Everyone on earth has to press a red or blue button. If <50% pick blue, only the red survive. If >50% pick blue, everyone survives. Choose wisely.

[Emily's Cat]

Everyone on earth has to press a red or blue button. If <50% pick blue, only the red survive. If >50% pick blue, everyone survives. Choose wisely.

This is from the dreaded twitter, but it spawned a surprising amount of discussion, and some really interesting assumptions made by each side. I'm very interested in what assumptions you're making that lead to your choice, and what assumptions you're making about the other side.

I have some speculation of my own, that I'll bring up once a fair number of people have voted. I'm hoping to daisy-chain some slightly altered polls as well, because I think relatively small changes to the starting conditions would result in very different results.

 

[PitPat]

Blue button, because I think most people on earth associate red with danger. And more than half of them won't think through the implications of the details. Especially if it's an internet poll. Thinking more kneejerk responses.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I'd press both buttons at once.

 

[Emily's Cat]

I'd press both buttons at once.

Arguably the best tactic, but sadly not possible

 

[Steve]

What is going to make me push a button? I prefer not to.

 

[PitPat]

What is going to make me push a button? I prefer not to.

I know you're Canadian but just pretend somebody has a gun at your head. Pretty easy to pretend here.

 

[ahhell]

Why is this even a question? Blue. If I pick red and I'm right, I'm stuck with a bunch of psychos.

 

[Steve]

I know you're Canadian but just pretend somebody has a gun at your head. Pretty easy to pretend here.

Half the people in the world are holding guns to the heads of the other half? The premise is ridiculous. I'll pretend my choice is to not push a button.

 

[theprestige]

Why is this even a question? Blue. If I pick red and I'm right, I'm stuck with a bunch of psychos.

Exactly. I press blue, either I get the humanity I believe in, or I cancel the humanity I don't.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Exactly. I press blue, either I get the humanity I believe in, or I cancel the humanity I don't.

Reconsider your assumptions. There is no outcome in which people who pick red die. Only blues are capable of being Thanosed out of existence.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Why is this even a question? Blue. If I pick red and I'm right, I'm stuck with a bunch of psychos.

What assumption are you making that leads to the red button pushers being psychos?

 

[PitPat]

What assumption are you making that leads to the red button pushers being psychos?

I think that assumes that every button pusher in the world has the same level of intellect.

It would depend on how detailed the written/verbal instructions were. Having decades of survey research experience, I don't have a lot of faith in how other people think unless they happen to agree with me.

Africa has a lot of people, but not a very good educational system by and large.

 

[theprestige]

Reconsider your assumptions. There is no outcome in which people who pick red die. Only blues are capable of being Thanosed out of existence.

If I'm dead, then the people I despise are just as dead to me as I am to them.

 

[GlennB]

Deleted b/s

 

[theprestige]

Obviously we don't know the consequenses of our button-push and therefore can't make an informed choice.
'Choose wisely' makes no sense here and is the equivalent of asking the roulette player to choose wisely when deciding to bet on red or black.

I'm sure game theory prescribes a wise choice. I'm just too bored by the scenario to look it up. Jimmy Donaldson is not as interesting as he pretends.

 

[junkshop]

Blue: because I'm not quite a total idiot, and I'm confidentish that that is true of a touch more than 50% of humanity.

ETA: I may have to log back into twitter/x. My misanthropy and cynicism levels appear to be worryingly low.

 

[acbytesla]

What are we doing? Culling the human species?

 

[PitPat]

What are we doing? Culling the human species?

Yes, and it all depends on whether you like red or blue.

 

[Joe Random]

What are we doing? Culling the human species?

Only if you choose Refusal. There's always Destroy, Control, or Synthesis.

(for the record, it's Destroy. Sorry, Edi)

 

[acbytesla]

Soylent Green is people!