Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[Planigale]

Why would you advertise your lack of knowledge and understanding?

It wasn't an entirely serious remark. I think you have a sense of humour failure!

 

[Planigale]

In a way, the US and Israel could have learned from Gaza and Lebanon. Whilst Israel has serially decapitated the many hydra like heads of Hamas, and tried to provoke regime change, Hamas still exists. Whilst Israel successfully (and criminally) took out many Hezbollah members and decapitated Hezbollah, Hezbollah is still resisting the Israeli occupation forces. The idea that Iran would collapse like Venezuela, failed to recognise that Iran had learnt from Gaza and Lebanon.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Confused Trump, 79, Blows Secret Plot to Make War Seem Legal

Donald Trump made another awkward slip of the tongue while trying to rebrand his war against Iran. The 79-year-old president discussed the conflict during Wednesday evening’s National Republican Congr...

www.yahoo.com

trump's pitch to fundraisers included him saying he was avoiding using the word war because he was trying to skirt congressional approval

How is this a new concept to you? It's been kind of the standard since WW2. Everything since then has been an "operation", and many of them haven't had congressional approval.

The "War on Terror" did have congressional approval, and has never actually ended.

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Iran-linked hackers breach FBI director's personal email, publish photos and documents

The FBI confirmed Director Kash Patel's emails had been targeted.

www.reuters.com

How would they tell if he's making a face?

Kush Patel has Resting Andrew-Mountbatton-Windsor-Being-Arrested Face.

 

[Ziggurat]

It wasn't an entirely serious remark.

Do you mean it was partly serious, or are you using understatement for humorous effect?

 

[Emily's Cat]

many south Asian countries are having a very hard time coping with the lack of oil, declaring extra holidays and telling government employees to stay home.
Tens of millions of people relying on propane for cooking have nothing to cook with.

Geopolitically, this is probably the point at which these countries will decide to pivot to China and away from the US, which is not causing this amount of pain for nothing but selfish reasons.

That's going to be interesting, since China has previously imported around 70% or so of its oil... and the bulk of that came from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia. None of those are currently providing oil to China, and they're more or less running on reserves. I doubt China is going to start exporting their reserves to anyone.

Look, I know you guys think everything is currently being done for some petty tantrum. I doubt I'll be able to change your mind. Just try to remember that Russia, Iran, and China are aggressor nations that are enemies of the entire western world and all of them would happily destroy ALL of the democracies you claim to love.

In the last few years, Russia has demonstrated that it really hasn't progressed beyond cold war tech, and is far less of a threat than we thought it was. Iran's military infrastructure has been severely handicapped with extremely minimal impact on the civilian population, and it's developing nuclear program is at a standstill and on track to be eradicated. China's oil supply has been cut off.

You can hate Trump all you want - they're an incredibly unlikable person. But short of China and Russia launching old nukes... the largest threats to world peace and the democratic west have nearly been neutralized with very little bloodshed. China, Russia, and Iran are not your friends - all of them would happily kill every one of us and dance on our graves. They are your enemies whether they've declared it openly or not.

You're free to interpret the actions of the past year as US imperialism if it makes you feel better. But at least step back and consider that yanking the rug out from under aggressor nations has some benefits to you.

 

[Emily's Cat]

He's been told Iran has been bombed to rubble so that's what he thinks he's looking at when he looks at the East Wing.

I would assume that the video clips of targeted strikes against Iranian military assets that the White House releases with celebratory (and often humorous) music would suggest that Trump is aware that Iran hasn't been "bombed to rubble". That's kind of the point of highly targeted and accurate strikes - it doesn't bomb a country to rubble.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

China, unlike the current US admin, has been properly preparing for this war since before the 12 day war last year - it has huge oil reserves, comfortably being able to ride out this current slowdown - and it's only a slowdown, as Iran is letting its ships through for a toll of $1-2 million apiece.

Unless you think that the US will be able to permanently stop oil going to China, this is NOT some clever plan. At best, it's a stupid one. It probably is none at all.

What is actually happening right now is that everyone, everywhere, is building up alternative energy sources, mostly solar and wind, and the batteries to store the power, as fast as they can at any price.
And where are they buying it from?
China.

looks the the $1 trillion surplus will not be a one-off.

Seriously, China has long surpassed the US where is actually matters. Time to open your eyes and face that fact.

 

[Emily's Cat]

it certainly isn't losing - unlike the US and Israel, which are fast running out of Missiles and Interceptors. Not to mention the billions spend each day, or the mounting number of dead and wounded.

You can fantasizes all you want, but it's going to be China, not the US, which is going to come out ahead at the end of this conflict.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

it is odd that you think it's funny that Trump broke the newest, most expensive Aircraft Carrier in the world, making years of repairs necessary and blocking a dock to build more.

Do you have any idea how much faster China can build ships, planes, tanks, missiles and drones than the US?

 

[Ziggurat]

Seriously, China has long surpassed the US where is actually matters. Time to open your eyes and face that fact.

Tell me you don't know anything about China without telling me you don't know anything about China.

China's military is a Potemkin farce, political corruption is rampant, debt levels are crushing, their economy depends on perpetual and unsustainable government subsidies, real estate is a catastrophy waiting to wipe out a generation of wealth and cripple local governments, and Xi's political paranoia will prevent economic dynamism that might rescue them.

But it still gets worse. China is facing demographic collapse. Which means there is no possibility that China in 50 years can still be the power that it is right now, no matter what reforms they institute. And as long as Xi is in power, there's basically no chance of any serious reform either. China is not rising. It's on the precipice of a slide down. Which makes it very, very dangerous.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

you have very antiquated, entirely US-centric ideas.

The US is facing demographic collapse, as it is destryoing the most important tool for economic growth: immigration.
And tell me - why does China have such a surplus and the US does not if it's doing so poorly?

China is doing what Japan tried, only successfully- automation and robots. Listen to US Car maker CEOs and their description of automated Chinese factories. China can do the same work with far fewer people because of this.

its current economic troubles are intentionally self-inflicted to reign in a private sector that got a bit too uppity for the Party's taste.
They are temporary and reversible. China has huge cash reserves and resources. And it has made Russia its Vassal.

Betting against China has not paid off for anyone in the last couple of decades.

 

[Planigale]

Do you mean it was partly serious, or are you using understatement for humorous effect?

It was partly serious in that Trump has alienated his neighbours, it was exaggerating with an attempt at humour the comparison with Taiwan. (FWIW I won't include this in my next stand up comedy gig!)

 

[Planigale]

That's going to be interesting, since China has previously imported around 70% or so of its oil... and the bulk of that came from Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and Saudi Arabia. None of those are currently providing oil to China, and they're more or less running on reserves. I doubt China is going to start exporting their reserves to anyone.

Look, I know you guys think everything is currently being done for some petty tantrum. I doubt I'll be able to change your mind. Just try to remember that Russia, Iran, and China are aggressor nations that are enemies of the entire western world and all of them would happily destroy ALL of the democracies you claim to love.

In the last few years, Russia has demonstrated that it really hasn't progressed beyond cold war tech, and is far less of a threat than we thought it was. Iran's military infrastructure has been severely handicapped with extremely minimal impact on the civilian population, and it's developing nuclear program is at a standstill and on track to be eradicated. China's oil supply has been cut off.

You can hate Trump all you want - they're an incredibly unlikable person. But short of China and Russia launching old nukes... the largest threats to world peace and the democratic west have nearly been neutralized with very little bloodshed. China, Russia, and Iran are not your friends - all of them would happily kill every one of us and dance on our graves. They are your enemies whether they've declared it openly or not.

You're free to interpret the actions of the past year as US imperialism if it makes you feel better. But at least step back and consider that yanking the rug out from under aggressor nations has some benefits to you.

I can accept Russia as an aggressor nation, I think Iran is more aggressed upon than aggressor, the only aggression China has done is invading Tibet. The US is far more aggressive than Russia, Iran and China combined (just count countries attacked by US military vs countries attacked by militaries of Russia, Iran and China combined).

Iran (the ayatollahs) have clearly said WMD is sinful and Iran won't develop WMD. They wouldn't when Iraq (then a US client) attacked Iran with mass nerve gas attacks including Iranian cities, and they were clear they wouldn't make nuclear weapons. One thing about a theocracy is they do have a moral compass. Iran absolutely wouldn't want to kill everyone, that is un-Islamic.

China has demonstrated no desire to kill people, other than its own citizens. (Arguably Iran likewise has killed more of its own citizens than others). Even Russia I don't think has a significant desire to kill people, capture them maybe.

The US is responsible for 5,000,000+ deaths since 9/11. Russia, Iran, China combined don't match that. The country that seems happy to kill both its own and mostly other people is the US (particularly under Trump).

 

[Ziggurat]

you have very antiquated, entirely US-centric ideas.

The US is facing demographic collapse, as it is destryoing the most important tool for economic growth: immigration.

Illegal immigration isn't an engine for economic growth. And China has no significant immigration at all. By every demographic measure, China is doing far worse than we are. They're also doing worse than they publicly admit.

And tell me - why does China have such a surplus and the US does not if it's doing so poorly?

They have a trade surplus because they've built their economy on exports. But it's not sustainable.

China is doing what Japan tried, only successfully- automation and robots.

Bwahahahahahaha!
Watch all the way to the 1:01:00 mark (it starts at 59:00), the payoff is worth it.

Listen to US Car maker CEOs and their description of automated Chinese factories. China can do the same work with far fewer people because of this.

You don't actually understand the problem with demographic decline. It isn't just a matter of fewer workers. What's far more debilitating is the ratio of workers to non-workers. And that's headed into VERY bad territory for China.

its current economic troubles are intentionally self-inflicted to reign in a private sector that got a bit too uppity for the Party's taste.

No. That's an explanation for why they've turned the screws on companies like Ali Baba. But it's got little to do with what's been going wrong with real estate.

They are temporary and reversible.

No. Their real estate crisis is not reversible. If you think it is, you don't understand the nature of the problem. And there's no reason to expect that they will reverse their other economic troubles.

China has huge cash reserves and resources.

China has foreign exchange reserves of around $3.3 trillion. That is indeed impressive. They also have a national debt of about $18.7 trillion.

Their key resource advantage is rare earths, but the reason they have that advantage isn't because rare earths are hard to fine anywhere else, it's because they moved more aggressively to mine what they had. Which the world was previously willing to let them do rather than develop their own rare earth sources. But now that China is threatening access to their rare earths, everyone else is waking up to that threat. And alternative sources are under development. They will not keep their current dominance in rare earths for very long.

And it has made Russia its Vassal.

And what a vassal it is. Russia faces demographic collapse as well. They can grow old and die together.

Betting against China has not paid off for anyone in the last couple of decades.

Over the last couple of decades, China's growth has been fueled by economic growth and a rising population. Economic growth is stalling, and their population is already past its peak.

Demographics is destiny. Their destiny is bleak.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

China is facing demographic collapse. Which means there is no possibility that China in 50 years can still be the power that it is right now, no matter what reforms they institute. And as long as Xi is in power, there's basically no chance of any serious reform either. China is not rising. It's on the precipice of a slide down. Which makes it very, very dangerous.

If what you say is true then it's very good news. The world is grossly overpopulated. China took drastic steps to curtail their population, and it seems to have worked. Nevertheless they are by far the biggest polluter right now. But they are taking 'drastic' steps to curtail that too. We may be able to avoid climate catastrophe after all.

Wars are horrible, but they are nothing compared to what's coming for us if we don't get to net zero soon. Billions will die, and life won't be worth living for many of those who survive. Wars can be useful too. This current Iran war is doing more to get us off oil than all the incentives being offered by western countries. It's very good news for smaller, poorer countries who can't do much about it themselves. That's why I'm rooting for Iran, and the US too so long as the hostilities continue. Some Americans will die, but that's a sacrifice we should be willing to make. In the long run millions who don't deserve to die will be saved.

 

[Ziggurat]

I can accept Russia as an aggressor nation, I think Iran is more aggressed upon than aggressor, the only aggression China has done is invading Tibet.

You don't know what's happening in the South China Sea, do you? You also don't know what they did in Vietnam either.

Iran (the ayatollahs) have clearly said WMD is sinful and Iran won't develop WMD.

And yet, it was trying to develop nuclear weapons.

How gullible are you?

One thing about a theocracy is they do have a moral compass.

Is that what you call suicide bombers and child soldiers? A "moral compass"?

China has demonstrated no desire to kill people, other than its own citizens.

Bwahahahahahaha!

(Arguably Iran likewise has killed more of its own citizens than others).

You say that like it's a point in their favor.

It isn't.

Even Russia I don't think has a significant desire to kill people, capture them maybe.

God damn, but that's willful blindness.

 

[Emily's Cat]

An interesting article reviewing the speed of depletion (and cost) of expensive sophosticated missiles. One point they make is that replacement of stocks will take a long time, and is dependant on resources from China. If China puts an embargo on supplies to belligerants this will significantly impact on resupply. Loses also leave the US vulnerable elsewhere in the world. Ukraine will be significantly impacted.

I'm not sure they understand the size of US stockpiles. I'm not going to research every item in there, but for consideration your article cites 1,080 JDAM munitions deployed by the US. That sounds like a lot until you realize we've got upward of 200,000 of them.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Not the allies that matter to China. For example, Japan's relationship with the US is rock solid. And China has been pissing off the Phillipines (another US ally) quite a lot lately. Have you been paying any attention to events in the South China Sea?

Most of China's neighbors hate China.

The only one that arguably likes China is North Korea.

 

[Emily's Cat]

Tech superiority only lasts as long as you have the tech.

We have the tech.