Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

[Aridas]

Of course Musk designed the Cybertruck.

Just because, at last check, Musk likely did not "design" the Cybertruck. Technically. The working design is attributed to Franz von Holzhausen and his team. Musk was undisputedly the originator behind the overall concept, though, and had plenty to do with the outward looks. In particular, the 1982 movie Blade Runner has been invoked as playing a major role in Musk's inspiration/design demands... which honestly invokes multiple yellow and red flags about Musk all on its own.

 

[Trausti]

You posed Musk as if he was just like Newton. He is really, really not. You trying to move the goalposts here doesn't change that at all. To be clear, at no point have I denied Musk's actual meaningful contributions to his various companies, though I certainly object to blind hype and stealing credit from those who actually did the work and earned it and piling it onto Musk, as you seem quite intent upon doing as you belittle "all those smart engineers."

Without Musk those engineers could not have done what they did. Musk does not steal credit from his engineers. To the contrary, he often praises them.

"Smart" lends itself to lots of conflation and subjectivity and you are certainly making use of that. Musk is certainly good at some things, yes. He's pretty crappy when it comes to various other things, though. What you had decided to invoke quite falls into that second group, despite you trying to pretend that it was in the first. That's what got called out, regardless of how you're trying to move the goalposts.

Compared to what? Compared to who? Compared to the randos on this forum? This all just silly envy.

 

[Trausti]

Just because, at last check, Musk likely did not "design" the Cybertruck. Technically. The working design is attributed to Franz von Holzhausen and his team. Musk was undisputedly the originator behind the overall concept, though, and had plenty to do with the outward looks. In particular, the 1982 movie Blade Runner has been invoked as playing a major role in Musk's inspiration/design demands... which honestly invokes multiple yellow and red flags about Musk all on its own.

How? That movie is a sci-fi classic.

 

[dirtywick]

Just because, at last check, Musk likely did not "design" the Cybertruck. Technically. The working design is attributed to Franz von Holzhausen and his team. Musk was undisputedly the originator behind the overall concept, though, and had plenty to do with the outward looks. In particular, the 1982 movie Blade Runner has been invoked as playing a major role in Musk's inspiration/design demands... which honestly invokes multiple yellow and red flags about Musk all on its own.

it was also supposed to be a gigacast exoskeleton and all that, remember. but turned out what actually happened is they bought a bunch of sheet metal they couldn't use for starship that was too rigid to bend, so instead they cut it into triangles and glued it to a unibody frame, so it looks how it looks

 

[bruto]

Who told you that night doesn't fall on the Moon?

A lunar night lasts about 14 Earth days. You should know that during that period, the temperature drops to about -133 celsius. But if you feel that might be too chilly, don't worry. During the lunar day (also about 14 Earth days) the temperature goes up to 121 celsius - you can make a cup of tea by leaving your water outside in the sunshine.

This is how we know that Musk is talking bollocks.

I am surmising that most of the time most of the people on the moon are going to be indoors, and not under the normal conditions of life on earth. So yes, I suppose it was a mistake to put it that way, but I doubt very much that the normal cycle of lunar days will have much bearing on what one does inside one's lunar cocoon.

 

[Aridas]

Without Musk those engineers could not have done what they did. Musk does not steal credit from his engineers. To the contrary, he often praises them.

That still doesn't change what you said or that what was pointed out was as a result of and response to that. Trying to change the subject to a completely different and more defensible position is not a defense for what you said before.

Compared to what? Compared to who? Compared to the randos on this forum? This all just silly envy.

I'll just take this as you simply playing dumb again, at this point.

How? That movie is a sci-fi classic.

I'm willing to agree that it's a classic. That doesn't mean that it's good design inspiration. To poke at a couple examples...

Basing inspiration for a truck design on a fantasy flying car from a 40 year old movie? Yellow flag, right there.

Adding that it's a dystopian future movie? Red flag.

Going a bit further, when Musk described it as “It’s an armored personnel carrier from the future – what Bladerunner would have driven.”? Red flag because Musk was intentionally claiming to be producing and selling APCs into civilian hands. Yellow flag about how well he understood and remembered the movie both because he used "Bladerunner" as the driver and claimed that a vehicle that would be quite poor for the main character's usage would be what was driven. Red flag because the job of "blade runners" pretty much came down to being contracted slave executioners who were looked down on by those hiring them.

More can be poked at, but the dystopian future shown in that story was really, really not one to aspire towards and the vehicle designs that Musk chose as inspiration were made to play into the unpleasant future theme.

 

[Helen]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087760446212522196

Most humans gain self-awareness somewhere between 15 and 24 months after birth. I wonder if he'll ever get there.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Who told you that night doesn't fall on the Moon?

A lunar night lasts about 14 Earth days. You should know that during that period, the temperature drops to about -133 celsius. But if you feel that might be too chilly, don't worry. During the lunar day (also about 14 Earth days) the temperature goes up to 121 celsius - you can make a cup of tea by leaving your water outside in the sunshine.

This is how we know that Musk is talking bollocks.

To be fair, any lunar base that doesn't kill off its inhabitants within a few months is going to have to be so deep underground that you'll never know if it's night or day.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

No.

The SpaceX stock price is not related to reality. It wasn't related to reality even when it was at its low point of $107.



I've never said that. Elon Musk had already made his money before the retail investors got a look in.

That said, SpaceX probably is finished because it is losing money at a horrendous rate, largely thanks to the xAI/Twitter acquisition which saddled it with enormous liabilities.


When are you going to admit that data centres in space are no more than a fantasy and nobody has yet found a way to make AI profitable?

I would say that SpaceX was always going to be problematic from a going concern point of view, as it delivered a product for which there is no market.

I think the best outcome for investors was that the US DoD would step in and buy the company to fold into NASA. Now that option is gone, there's no good ones left.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

https://twitter.com/x/status/2087760446212522196

Lad, how unaware can one man be?

 

[Helen]

Lad, how unaware can one man be?

Most humans gain self-awareness somewhere between 15 and 24 months after birth. I wonder if he'll ever get there.

Great minds, obviously

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

That really misses the point. Without Musk, there is no SpaceX. Tesla is a failed start up. There is no Neuralink. The reason all those smart engineers were able to do all that great stuff is because Musk gave them the opportunity. To say that Musk isn't smart is just stupid. But, obviously, he could not have come up with all these engineering solutions by himself. Yet, he was the driving force for it all to come together. He's the risk taker. He's the one who strived to do what other said could not be done. I think of Apple computer and the two Steves. One was a brilliant engineer. The other was a brilliant businessman. If Woz had not met Jobs, his Apple One would have just been this neat circuit board collecting dust in his garage. He'd show it to his grandkids from time to time. They'd act interested.

He has only really done 2 innovative things, the charging network for electric vehicles (electric cars have been in production since 1884), and Starlink.

What he has failed at:

Boring Company
Hyperloop
"new" Roadster
Full Self Driving
Solar City
Semi. None of what was promised has been delivered
Robovan
Cybertaxis
AI generating child porn
Monumental failure of the Cybertruck
Twitter/X
Mars base
Robots

Failure after failure, broken promise after broken promise.
Why anyone takes a word out of his mouth seriously is beyond me.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

He has only really done 2 innovative things, the
charging network for electric vehicles (electric cars have been in production since 1884), and Starlink.

What he has failed at:

Boring Company
Hyperloop
"new" Roadster
Full Self Driving
Solar City
Semi. None of what was promised has been delivered
Robovan
Cybertaxis
AI generating child porn
Monumental failure of the Cybertruck
Twitter/X
Mars base
Robots

Failure after failure, broken promise after broken promise.
Why anyone takes a word out of his mouth seriously is beyond me.

Neither are innovative though, and Galaxy Nazi likely had no involvement in either process.

Charging networks have been around for at least a decade before Tesla's and all Tesla did was to mak theirs faster than other US ones, and over the air satellite based internet has been around even longer, except using fewer and bigger satellites that didn't pollute LEO as badly or die within five years.

 

[Darat]

Interesting piece on Twitter's success since Musk bought it:

SpaceX’s Earnings Show Elon Wiped Out Two-Thirds Of Twitter’s Ad Business

When SpaceX filed for its IPO, we went through the S-1 to point out just how far off the mark Elon Musk’s predictions about his Twitter takeover turned out to be. Indeed, the failure of Twitt…

www.techdirt.com

tldr; he's not on track to reach $12 billion from ads in 2027, ad revenues are down 2/3 since he bought Twitter.

 

[jeremyp]

That really misses the point. Without Musk, there is no SpaceX.

That doesn't mean there are no rocket launch companies

Tesla is a failed start up.

Facts not in evidence. In fact, with an investor with a better attitude, it's quite possible Tesla would be doing much better. Musk actually put the Roadster in danger by constantly meddling with the design. He's almost certainly responsible for the fact that Tesla hasn't produced a new car model (except Cybertruck, ha ha) for six years.

There is no Neuralink.

That would be a good thing. I'm not in favour of torturing animals for no good reason. There are, or were, plenty of other people doing good research into the field without being morally questionable about it.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

What he has failed at:

…Full Self Driving…

Stipulated that, to date, FSD has been woefully over-promised and under-delivered.

But it remains a work in progress, and what it CAN do right now is quite remarkable. If other autonomous driving technologies leapfrog it to fruition - which is appearing more and more likely - only then might it rightfully be labeled a failure. We’ll see what the future holds.

 

[jeremyp]

I dunno. The Cybertruck is not for me. But the people I know who bought one fricking love them.

I'm sure some people fricking loved the Edsel. Cybertruck is a failure regardless.

 

[jeremyp]

I am surmising that most of the time most of the people on the moon are going to be indoors, and not under the normal conditions of life on earth. So yes, I suppose it was a mistake to put it that way, but I doubt very much that the normal cycle of lunar days will have much bearing on what one does inside one's lunar cocoon.

Yes, but the cocoon has to be able to cope with temperatures in the range of -133 to +121 C and keep the inside suitable for humans. Likely it would have to be deep underground as Guliver suggests. That would also help wth the radiation, I think. Anyway, it will be nothing like Musk's picture.

 

[jeremyp]

Stipulated that, to date, FSD has been woefully over-promised and under-delivered.

But it remains a work in progress, and what it CAN do right now is quite remarkable. If other autonomous driving technologies leapfrog it to fruition - which is appearing more and more likely - only then might it rightfully be labeled a failure. We’ll see what the future holds.

People paid for it in 2016 and it still isn't delivering.

It's a failure.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

People paid for it in 2016 and it still isn't delivering.

You do know what “stipulated” means, right? As in…

“Stipulated that, to date, FSD has been woefully over-promised and under-delivered.”