Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

[arthwollipot]

The Lander is not the launch system.

Correct. I was asking about the lander, not the launch system.

 

[GraculusTheGreenBird]

View attachment 70459

Why didn't you include Toyota's sales of electric vehicles, Roger?

 

[Roger Ramjets]

I noticed that Roger didn't include Toyota.

It sold 287,000 electrified vehicles in the US during that period. It sold 569,000 vehicles in the US during that period. This one car company delivered twenty times Tesla's total number of vehicles sold during Q1. Ford sold slightly less than Toyota.

Not BEVs. Toyota call their hybrids 'electrified' when they just have a gas engine with a tiny battery and electric motor to make it more efficient. At one time they also called their hybrids 'self charging', though they have been smacked down for that false advertising.

Lexus' Misleading Self-Charging Hybrid Ads

Norway’s Consumer Authority has put its foot down on Toyota’s ads for the Lexus NX, deeming the campaign for the "self-charging hybrid" crossover as misleading. Many people complained about Toyota’s ads in Norway for its hybrid compact vehicle, with some stating that the company's pitch was a "pure lie."

But hey, they aren't the only ones trying to mislead.

Roger keeps spinning. The EV market contracted in Q1. Tesla's sales were down 8%. Tesla may be the most dominant US EV player. But it doesn't justify it bloated stock price. It's profits is not much better than most auto manufacturers and is actually worse than others. A P/E ratio of 330 is hardly justified when most of its actual competition is under 15.

I wasn't spinning, just pointing out that Tesla makes a bit more than 'not a damn thing'. You are the one who is 'spinning' - or it a "pure lie"?

The stock price reflects the fact that Tesla came out of nowhere to beat legacy auto at their own game. Tesla produces truly innovative EVs which have defied the odds to become the best selling EVs in the US by far, while having a much greater proportion of US made parts than other 'American made' cars and trucks. But Tesla isn't sitting on its laurels. Every model is constantly being improved, and new technologies shared between vehicles as they are perfected. For example the 48V wiring and 4680 battery cells in the Cybertruck are now being used in the Tesla Semi, which goes into mass production this year. Investors think the stock is worth it because they can see the potential for growth. Of course new entrants would rather see the price crash so they can get in on the ground floor.

Yes, Tesla is down 8% in the US this year due to removal of the EV tax credit. Other automakers' EV businesses are down a lot more. Ford has basically given up, after losing $30,000 on every F-150 Lightning sold. There's a good chance that Tesla will be up over the whole year compared to 2025, despite the run on EVs last November as people rushed to get one before the tax credit ended. The war in the Middle East will probably ensure that. Legacy car companies will be kicking themslves for pulling back at just the wrong moment, while investors who stuck with Tesla will be rewarded. The others may have lower P/E ratios, but they also have much worse outlooks. Toyota's outgoing CEO openly admitted that they are in trouble. I wouldn't put my money in any of them (including Tesla - I'm risk-averse and happy with what I have in the bank).

 

[Roger Ramjets]

Why didn't you include Toyota's sales of electric vehicles, Roger?

I'm not sure why Toyota wasn't included in that chart, perhaps the figures weren't available when it was made. According to Cox Automotive (as reported yesterday), Toyota sold a total of 10,042 EVs in Q1 2026. That's 8.5% of Tesla's 117,300. If we include the 4,456 Lexus EVs that rises to 12.4%. IOW Tesla outsold the Toyota group by more than 8 times.

But again, that wasn't why I posted that chart. Why do people keep moving the goalposts each time they are called out on a lie? The reason is in the title of this thread - Musk. Somehow lying is acceptable when he's the target.

 

[Darat]

Is it? SpaceX is farther along than anyone else. Has Blue Moon actually got off the ground yet?

Will SpaceX be able to fundamentally alter its approach to research, design and engineering to enable it to use its current experience to design and build the lander?

 

[Darat]

I noticed that Roger didn't include Toyota.

It sold 287,000 electrified vehicles in the US during that period. It sold 569,000 vehicles in the US during that period. This one car company delivered twenty times Tesla's total number of vehicles sold during Q1. Ford sold slightly less than Toyota.

Roger keeps spinning. The EV market contracted in Q1. Tesla's sales were down 8%. Tesla may be the most dominant US EV player. But it doesn't justify it bloated stock price. It's profits is not much better than most auto manufacturers and is actually worse than others. A P/E ratio of 330 is hardly justified when most of its actual competition is under 15.

That's because the "stock market" is disconnected from such things as actual profit, it is now nothing but a casino.

 

[Darat]

I'm not sure why Toyota wasn't included in that chart, perhaps the figures weren't available when it was made. According to Cox Automotive (as reported yesterday), Toyota sold a total of 10,042 EVs in Q1 2026. That's 8.5% of Tesla's 117,300. If we include the 4,456 Lexus EVs that rises to 12.4%. IOW Tesla outsold the Toyota group by more than 8 times.

But again, that wasn't why I posted that chart. Why do people keep moving the goalposts each time they are called out on a lie? The reason is in the title of this thread - Musk. Somehow lying is acceptable when he's the target.

It's the Musk reality distortion field....

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

Is it? SpaceX is farther along than anyone else. Has Blue Moon actually got off the ground yet?

Unless they've moved pretty rapidly in the last six months, SpaceX's lunar lander is paper renderings of a long upright sausage shape with very few details.

It does not work with the conditions in which it will be used and will be a nightmare if even the slightest thing goes wrong. What you need in a lander is something low to the ground that's as easy as possible to get in and out of, not something you need to climb a twenty metre ladder to do so.

 

[Darat]

Unless they've moved pretty rapidly in the last six months, SpaceX's lunar lander is paper renderings of a long upright sausage shape with very few details.

It does not work with the conditions in which it will be used and will be a nightmare if even the slightest thing goes wrong. What you need in a lander is something low to the ground that's as easy as possible to get in and out of, not something you need to climb a twenty metre ladder to do so.

A major issue I have is what I mentioned above, SpaceX does not have a design and engineering "philosophy" of "make it work right first time" as we know they make no secret that they've adopted a philosophy of "rapid prototyping, frequent testing, and continuous improvement". It may be that their approach is the best philosophy to adopt in their current business, but I can't see how it can be adopted to the design of a lunar lander. The expense of sending multiple landers to the moon to test each iteration would be beyond astronomical, many aspects can of course be tested without an actual landing but in the end the first time it lands with people it has to be a case of "make it work right first time".

 

[Roger Ramjets]

That's because the "stock market" is disconnected from such things as actual profit, it is now nothing but a casino.

So you weren't around in 1929, or 1987, or 2008?

In 1987 the New Zealand stock exchange crashed by 60% over 5 months. Some say our economy never fully recovered from it. That was 39 years ago, but to me it was like yesterday. In 1987 I lost $7,000 that I loaned to a friend, when his computer business crashed. It didn't worry me that much. I was interested in the technology and this was just the price I paid to be a part of the industry.

I feel the same way about Tesla. The technology is what interests me. If the stock is 'overvalued', so what? So long as the company has sufficient resources to continue developing new products I'm happy. Maybe they don't pan out and the company folds, but if they do pan out the stock will be worth what it trades for and more. Again I don't care about that. What I do care about is seeing robotaxis, electric semis and autonomous robots. Tesla might not get all the way there, but whatever they manage to achieve will be worth it.

 

[a_unique_person]

A major issue I have is what I mentioned above, SpaceX does not have a design and engineering "philosophy" of "make it work right first time" as we know they make no secret that they've adopted a philosophy of "rapid prototyping, frequent testing, and continuous improvement". It may be that their approach is the best philosophy to adopt in their current business, but I can't see how it can be adopted to the design of a lunar lander. The expense of sending multiple landers to the moon to test each iteration would be beyond astronomical, many aspects can of course be tested without an actual landing but in the end the first time it lands with people it has to be a case of "make it work right first time".

Only two astronauts died this time. A big improvement over last time.

 

[Gulliver Foyle]

A major issue I have is what I mentioned above, SpaceX does not have a design and engineering "philosophy" of "make it work right first time" as we know they make no secret that they've adopted a philosophy of "rapid prototyping, frequent testing, and continuous improvement". It may be that their approach is the best philosophy to adopt in their current business, but I can't see how it can be adopted to the design of a lunar lander. The expense of sending multiple landers to the moon to test each iteration would be beyond astronomical, many aspects can of course be tested without an actual landing but in the end the first time it lands with people it has to be a case of "make it work right first time".

It's the "move fast, break things, walk away and hope nobody sues" approach that has so polluted tech companies.

 

[dirtywick]

So you weren't around in 1929, or 1987, or 2008?

In 1987 the New Zealand stock exchange crashed by 60% over 5 months. Some say our economy never fully recovered from it. That was 39 years ago, but to me it was like yesterday. In 1987 I lost $7,000 that I loaned to a friend, when his computer business crashed. It didn't worry me that much. I was interested in the technology and this was just the price I paid to be a part of the industry.

I feel the same way about Tesla. The technology is what interests me. If the stock is 'overvalued', so what? So long as the company has sufficient resources to continue developing new products I'm happy. Maybe they don't pan out and the company folds, but if they do pan out the stock will be worth what it trades for and more. Again I don't care about that. What I do care about is seeing robotaxis, electric semis and autonomous robots. Tesla might not get all the way there, but whatever they manage to achieve will be worth it.

if you want a company to be successful, you should hope they are using responsible financial practices. leveraging overvalued stock and being in a bad position during a crash is a good way to ensure you don't have the resources to stay in business. plus if we want to think beyond what you want and what's good for society, people have their retirement accounts tied up in this stuff, either directly or through index funds and other investments managed by people they're trusting to make good decisions. who are not acting responsibly either. their life savings. allowing companies to play games with the markets and the finance industry to shrug their shoulders and collect the fees and behave irresponsibly is really bad, it effects everyone.

 

[jeremyp]

That's their launcher. What about their lander, Blue Moon?

SpaceX, as has been pointed out, actually has a shell

The point is it is not an HLS. It's just a rocket that has never been to a stable orbit. You have seen nothing of the HLS itself except CGI renderings and a lift (which is, itself, pretty janky considering that, if it gets stuck, everybody dies). Calling the Starship upper stage that currently exists is like calling the third stage of Apollo 4 Skylab.

, and the shell has been in the air. Has anyone seen anything from Blue Origin about their lander? Bueller? Anyone?

There's a full scale engineering mock up that was delivered to NASA in 2021. That's way more than anything SpaceX has done so far.

 

[jeremyp]

Why didn't you include Toyota's sales of electric vehicles, Roger?

Or everybody else's sales of ICE vehicles.

 

[jeremyp]

The stock price reflects the fact that Tesla came out of nowhere to beat legacy auto at their own game.

No it doesn't. It's a meme stock at this point and it didn't beat legacy car makers at their own game. During most of its growth phase "legacy" car makers were not making BEV's i.e. Tesla had no serious competition. Now they are making BEVs and they are gradually eroding Tesla's market share.

When it comes to BEVs Tesla is the legacy car maker, especially when you consider that they haven't released a new model in six years (except the Cybertruck, which doesn't really count as it is truly awful and very few people want to buy it).

Tesla produces truly innovative EVs

Six years since the last one remember.

Tesla isn't sitting on its laurels.

Six years since the Model Y remember.

Every model is constantly being improved, and new technologies shared between vehicles as they are perfected. For example the 48V wiring and 4680 battery cells in the Cybertruck are now being used in the Tesla Semi,

Tesla Semi is not a car.

which goes into mass production this year.

Says who? If it's Musk, that really means this decade.

Investors think the stock is worth it because they can see the potential for growth. Of course new entrants would rather see the price crash so they can get in on the ground floor.

Tesla is not growing at all fast (in fact last year it contracted) and certainly not at a rate to justify its current stock price.

Yes, Tesla is down 8% in the US this year due to removal of the EV tax credit. Other automakers' EV businesses are down a lot more. Ford has basically given up, after losing $30,000 on every F-150 Lightning sold.

How much money does Cyvbertruck lose on every one sold?

There's a good chance that Tesla will be up over the whole year compared to 2025, despite the run on EVs last November as people rushed to get one before the tax credit ended. The war in the Middle East will probably ensure that. Legacy car companies will be kicking themslves for pulling back at just the wrong moment, while investors who stuck with Tesla will be rewarded. The others may have lower P/E ratios, but they also have much worse outlooks.

Tesla has a very bad outlook. They aren't releasing new models and the competition is getting stronger daily. They are subject to many and varied lawsuits. Their CEO is a ketamine addict who spends more time on X and playing with his space company than running his medium sized car company. I'd say Tesla's outlook is "totally ◊◊◊◊◊◊".

Toyota's outgoing CEO openly admitted that they are in trouble.

When will Tesla's (hopefully outgoing soon) CEO admit Tesla is in trouble?

 

[Darat]

So you weren't around in 1929, or 1987, or 2008?
...snip...

I think that the history of how the stock exchange companies have managed to increase their profits is fascinating, especially since their huge success with big "deregulation" legislation in the 1980s but I think that is outside the scope of this thread. My point was about the "markets" not being a rational distillation of a company's performance or an accurate assessment of future worth in terms of good old "more money in than out=good" sensibility.

 

[dirtywick]

the current stock market is often compared to those time periods.

Lang Farms, Ltd. - Stock Quotes

www.langfarms.com

also if you’re interested check out info on the buffet indicator and what percentage it was during those time periods, and what it is today

 

[acbytesla]

Not BEVs. Toyota call their hybrids 'electrified' when they just have a gas engine with a tiny battery and electric motor to make it more efficient. At one time they also called their hybrids 'self charging', though they have been smacked down for that false advertising.

Lexus' Misleading Self-Charging Hybrid Ads

But hey, they aren't the only ones trying to mislead.

I wasn't spinning, just pointing out that Tesla makes a bit more than 'not a damn thing'. You are the one who is 'spinning' - or it a "pure lie"?

The stock price reflects the fact that Tesla came out of nowhere to beat legacy auto at their own game. Tesla produces truly innovative EVs which have defied the odds to become the best selling EVs in the US by far, while having a much greater proportion of US made parts than other 'American made' cars and trucks. But Tesla isn't sitting on its laurels. Every model is constantly being improved, and new technologies shared between vehicles as they are perfected. For example the 48V wiring and 4680 battery cells in the Cybertruck are now being used in the Tesla Semi, which goes into mass production this year. Investors think the stock is worth it because they can see the potential for growth. Of course new entrants would rather see the price crash so they can get in on the ground floor.

Yes, Tesla is down 8% in the US this year due to removal of the EV tax credit. Other automakers' EV businesses are down a lot more. Ford has basically given up, after losing $30,000 on every F-150 Lightning sold. There's a good chance that Tesla will be up over the whole year compared to 2025, despite the run on EVs last November as people rushed to get one before the tax credit ended. The war in the Middle East will probably ensure that. Legacy car companies will be kicking themslves for pulling back at just the wrong moment, while investors who stuck with Tesla will be rewarded. The others may have lower P/E ratios, but they also have much worse outlooks. Toyota's outgoing CEO openly admitted that they are in trouble. I wouldn't put my money in any of them (including Tesla - I'm risk-averse and happy with what I have in the bank).

I don't care.

Tesla is selling blue sky and has been for a damn long time. Tesla is a car company promising to be a lot more. But is failing to produce much, but hot air. No doubt it is the best EV manufacturer in the auto industry. So what? It has 17% of the total worldwide BEV market share. But less than 2% of total passenger vehicle sales. I am not impressed by the fact that Tesla Semi is using the 4680 cell or 48 volt wiring.

A reckoning is coming for Tesla investors. You can only eat empty calories for so long before one discovers that they are starving to death.

 

[Fast Eddie B]

When plague311 said: “It really is irritating that Tesla seems to be valued so highly when they don't produce a damn thing”, I almost responded but on reflection I thought it might have been sarcastic in nature.

We just did a road trip to Florida and it’s crazy how many Teslas are out there. And a fair number seem to be newer, refreshed models. It’s quite a remarkable achievement.

The stock price, which has been in decline for quite some time, had a big bump yesterday. Most likely due to optimism over Tesla’s recently announced venture into chip making with Intel, optimistically call Terafab. I remain skeptical, but it will be interesting to see how this plays out long term.