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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 9

And here they claim success in kettling invaders in the Sumy region:

Honestly I feel like Urkaine is reinventing maneuver warfare from first principles, for the drone era. The best part is, they get to bypass the dead end of blitzkrieg, and stay on the main evolutionary path.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Putin wants the war to continue - Ukraine wants to end it.
That outs Russian in a veto position.
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The war is existential for both Ukraine and Putin. I don't think Putin could survive anything other than victory. Despite his best efforts, there are ambitious people around him who would want to be ruler.

I still don't understand why Prigozhin stopped. He must have known that Putin would have him killed. I thought everyone in his situation knew that if one attacked Caesar one had to win. But his mutiny showed a vulnerability of Putin and that (in the least surprising news ever) Putin would try to negotiate a peace until he's strong enough to kill any rival
 
theprestige said:
And here they claim success in kettling invaders in the Sumy region:

Honestly I feel like Urkaine is reinventing maneuver warfare from first principles, for the drone era. The best part is, they get to bypass the dead end of blitzkrieg, and stay on the main evolutionary path.
Click to expand...
They are replacing light artillery and air strikes with drones.
Similar to WW2 when the Germans replaced artillery with dive bombers which allowed Blitzkrieg tactics to work. It similarly reinvented maneuver warfare.
 
jimbob said:
I still don't understand why Prigozhin stopped. He must have known that Putin would have him killed. I thought everyone in his situation knew that if one attacked Caesar one had to win. But his mutiny showed a vulnerability of Putin and that (in the least surprising news ever) Putin would try to negotiate a peace until he's strong enough to kill any rival
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This never made sense to me either. Prigozhin seemed pretty competent and it's hard to imagine he didn't see that Putin would have him killed.
 
zooterkin said:
I can only think that he left his family or someone else he cared for unprotected, and Putin was able to apply pressure that way.
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Yes I assumed that but was still surprised he either hadn't accounted for that or even cared
 
Looks like there might actually be a ceasefire, if only for 32 hours:

  • Ukraine and Russia appeared to be on the brink of what could be their first official theatre-wide ceasefire since the February 2022 full-scale invasion after Vladimir Putin acquiesced to concerted offers by Volodymyr Zelenskyy of a pause in hostilities to mark Orthodox Easter, which is observed this weekend. The 32-hour ceasefire would start on Saturday afternoon.
  • Zelenskyy responded early on Friday: “Ukraine has repeatedly stated that we are ready for reciprocal steps. We proposed a ceasefire during the Easter holiday this year and will act accordingly … People need an Easter without threats and a real move towards peace, and Russia has a chance not to return to attacks even after Easter.”
  • The Kremlin attempted to portray the initiative as its own: “We assume that the Ukrainian side will follow the example of the Russian Federation,” said a statement. “Orders have been issued for this period to cease hostilities in all directions.” Russia left itself an opening, though, for continuing armed action: “Troops are to be prepared to counter any possible provocations by the enemy, as well as any aggressive actions,” said the Kremlin statement.
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My suggestion for Ukraine would be to remain skeptical, but it would be nice for both sides to enjoy at least a little time to themselves.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
Putin wants the war to continue - Ukraine wants to end it.
That puts Russian in a veto position.
Click to expand...
I disagree. I think Putin wants the war to end just as badly as Ukraine does. But, like Ukraine, he can't really afford to end it without having something to show for it. He has to at least capture enough territory to make it spinnable as a success.

Ukraine, on the other hand, seems to have set a victory condition for itself of "unite all 24 Ukrainian oblasts under Ukrainian rulle." I.e., kill more Russians.
 
Orbán Viktor
@PM_ViktorOrban
💰 Brussels demands billions for Ukraine. Loans that will never be repaid, backed by our money. Have the bureaucrats gone mad? We will not pay for a war that is not ours. We will not give our children, our sons, our weapons, or our money to Ukraine. Not now, not ever.

Link
 
theprestige said:
I disagree. I think Putin wants the war to end just as badly as Ukraine does. But, like Ukraine, he can't really afford to end it without having something to show for it. He has to at least capture enough territory to make it spinnable as a success.

Ukraine, on the other hand, seems to have set a victory condition for itself of "unite all 24 Ukrainian oblasts under Ukrainian rulle." I.e., kill more Russians.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure Putin's regime could survive the peace. Even with something to show. There will still be a lot of veterans who will feel betrayed and not all of them will be physically disabled or dead.

I can easily imagine quite a boost to separatist movements. I saw it pointed out that the Chechnya is increasingly independent - in some ways Kadryrov's regime has more freedom from Putin than Belarus.The other Caucasian republics must also be unstable.
 
theprestige said:
I disagree. I think Putin wants the war to end just as badly as Ukraine does. But, like Ukraine, he can't really afford to end it without having something to show for it. He has to at least capture enough territory to make it spinnable as a success.

Ukraine, on the other hand, seems to have set a victory condition for itself of "unite all 24 Ukrainian oblasts under Ukrainian rulle." I.e., kill more Russians.
Click to expand...
there is nothing that would compensate for the million men lost and the wounded. The Economy will crash from the transfer from War to Peace as wages will drop and oligarchs will once again take most of the wealth.
as jimbob said, without a truly massive victory, he will get dissidents on both sides: those who think the war should never have been started and those who think it should never have ended.
He can't help pissing of the first, but he can delay the ire of the second for as long as possible.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
there is nothing that would compensate for the million men lost and the wounded. The Economy will crash from the transfer from War to Peace as wages will drop and oligarchs will once again take most of the wealth.
as jimbob said, without a truly massive victory, he will get dissidents on both sides: those who think the war should never have been started and those who think it should never have ended.
He can't help pissing of the first, but he can delay the ire of the second for as long as possible.
Click to expand...
I was also looking at the casualties. It's not Vietnam or even the Russian invasion of Afghanistan.

The casualties are closer to the US casualties of WWII and with a population that is a similar size to the US in WWII.
 
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