Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[dirtywick]

not sure that stock market manipulation was the primary motivation behind this excursion, but it's definitely happening. people have been cashing in on virtually every major announcement he makes for quite some time, particularly in prediction markets and crypto.

 

[jimbob]

And I am very skeptical about conspiracy theories,in this case the stock manipulation theory

There have been some very surprising moves in different markets before announcements, though.

 

[jeremyp]

I don;t think Trump needed much conning; he saw it as a way to make the hawks in the GOP happy.
I think that is the simplist explanation..Trump thugh it would go over with his base...and I am applying Occam;s razor. And I am very skeptical about conspiracy theories,in this case the stock manipulation theory.l
And of course Trump is just plain stupid.

No I don't think stock manipulation was part of the plan. The effect of the war on the markets would be too unpredictable. Also, I think they genuinely thought it would be over in a few days. That's also an argument against an Epstein distraction. If the war had gone to plan, it would have been finished weeks ago and we would be back to Epstein.

Edit: I think the market manipulation is happening btw but it's just a "windfall" that they weren't planning for.

Anyway, my point was not that the conspiracy theory is right but that it can't just be dismissed by labelling it as a conspiracy theory.

 

[jimbob]

No I don't think stock manipulation was part of the plan. The effect of the war on the markets would be too unpredictable. Also, I think they genuinely thought it would be over in a few days. That's also an argument against an Epstein distraction. If the war had gone to plan, it would have been finished weeks ago and we would be back to Epstein.

Edit: I think the market manipulation is happening btw but it's just a "windfall" that they weren't planning for.

Anyway, my point was not that the conspiracy theory is right but that it can't just be dismissed by labelling it as a conspiracy theory.

On this topic.


Perun (an Australian (civil servant?) who is involved in defence procurement) points out that there are now far easier opportunities for insider trading all the way down the chain (especially with prediction markets like Polymarket).

 

[The Atheist]

But again the question. Iran is bad, but nothing Iran does has not been done by several other Middle Eastern nations, including Israel.
So why is Iran singled out?

That's an entirely unreasonable statement.

Iran may have been complicit in terrorist attacks, but they're not actively committing genocide.

I repeat my earlier point that the leadership of Israel is under arrest warrant by the ICC, not Iran's.

There have been some very surprising moves in different markets before announcements, though.

Surprising? I think the word you're looking for is "predictable".

 

[jimbob]

Surprising? I think the word you're looking for is "predictable".

Otherwise-surprising

 

[angrysoba]

No I don't think stock manipulation was part of the plan. The effect of the war on the markets would be too unpredictable. Also, I think they genuinely thought it would be over in a few days. That's also an argument against an Epstein distraction. If the war had gone to plan, it would have been finished weeks ago and we would be back to Epstein.

Edit: I think the market manipulation is happening btw but it's just a "windfall" that they weren't planning for.

Anyway, my point was not that the conspiracy theory is right but that it can't just be dismissed by labelling it as a conspiracy theory.

The manipulation is more obvious on things like Polymarket where people can bet on decisions. If the people making bets are the same people making decisions on, say, bombing Iran, then the unpredictability is gone.

 

[Andy_Ross]

O’Leary: Just tell them… we're going to go in and take out bridge by bridge and just make it really friggin miserable for your people until you come to the table.

Phillip: That’s close to a war crime.

O’Leary: Why?

Phillip: Because you have to have a military rationale

O’Leary: You do. You say they are bringing troops over these infrastructures.

Phillip: You just said the point was to make life miserable for Iranians.

video in link

 

[Andy_Ross]

Estimated time for repairs and refit are around two years!

U.S. Navy
@USNavy
Forged by the Sea. Bound for Home.

The USS Gerald R. Ford (CVN 78) Carrier Strike Group is officially headed home after answering the nation's call.

Homecomings commence today as squadrons from Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 8 return to their respective bases. The flagship and the ships of Destroyer Squadron (DESRON) 2 will arrive in the coming days to officially conclude their deployment.

Thank you to our Sailors for your unwavering service, and to the families who supported them. Welcome home, shipmates!

link

 

[Ziggurat]

He was claiming a conspiracy, not a conspiracy theory.

He has a theory about a conspiracy. Ergo, it's a conspiracy theory.

You can't just dismiss it because many conspiracy theories are complete nonsense.

I can when there's no evidence for that theory.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Also, I think they genuinely thought it would be over in a few days. That's also an argument against an Epstein distraction. If the war had gone to plan, it would have been finished weeks ago and we would be back to Epstein.

I disagree on that point, a victory would have been talked about for weeks or months and a victorious leader can gloss over a lot. A quick decisive victory would have got a lot of the people who haven't cared about all his other sexual 'inappropriateness' back on side.

 

[jt512]

I don;t think Trump needed much conning; he saw it as a way to make the hawks in the GOP happy.
I think that is the simplist explanation..

No. The simplist explanation is that Trump recognized the importance of preventing Iran from getting a nuclear bomb, and he acted took action to prevent it.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

No. The simplist explanation is that Trump recognized the importance of preventing Iran from getting a nuclear bomb, and he acted took action to prevent it.

You mean last summer?

 

[jt512]

You guys are an empirical proof of Occam's Razor.

On the one hand, there is the one, simple explanation for why Trump attacked Iran. It's the reason he says he did it: Iran is a country run by a fanatical, apocalyptic, Jihadist death cult, who, while chanting "Death to America," have enriched 440 kg of uranium to just short of nuclear weapons grade. And by the way, they are quickly building a bulwark of missiles that would soon become an impenetrable conventional shield for their nuclear project.

On the other hand, there are an infinite number of more-complex theories that posit, in place of the straightforward one, some ulterior motive or other: Trump did it to distract from Epstein, or to placate the hawkish wing of his base, or to manipulate the stock market, and on and on ad nauseam.

There is no compelling reason to prefer one of these ulterior-motive theories over the others. Therefore, according to Occam's Razor, it is correct to prefer the simpler, more-straightforward theory.

 

[dirtywick]

the sudden urgency to act immediately, lack of planning and preparation, not informing allies or coordinating with them, and the trump admin’s past history of dishonesty and abuse of government for personal gain are all indications of an ulterior motive to me

 

[Andy_Ross]

The White House
@WhiteHouse

Bing, Bing, GONE!!!

 

[Resume]

The White House
@WhiteHouse

Bing, Bing, GONE!!!

View attachment 71179

He is 12.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

The White House
@WhiteHouse

Bing, Bing, GONE!!!

View attachment 71179

Well that's all super impressive. And the reason the Strait isn't open again is what, now?

 

[P.J. Denyer]

He is 12.

IQ?

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Well that's all super impressive. And the reason the Strait isn't open again is what, now?

Iran aren't using badly Photoshopped weapons?