Natalie Baldassarre told Politico in response to an article about GOP House members who are on the fence about their campaign strategies ahead of the November midterm elections.

“If members are choosing to keep an arm’s length from the president, they risk alienating their base [and] they risk 15 to 20 percent of their key Republican voters not turning out because they don’t feel like they’re a good supporter of the president’s policies,” she said.

Trump wants to make the election a referendum on his second term. Given that his net approval rating is a chilly -16.5%, I assume that Democratic candidates will be urging him to campaign for their opponents.

 

[PitPat]

Good news for Democrats: Republicans won't be allowed to distance themselves from Trump:

Trump wants to make the election a referendum on his second term. Given that his net approval rating is a chilly -16.5%, I assume that Democratic candidates will be urging him to campaign for their opponents.

Even better if they stay the focus on communism and ignore the economy.

 

[steenkh]

Trump wants to make the election a referendum on his second term. Given that his net approval rating is a chilly -16.5%, I assume that Democratic candidates will be urging him to campaign for their opponents.

It sounds like a better strategy for Trump would be telling candidates that they should say they don't support him. And when they're elected, then support him, and make an end to democracy.

 

[dirtywick]

US diesel prices hit a record high, pushing up transportation costs for a long list of goods

Diesel has hit a record price in the U.S., soaring to an average of $5.85 a gallon for the first time.

apnews.com

diesel prices hit all time high, with no relief in the near term

Diesel has been more expensive than gasoline in the U.S. for decades, and its price has risen at a faster pace before. Some reasons include less flexibility in demand and diesel’s position in global commerce overall. Individual households may find ways to drive less when gas prices are high, for example, but there’s fewer immediate substitutes for networks that rely on diesel to haul goods worldwide.

they forgot that you can't dilute it with corn like you can regular gasoline

 

[dudalb]

It sounds like a better strategy for Trump would be telling candidates that they should say they don't support him. And when they're elected, then support him, and make an end to democracy.

TRump 2026 ads are all about Trump...much to the dismay of many GOP candidates. They are fools to thinking anything else woud happen.
Trump really does not give a damn about the GOP...he only cares about Trump.
Just saw an artical that the Dems are leading a a good manyof the districts that the GOP gerrymandering to give them an advantage.
For the all the GOP's tactics, it is lookingmore and more like November will be a disaster for them.

 

[dudalb]

MAGA Inc has a massive $850 million war chest but he's still loathe to give any to Republican candidates so far. You'd think he'd be more generous considering a blue wave will certainly result in his impeachment. He's probably saving it for the humongous legal fees facing him post-presidency.

With elections nearing, battleground Republicans still waiting for Trump to open his campaign wallet

Vice President JD Vance's appearance in Michigan on Monday was funded by MAGA Inc., marking a rare spending move from the group.

apnews.com

They are still trying t figure out how much of it they can divert into Swiss and Bahamian bank accounts....

 

[kookbreaker]

Its a gubernatorial election but someone tried to attack Amy Acton, Democrat Candidate for Ohio Governor at a fair.

Armed man confronts Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton at event; suspect arrested

Acton was visiting the annual Canfield Fair in Mahoning County, near Youngstown.

www.nbcnews.com

 

[PitPat]

Its a gubernatorial election but someone tried to attack Amy Acton, Democrat Candidate for Ohio Governor at a fair.

Armed man confronts Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton at event; suspect arrested

Acton was visiting the annual Canfield Fair in Mahoning County, near Youngstown.

www.nbcnews.com

I can totally see the MAGA crowd saying the guy was DSA. Attacking the establishment candidate because they're not communist enough.

 

[Pixel42]

Even if Trump lost both House and Senate, would it really make much difference? As far as I can see he's been pretty much ignoring Congress since he was elected, and governing mostly by executive order. He's already done plenty of things (e.g. starting a war) for which he should have got their approval but didn't.

Is it because it opens up the possibility that he could be impeached? And what would stop him ignoring that too, on account of the election having been "fixed"?

 

[PitPat]

Even if Trump lost both House and Senate, would it really make much difference? As far as I can see he's been pretty much ignoring Congress since he was elected, and governing mostly by executive order. He's already done plenty of things (e.g. starting a war) for which he should have got their approval but didn't.

Is it because it opens up the possibility that he could be impeached? And what would stop him ignoring that too, on account of the election having been "fixed"?

I'm all but certain Democrats will win the House and Senate, and then impeach and convict Trump. I know it's easy to think that he'll find a way around it somehow (especially among non-USAian), and that's understandable given the past. But he's too unpopular now and his 25% (and shrinking) base won't be able to save him. They might try to pull another January 6, but just like last time it will fail. He's toast.

 

[Mongrel]

As far as I can see he's been pretty much ignoring Congress since he was elected, and governing mostly by executive order

I do think that it's less that he's ignoring them and more that they've abdicated their responsibility and handed him a blank cheque to do what he wants

 

[shemp]

I'm all but certain Democrats will win the House and Senate, and then impeach and convict Trump. I know it's easy to think that he'll find a way around it somehow (especially among non-USAian), and that's understandable given the past. But he's too unpopular now and his 25% (and shrinking) base won't be able to save him. They might try to pull another January 6, but just like last time it will fail. He's toast.

They won't be able to convict him; they won't get the necessary two-thirds vote in the Senate. He could kill, roast and eat babies on live TV and they still wouldn't get the needed GOP votes.

 

[Norman Alexander]

What would be the likelihood of success of 25th Amendment for Trump, rather than impeachment? The vibe seems to be that a LOT of Republicans would be pleased to see Trump irrevocably gone from government, their lives, their party, their country and mostly their TV sets. Even if it means a return to blandness and having to actually participate in government like sane people. Trump is shipping them many metric ◊◊◊◊-tons of evidence in the last few months alone to have him immediately committed to a high-walled asylum for criminally insane old goobers for the rest of his pathetic life. So perhaps that is the most achievable outcome. Thoughts?