Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[jimbob]

Also, given that the reports are anonymous, it's easy and consequence free for them to outright lie or even just paint an incomplete or biased picture. It's a very common practice for people to use anonymous leaks to try to exert influence for their own ends, and you should ALWAYS treat anonymous reports with skepticism. It's quite strange that this principle is being actively discarded here. Or maybe not so strange.

This is a well appreciated issue, which is why news organisations try to develop a reputation for reliability.

I guess that Deep Throat was only an anonymous source for years, so it was wrong to investigate the Watergate burglary.

the NBC article presents the evidence. All one need do is notice it. First off, there are no claims anywhere in the article that any of these officials know what intelligence Trump is getting. Second, NONE of the sources actually make a definitive claim that aides are hiding information from Trump, only that a fear exists that they might be. In other words, the sources do not know what information Trump is getting, and cannot directly evaluate whether it's complete or not. So even if those sources are right (and they only claim to be worried about the possibility), they still don't know what Trump is being briefed on. If they did, then they would know (not worry about) whether information was being kept from Trump, and they would know what that information was.

You are missing the point. It is that he is getting THAT, highly edited information , which is basically, like the worst parody of 80s action movies, "goodies are killing baddies in spectacular explosions" which suggests that he is unable to deal with bad news. He could be getting daily 10 hour lectures* on the situation in Iran as well, but he's only likely to remember the highlight reel.

*Yeah, right.

 

[jimbob]

Because sometimes it actually is. We should expect sources with first hand knowledge to make the claim that they have first hand knowledge, because that strengthens their case. These aren't people who are reluctantly testifying under compulsion, they want the story out there. So why aren't they making the strongest case they can? Your theory is that they would deliberately downplay their own credibility. While I cannot prove they aren't doing so, the balance of probability is that they aren't doing so.

That's not how leaks work. See my comments about Watergate

 

[The Atheist]

many south Asian countries are having a very hard time coping with the lack of oil, declaring extra holidays and telling government employees to stay home.
Tens of millions of people relying on propane for cooking have nothing to cook with.

Geopolitically, this is probably the point at which these countries will decide to pivot to China and away from the US, which is not causing this amount of pain for nothing but selfish reasons.

Smart ploy. Chinese, Indian and some other tankers are making their way through without a problem.

Iran Starts To Formalize Its Chokehold On The Strait Of Hormuz With A 'Toll Booth' Regime

Traffic through the strait has fallen by 90% since the start of the Iran war, sending global oil prices skyrocketing.

www.huffpost.com

While their rebuilding costs are going to be fairly steep, Iran is doing pretty well financially, having doubled its revenue during the war so far.

Whatever else shakes out from this insane war, one thing is very apparent - China is winning in a landslide. Xi must be laughing himself to sleep every night.

 

[Ziggurat]

This is a well appreciated issue

I don't think that it is, particularly on this forum.

 

[Ziggurat]

Whatever else shakes out from this insane war, one thing is very apparent - China is winning in a landslide. Xi must be laughing himself to sleep every night.

China's military tech has been exposed as a failure. Iranian anti-ship missiles based on Chinese tech don't work. Their anti-stealth radar doesn't work. Their stealth plane probably doesn't work either. They're purging people responsible for these programs. And you think China is winning?

It is not.

 

[jimbob]

Iran-linked hackers breach FBI director's personal email, publish photos and documents

The FBI confirmed Director Kash Patel's emails had been targeted.

www.reuters.com

WASHINGTON, March 27 (Reuters) - Iran-linked hackers on Friday claimed they had accessed FBI Director Kash Patel's personal email inbox, publishing photographs of the ‌director and other documents to the internet.
On their website, the hacker group Handala Hack Team said Patel "will now find his name among the list of successfully hacked victims." The hackers published a series of personal photographs of Patel sniffing and smoking cigars, riding in an antique ⁠convertible, and making a face while taking a picture of himself in the mirror with a large bottle of rum.

How would they tell if he's making a face?

 

[Steve]

Iran-linked hackers breach FBI director's personal email, publish photos and documents

The FBI confirmed Director Kash Patel's emails had been targeted.

www.reuters.com

How would they tell if he's making a face?

Wouldn't you make a yucky face if your mailbox was hacked ?

 

[Steve]

Wouldn't you make a yucky face if your mailbox was hacked ?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

China's military tech has been exposed as a failure. Iranian anti-ship missiles based on Chinese tech don't work. Their anti-stealth radar doesn't work. Their stealth plane probably doesn't work either. They're purging people responsible for these programs. And you think China is winning?

It is not.

it certainly isn't losing - unlike the US and Israel, which are fast running out of Missiles and Interceptors. Not to mention the billions spend each day, or the mounting number of dead and wounded.

You can fantasizes all you want, but it's going to be China, not the US, which is going to come out ahead at the end of this conflict.

 

[Planigale]

An interesting article reviewing the speed of depletion (and cost) of expensive sophosticated missiles. One point they make is that replacement of stocks will take a long time, and is dependant on resources from China. If China puts an embargo on supplies to belligerants this will significantly impact on resupply. Loses also leave the US vulnerable elsewhere in the world. Ukraine will be significantly impacted.

Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance

Significant numbers of advanced munitions have been expended, revealing that battlefield dominance matters less than the industrial capacity to replenish critical stockpiles.

www.rusi.org

This asymmetry is rapidly depleting high-end stockpiles. As shown in Table 1, our Payne Institute proprietary ledger tool tracked Iran war munition expenditures, which shows coalition forces expending 11,294 munitions in the first 16 days of the conflict, at a cost of approximately $26 billion.After an initial salvo of over 5,000 munitions in the first 96 hours, the conflict has settled into a grinding trial of attrition. While Iran’s daily missile and drone attacks have fallen by 80-90% from their initial peak, the sustained pace continues to drain the coalition’s most critical assets. Accordingly, our analysis has tracked that since day 5 and after, Iranian missile and drone attacks have averaged 33 and 94 strikes per day respectively.The true strategic risk, however, is not the total expenditure but the uneven rate of depletion. Inventories of some munitions remain deep and scalable, while others – particularly long-range interceptors and precision strike weapons – are nearing exhaustion.

Given that Iran has damaged at least a dozen US and allied radars and satellite terminals, the efficiency of interception decreases; using 10 or 11 interceptors for one missile or 8 patriot missiles for one drone becomes unsustainable.

As seen in Table 3, our analysis shows the magazine abyss for the coalition is coming soon.

While the defence industrial base is producing most of these munitions at present, they are incredibly complex and difficult to surge, meaning it will likely take at least 5 years to replenish the 500 plus Tomahawk missiles already fired in the war. Worse, sourcing critical defence minerals, rare earths, and materials to make the weapons and munitions is complicated by China. China controls most of the world’s gallium and germanium, and Beijing has imposed numerous mineral export controls since 2023, to prevent the US and its allies from acquiring these necessary inputs for the defence industrial base.

The fundamental problem is industrial, governed by the immutable ‘iron triangle’ of the defence industrial base: munitions can be produced well, quickly, or cheaply, but never all three. Surging production under wartime pressure forces a choice to sacrifice ‘cheap.’ This was starkly illustrated when the US Navy required over $2 billion to replenish $1 billion in munitions expended in Red Sea operations. Applying the logic of this iron triangle, the current $26 billion bill for munitions will likely cost the coalition over $50 billion to replace just 16 days of warfighting, demonstrating the true premium of wartime industrial velocity.

 

[Planigale]

China's military tech has been exposed as a failure. Iranian anti-ship missiles based on Chinese tech don't work. Their anti-stealth radar doesn't work. Their stealth plane probably doesn't work either. They're purging people responsible for these programs. And you think China is winning?

It is not.

Even if US technology is ten times better than the Chinese, if the Chinese can produce 100 poor quality missile, drone, for every perfect sophisticated top grade missile the US has, China wins.

see article posted above

 

[The Great Zaganza]

add to that the fact some weapon systems require rare earth magnets - and the stockpile of those is running low, too.

China is getting material superiority by the one clever trick of not using theirs and not giving the US the materials to make more.

 

[Andy_Ross]

China's military tech has been exposed as a failure. Iranian anti-ship missiles based on Chinese tech don't work. Their anti-stealth radar doesn't work. Their stealth plane probably doesn't work either. They're purging people responsible for these programs. And you think China is winning?

It is not.

Well so far they haven't had to fire a shot and America is losing it's allies and influence.

 

[Ziggurat]

Well so far they haven't had to fire a shot and America is losing it's allies and influence.

Not the allies that matter to China. For example, Japan's relationship with the US is rock solid. And China has been pissing off the Phillipines (another US ally) quite a lot lately. Have you been paying any attention to events in the South China Sea?

Most of China's neighbors hate China.

 

[jimbob]

ETA: Right now... I don't really think that a ground invasion is even necessary. Almost everything the US has done in Iran has been air-based destruction of military installments, personnel, and supplies. If Iran has no functional military, leadership, or materiel, I dunno that there's really a need for ground troops. Plus, we've already got bases throughout the ME in Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, as well as naval fleets in the vicinity.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/03/26/american-troops-forced-to-withdraw-from-middle-east-bases/

Looks like Iran is defeated

American satellite firms have delayed the release of imagery by at least 14 days, making it hard to assess the damage.

But The New York Times reported that many of the 13 American bases across Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates had become close to being uninhabitable as a result of persistent strikes

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Survey: 82% of Japanese voters oppose U.S. attack on Iran | The Asahi Shimbun: Breaking News, Japan News and Analysis

The Philippines: National transport strike as Iran war creates economic crisis

Washington’s war on Iran has triggered a crippling fuel shock in the Philippines, sparking a mass transport strike and intensifying the political crisis of the US-backed Marcos regime.

www.wsws.org

Many Asian countries might not like China, but it's not causing them the hardship the US is.

 

[Ziggurat]

Many Asian countries might not like China, but it's not causing them the hardship the US is.

First off, China has been causing hardship for many Asian countries, consistently and for years. Again, do you not know what's going on in the South China Sea? Do you not know that Chinese soldiers have killed Indian soldiers within the last few years?

Second, Asian countries are aware that China could cause a lot more hardships than they are right now. For example:
Takaichi: Military attack on Taiwan would justify SDF support
You think they don't take the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan seriously? You think that wouldn't cause them hardship?

 

[Planigale]

Not the allies that matter to China. For example, Japan's relationship with the US is rock solid. And China has been pissing off the Phillipines (another US ally) quite a lot lately. Have you been paying any attention to events in the South China Sea?

Most of China's neighbors hate China.

I'm not sure that the USA's neighbours have a positive relationship with the US anymore. Not sure there is a big difference between Xi insisting Taiwan returns to being part of China and Trump insisting that Canada becomes the 51st state.

 

[Ziggurat]

Not sure there is a big difference between Xi insisting Taiwan returns to being part of China and Trump insisting that Canada becomes the 51st state.

Why would you advertise your lack of knowledge and understanding?

 

[Planigale]

An interesting article reviewing the speed of depletion (and cost) of expensive sophosticated missiles. One point they make is that replacement of stocks will take a long time, and is dependant on resources from China. If China puts an embargo on supplies to belligerants this will significantly impact on resupply. Loses also leave the US vulnerable elsewhere in the world. Ukraine will be significantly impacted.

Over 11,000 munitions in 16 Days of the Iran War: ‘Command of the Reload’ Governs Endurance

Significant numbers of advanced munitions have been expended, revealing that battlefield dominance matters less than the industrial capacity to replenish critical stockpiles.

www.rusi.org

This article does shed some light on current tactical dilemmas, the US may not have the missiles to successfully convoy tankers or indeed to picket the straight of Hormuz. Instead they may need to put boots on the ground to suppress the drone etc. attacks Iran could launch.

A further problem is the rapid depletion of missile and smart bombs means that the US (and Israel) has fewer options if the Houthi come in on the side of the Iranians. Cruise missile stocks are falling, anti-missile (and anti-drone) missiles are falling. Would the US want to divert supplies and systems to respond to the Houthis?

Tech superiority only lasts as long as you have the tech.