SpaceX may yet succeed at a lander. but Musk himself doesn't seem to have anything to offer beyond threadbare science fiction memes about the Moon. As I've said before, I believe there is an organizational structure at SpaceX that keeps it functioning despite Musk's attempts to meddle.
Yeah. Musk is not SpaceX and SpaceX is not Musk.
Good one. Looking at the chart I see a little over 200 Cybertrucks sold to SpaceX this year. I'll concede that and reduce total number sold to ~117,100 instead of 117,300. Happy now?
If I was running two companies and had an opportunity to buy my own products I would - and in fact I did. It just made sense to use computers that I assembled myself. This is done all the time in private businesses and there's nothing wrong with it.
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Musk can always meddle in the business of the company as long as he owns it. But the science of the company seems safely in the hands of others.
Forever? No. Until they have a viable ship? Yes. Until they have a HLS? Probably.
yeah, too much meddling is how that changes. tesla has been in decline for a long time, idk why spacex would be any different. he's loading it up with debt and nonsense imo
What can I say? I'm a generally optimistic person.
It is supposed to be used for testing of various procedures like getting in and out of the craft. So it's probably much more than papier maché. It also tells us there is a design otherwise there would be no point in it.
SpaceX hasn't got a basic testbed for HLS. They've got a basic test bed for a rocket, that may one day get into LEO.
NASA gave him about $3 billion to build HLS. Musk is on record as saying that each time a Starship blows up it costs SpaceX $100 million. So he's burned through the best part of a third of the contract just in launches and ignoring all the design work and engineering of support infrastructure. Can he fulfil the contract with fewer than twenty more launches? I think probably not.
So what have they done with it since? What has SpaceX achieved in five years?
Delivered a second prototype for vacuum testing, as I wrote earlier.
Toward the specific goals of building a crewed lunar lander? Very little if anything.
Oh, a second prototype? Is this one going to be launched any time soon?
The entire Starship development process is geared towards building a crewed lunar lander. The HLS isn't going to be that different that it requires an entire separate design project. SpaceX has for years been saying that Starship will be their HLS.
Straw man. Launching is not the sine qua non. They are lunar lander test beds being actively tested for that purpose by the customer. This is actually the way it is typically done.
Not from what I've seen. They're doing an excellent job of figuring out how to get it to launch satellites and land in an atmosphere. As I wrote before, they haven't addressed landing in a vacuum. They haven't addressed docking. They haven't addressed human factors.
Cool. So what Starship has achieved so far is not the sine qua non of the lunar lander, either.
They're working on getting it to actually fly first. You walk before you run.
What the heck are you even talking about?
Do you have some insight into their design process that I don't?
We seem to disagree on what walking versus running entails. I would argue that SpaceX is trying to run before they walk. I’ve been doing spacecraft and launch vehicle design qualification and integration for almost 30 years. But I suppose you know best.
That's a sales brochure that essentially restates the mission requirements. They don't show any evidence they've thought much about it beyond that while they've been madly chasing a reusable Starship that can launch lots of Starlink satellites. Meanwhile NASA has two Blue Origin prototypes and/or mockups in hand with which to do active testing and design validation according to the lunar lander requirements. They are on track for their missions.
Why, yes I do. I have considerable experience in both Move Fast and Break Things and in a traditional spacecraft design life cycle. MF+BT is not an especially effective way to engineer a large crewed spacecraft on a schedule and budget. Getting mockups in the customer's hands early on is a proven success factor.
Not at all. I just don't engage in the knee-jerk reflexive antipathy that others do. Elon is a ◊◊◊◊, yes, but SpaceX is not Elon, and Elon is not SpaceX.
As SpaceX is on track for its mission schedule.
Well maybe the reason they're way behind is that they're following an untested path. My point about the comparison with Blue Origin is that I know what SpaceX is doing because they're in the news every time they do something. I haven't heard squat from Blue Origin in years. Does this mean that they're making great achievements and keeping them out of the news? I don't know.
And here was me thinking you were a lawyer.
No offense intended.SpaceX has practical experience in human factors by way of their Dragon Crew module, which is also in regular operation right now. It's a different form factor, but surely some of the design principles can carry over?