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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

Putin is already seeking a full mobilization just to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. If he attacks a NATO country directly, the gloves come off in Ukraine. I don't see how starting a wider conflict, in addition to making his goals in Ukraine that much harder to achieve, really helps him.
 
Putin is already seeking a full mobilization just to sustain combat operations in Ukraine. If he attacks a NATO country directly, the gloves come off in Ukraine. I don't see how starting a wider conflict, in addition to making his goals in Ukraine that much harder to achieve, really helps him.
to test nato.

hes counting on everyone not caring about article 5 and not going to aid attacked country

that will leave everyone feeling like they're on their own for defending their country

therefore they have to save weapons for themselves rather than send to ukraine.

its the only scenario that helps but without doing it russia is going to lose ukraine so why not double down?
 
to test nato.

hes counting on everyone not caring about article 5 and not going to aid attacked country

that will leave everyone feeling like they're on their own for defending their country

therefore they have to save weapons for themselves rather than send to ukraine.

its the only scenario that helps but without doing it russia is going to lose ukraine so why not double down?
Interesting hypothesis.

I think European support for Ukraine tends to falsify it, though. No article five there, just enlightened self-interest.
 
i know that, you know that. But does putin believe it?
I have no idea what Putin actually believes, these days.

ETA: Honestly if he believes that drones and cruise missiles and air defenses will be easier to deal with in Estonia than Ukraine, then I kind of wish a mother ◊◊◊◊◊◊ would try it one time.
 
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to test nato.

hes counting on everyone Trump not caring about article 5 and not going to aid attacked country

that will leave everyone feeling like they're on their own for defending their country

therefore they have to save weapons for themselves rather than send to ukraine.

its the only scenario that helps but without doing it russia is going to lose ukraine so why not double down?
Fixed that for you.
 
I have no idea what Putin actually believes, these days.

ETA: Honestly if he believes that drones and cruise missiles and air defenses will be easier to deal with in Estonia than Ukraine, then I kind of wish a mother ◊◊◊◊◊◊ would try it one time.
ukraine has a depth of land for defence that a small country like estonia just doesn't have

not saying i think it would be easy for russia but i dont think like the russians do
 
Estonia is one of the countries home one of the eight NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroups. It's the one lead at the moment by the UK.

An attack on Estonia at this moment would be a direct attack on British and French forces. There are similar Battlegroups in Latvia, Lithuania and Finland, made up of forces from a number of NATO countries.

 
Estonia is one of the countries home one of the eight NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroups. It's the one lead at the moment by the UK.

An attack on Estonia at this moment would be a direct attack on British and French forces. There are similar Battlegroups in Latvia, Lithuania and Finland, made up of forces from a number of NATO countries.

Yes. Denmark also has its soldiers as part of that force. Are countries that do not have forces present going to send reinforcements? For instance, those that have forces in one of the other Baltic countries that is not attacked?

What happens if the Russians stop their advance (in case there is any), and declare they are not going any further? Are NATO forces willing to expend their own forces trying to push the Russians out?
 
Yes. Denmark also has its soldiers as part of that force. Are countries that do not have forces present going to send reinforcements? For instance, those that have forces in one of the other Baltic countries that is not attacked?

What happens if the Russians stop their advance (in case there is any), and declare they are not going any further? Are NATO forces willing to expend their own forces trying to push the Russians out?
Yes
 
What happens if the Russians stop their advance (in case there is any), and declare they are not going any further? Are NATO forces willing to expend their own forces trying to push the Russians out?
I hope that at this point, everyone involved has learned that the answer is yes. At least in my opinion, speaking as a civilian who doesn't have all the intel the actual armed forces have.
 
Estonia is one of the countries home one of the eight NATO Enhanced Forward Presence Battlegroups. It's the one lead at the moment by the UK.

An attack on Estonia at this moment would be a direct attack on British and French forces. There are similar Battlegroups in Latvia, Lithuania and Finland, made up of forces from a number of NATO countries.


One of my work colleagues has a daughter in the Royal Signals. She's recently finished her second (IIRC) tour of Estonia.
 

Modi is either naive or a good actor (or he's hoping to snatch the next Nobel peace prize from under Trump's nose) …

  • Modi says India will support every peace effort to stop fighting
  • Modi tells Putin war needs cessation of hostilities for humanity's sake
  • TASS says Putin briefs Modi on progress of Russia's special military operation
- Will he support all peace efforts, or only those coinciding with Putin's wishes ?
- Putin has amply shown he doesn't care a fig about humanity, and stated on several occasions that should he Russia be refused the prominent role Russia thinks it deserves in the world's affairs, he'd be ready to take the world down with him Russia.
- and Tass's answer confirms that Putin has not intent to stop …
 
German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said russia was behind the recent failed drone attack on a German airport NATO uses to send military goods to Ukraine.

Germany has ordered the closure of the russian consulate in Bonn and also of something called the russian House in Berlin, which 'many observers have said has been used for espionage and to spread Russian propaganda.'

Germany says Russia behind Leipzig airport drone attack​

 
German interior minister Alexander Dobrindt said russia was behind the recent failed drone attack on a German airport NATO uses to send military goods to Ukraine.

Germany has ordered the closure of the russian consulate in Bonn and also of something called the russian House in Berlin, which 'many observers have said has been used for espionage and to spread Russian propaganda.'

Germany says Russia behind Leipzig airport drone attack​

Just posted that in the Hybrid Warfare thread

 
Technical question. At what point we call it WW3 ? When Europe is directly involved ? When US joins in ? Or is some country from Africa needed ?
My two cents: World War 3 begins when most/all of the world is fighting. Which it likely won't be even if all of the Western world is suddenly at all-out war with russia (which wouldn't even be a particularly long war, one way or the other). Chances are you won't see most of Asia, Africa, Central and South America, and Oceania start actively fighting for Ukraine or russia. WWII became a world war because the white people had already colonized most of the world, that's not the case today.

Even so, I'm sure that if there was a brief NATO-russian scrap, a lot of people in the West would call it WW3 even though most of the world would be neutral.
 

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