Abraham Lincoln predicted own death?

[thaiboxerken]

If Lincoln never dreamed of death until these two incidences, it still doesn't make them any more mysterious.

 

[Rodney]

If Lincoln never dreamed of death until these two incidences, it still doesn't make them any more mysterious.

What, then, would it take to convince you that there could be such a thing as a prophetic dream?

 

[thaiboxerken]

If the dream was actually written down and declared prophetic BEFORE the prophecied event happens. And if it was actually accurate.

 

[Tirdun]

Two problems with all "prophetic dreams":

1: They are entirely hit-biased. There is no measurement of misses, or of how accurate the "hit" is. If I dream of wrecking my car and I never wreck my car, I'll likely never remember having that dream. If I -almost- wreck my car, if I see a car wreck, if someone at work tells me he wrecked his car, etc then suddenly the memory is triggered and I've had a prophetic dream. I may even misremember the dream to inflate the similarity to what really happened.

2: Assuming the possibility even exists, the well has already been poisoned by frauds. If there are "dreamers" out there with some kind of power, they're so far in the minority compared to the liars that they cannot be trusted to simply state that they have the power. Every fake tempers the iron cladding around the requirements for proof.

 

[Rodney]

If the dream was actually written down and declared prophetic BEFORE the prophecied event happens. And if it was actually accurate.

What does declaring a dream prophetic beforehand have to do with anything? Suppose you give a friend a ride to the airport. On the way, (s)he says to you: "I'm glad I'm a skeptic. Otherwise, I'd take seriously a dream I had last night about the plane I'm on today crashing." Then the plane crashes. Would you say: "That doesn't count as a prophetic dream because my (late) friend didn't declare it prophetic?"

 

[thaiboxerken]

What does declaring a dream prophetic beforehand have to do with anything?

Good point. However, it would still need to be documented BEFORE the event happened.

Suppose you give a friend a ride to the airport. On the way, (s)he says to you: "I'm glad I'm a skeptic. Otherwise, I'd take seriously a dream I had last night about the plane I'm on today crashing." Then the plane crashes. Would you say: "That doesn't count as a prophetic dream because my (late) friend didn't declare it prophetic?"

Yes, yes I would. That is, unless he described to exact detail how the plane would crash. It would have to be such that interpretation isn't needed. Often, prophesies are vague. Lincoln's dream was vague as well and offered no details.

 

[Rodney]

Two problems with all "prophetic dreams":

1: They are entirely hit-biased. There is no measurement of misses, or of how accurate the "hit" is. If I dream of wrecking my car and I never wreck my car, I'll likely never remember having that dream. If I -almost- wreck my car, if I see a car wreck, if someone at work tells me he wrecked his car, etc then suddenly the memory is triggered and I've had a prophetic dream. I may even misremember the dream to inflate the similarity to what really happened.

Your analogy isn't relevant to Lincoln's two dreams because he discussed those dreams with others shortly after he had them. Did he also discuss other dreams that didn't come true? Nickell apparently doesn't know because he doesn't tell us.

2: Assuming the possibility even exists, the well has already been poisoned by frauds. If there are "dreamers" out there with some kind of power, they're so far in the minority compared to the liars that they cannot be trusted to simply state that they have the power. Every fake tempers the iron cladding around the requirements for proof.

I agree that no one should simply be trusted to state that they have the power to dream prophetically. However, when you have verifiable accounts of seemingly prophetic dreams, they should be carefully examined, rather than sloughed off the way Nickell sloughs off Lincoln's two dreams.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Your analogy isn't relevant to Lincoln's two dreams because he discussed those dreams with others shortly after he had them.

So the story goes.

Did he also discuss other dreams that didn't come true? Nickell apparently doesn't know because he doesn't tell us.

Does it matter? I'm pretty sure Lincoln had plenty of dreams that didn't come true, like 100% of every other person that dreams.

I agree that no one should simply be trusted to state that they have the power to dream prophetically. However, when you have verifiable accounts of seemingly prophetic dreams, they should be carefully examined, rather than sloughed off the way Nickell sloughs off Lincoln's two dreams.

Those dreams can be simply dismissed because one of them isn't even close to what happened. It involves a boat ""sailing toward a dark and indefinite shore." This dream requires pure interpretation to come up with any semblance of prophecy.

The other dream is about a funeral in the White House and the President being dead. However, it mentions not the date or even how he was assassinated. Also, there is a sequal to this other dream that you've seemed to ignore or overlooked:


Once the President alluded to this terrible dream with some show of playful humor. "Hill," said he, "your apprehension of harm to me from some hidden enemy is downright foolishness. For a long time you have been trying to keep somebody - the Lord knows who - from killing me. Don't you see how it will turn out? In this dream it was not me, but some other fellow, that was killed. It seems that this ghostly assassin tried his hand on some one else." (Lamon 1895, 116-117)

 

[Rodney]

Yes, yes I would. That is, unless he described to exact detail how the plane would crash. It would have to be such that interpretation isn't needed. Often, prophesies are vague. Lincoln's dream was vague as well and offered no details.

I think you should reexamine your standards of evidence. Otherwise, you will fall into the Carl Sagan trap of declaring: "Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" and then, even when the evidence is 99.9% conclusive regarding something (not necessarily the paranormal), finding that 99.9% conclusive isn't extraordinary enough.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Extraordinary claims DO require extraordinary evidence.

 

[Rodney]

Once the President alluded to this terrible dream with some show of playful humor. "Hill," said he, "your apprehension of harm to me from some hidden enemy is downright foolishness. For a long time you have been trying to keep somebody - the Lord knows who - from killing me. Don't you see how it will turn out? In this dream it was not me, but some other fellow, that was killed. It seems that this ghostly assassin tried his hand on some one else." (Lamon 1895, 116-117)

First of all, how do you know that Lincoln wasn't "whistling by the graveyard" -- the same way that some people do when they are given bad news by a doctor, such as that they have cancer? For example, a cancer patient may tell his family that there is nothing to worry about when he, in fact, is extremely worried.

Second, and more importantly, even if you assume that Lincoln genuinely thought that the dream was about "some other fellow" (a rather big stretch, since Lincoln dreamed about the President being assassinated and Lincoln, not "some other fellow", was the President!) the dream came true. To give you another analogy, let's suppose that the night before the Dow Jones Industrial Averages fell more than 20% on a single day in October 1987, a stock broker had a dream that exactly that would happen. The next day, on his way to work, he tells several friends about the content of the dream, but dismisses it as an impossibility. Would you argue that his dismissal of it invalidates it as a prophetic dream?

 

[thaiboxerken]

First of all, how do you know that Lincoln wasn't "whistling by the graveyard" -- the same way that some people do when they are given bad news by a doctor, such as that they have cancer?

Because he wasn't told anythign by any doctor or reliable source. However, I find it interesting that you'll place more value in his dreams than his opinions of the dream, why is that?

Second, and more importantly, even if you assume that Lincoln genuinely thought that the dream was about "some other fellow" (a rather big stretch, since Lincoln dreamed about the President being assassinated and Lincoln, not "some other fellow", was the President!) the dream came true.

It's sort of spooky, but not really. Dreams "come true" often. I dreamed I had to use the bathroom lastnight, I woke up. That dream came true right away.

To give you another analogy, let's suppose that the night before the Dow Jones Industrial Averages fell more than 20% on a single day in October 1987, a stock broker had a dream that exactly that would happen. The next day, on his way to work, he tells several friends about the content of the dream, but dismisses it as an impossibility. Would you argue that his dismissal of it invalidates it as a prophetic dream?

I would argue that it is one of several reasons to dismiss the dream as being prophetic.

 

[Rodney]

Because he wasn't told anythign by any doctor or reliable source. However, I find it interesting that you'll place more value in his dreams than his opinions of the dream, why is that?

Because Lincoln's "Death of the President" dream clearly came true and his "voyage" dream arguably came true. His opinion of the dreams doesn't mean a whole lot.

It's sort of spooky, but not really. Dreams "come true" often. I dreamed I had to use the bathroom last night, I woke up. That dream came true right away.

Profound.

I would argue that it is one of several reasons to dismiss the dream as being prophetic.

Which leads me to argue that you belong in the Joe Nickell School of Superficial Investigative Journalism.

 

[SpartanWarrior]

Lincoln recieved death threats and several assassination attempts. I think that is why he dreamed of death. There is no need to invoke the supernatural in this case.

Yeah, and keep in mind the butchery of the times. Death upon more death upon more death.........the slaughterhouse that was the Civil War. It's a wonder he didn't dream about dying every night.....

 

[thaiboxerken]

Because Lincoln's "Death of the President" dream clearly came true and his "voyage" dream arguably came true. His opinion of the dreams doesn't mean a whole lot.

No, he had a dream about death. He died. This "voyage" dream didn't even come close to becoming true.

Which leads me to argue that you belong in the Joe Nickell School of Superficial Investigative Journalism.

You are simply being woo here. Dreams happen, sometimes they coincide with events that happen as well. That doesn't mean there is some prophecy going on. There is no scientific evidence that people can see the future.

 

[Tirdun]

"sailing toward a dark and indefinite shore." can be interpreted anyway you want. Any negative upcomming event, the death of someone he cared about, a stretch of ill health, a sudden economic problem... the list goes on. As president at the very end of the Civil War, Lincoln surely had a litany of potential pitfalls facing him. Shockingly, it could refer to actual travelling. Lincoln could have been planning to go to the South, or to Europe, or anywhere else a president might need to go. It is frustratingly vague.

As for Lincoln's interpretation, isn't that the point of your post above (#20?) that he was reporting his feeling from within the dream? If he saw a body in the white house and didn't think it was his own, surely that speaks volumes about the failure of this so-called prophetic dream.

 

[Rodney]

As for Lincoln's interpretation, isn't that the point of your post above (#20?) that he was reporting his feeling from within the dream? If he saw a body in the white house and didn't think it was his own, surely that speaks volumes about the failure of this so-called prophetic dream.

No, as described in Lincoln's below account, the face of the corpse was covered, so it couldn't be identified. However, his account states: "Who is dead in the White House?" I demanded of one of the soldiers. "The President," was his answer; "he was killed by an assassin!" So, it's quite clear that the dream referred to his assassination. His subsequent interpretation seems to be at attempt to spin the dream into something much less ominous. Here is Lincoln's own account of the dream:

About ten days ago, I retired very late. I had been up waiting for important dispatches from the front. I could not have been long in bed when I fell into a slumber, for I was weary. I soon began to dream. There seemed to be a death-like stillness about me. Then I heard subdued sobs, as if a number of people were weeping. I thought I left my bed and wandered downstairs. There the silence was broken by the same pitiful sobbing, but the mourners were invisible. . . . Determined to find the cause of a state of things so mysterious and so shocking, I kept on until I arrived at the East Room, which I entered. There I met with a sickening surprise. Before me was a catafalque, on which rested a corpse wrapped in funeral vestments. Around it were stationed soldiers who were acting as guards; and there was a throng of people, some gazing mournfully upon the corpse, whose face was covered, others weeping pitifully. "Who is dead in the White House?" I demanded of one of the soldiers. "The President," was his answer; "he was killed by an assassin!" Then came a loud burst of grief from the crowd, which awoke me from my dream. I slept no more that night; and although it was only a dream, I have been strangely annoyed by it ever since.

 

[thaiboxerken]

His prophesy failed. He did not wake up to find some other president dead in the White House.

 

[allanb]

... let's suppose that the night before the Dow Jones Industrial Averages fell more than 20% on a single day in October 1987, a stock broker had a dream that exactly that would happen. The next day, on his way to work, he tells several friends about the content of the dream, but dismisses it as an impossibility. Would you argue that his dismissal of it invalidates it as a prophetic dream?

Irrelevant, I think. It might have been a prophetic dream, and his dismissal of it might have been a mistake on his part.

 

[Garrette]

Not necessarily. The problem with Joe Nickell's analysis of the two dreams is that it doesn't take into account their timing nor explore how often President Lincoln discussed (or even remembered) his dreams. The "mysterious voyage" dream took place the very night before Lincoln's assassination and the "death of the President" dream took place just a short time prior to that. Now, if throughout his life Lincoln routinely discussed his dreams and those dreams ran the gamut of topics from A to Z (including dreams of voyages and death), Nickell's analysis would have more validity. However, if it was very unusual for Lincoln to discuss his dreams and he had never previously discussed dreams of voyages and death, that would largly invalidate Nickell's analysis. So, I would suggest that Nickell needs to get hold of a few biographies of Lincoln and see what he can turn up in this area.

Good points, but as you criticize Nickell for incompleteness this is just as incomplete.

There are several populations you are leaving out in your own analysis.

What of all other presidents who were not assassinated but dreamed of it? Perhaps there were none, or perhaps presidents are not in habit of making such dreams public unless they have been emotionally worn down over several years by a brutal war and vicious personal attacks and the disapproval of much of their own party and the mental deterioration of their wife.

Then, too, there is no reason I can think of to limit the population to non-assassinated presidents. I should think it would be more honest to include all non-assassinated people and determine if they had dreams of assassination.

And, of course, we must consider other presidents who were assassinated. Did they have such dreams? If not, then how do we determined it to be statistically significant that this one did?

What would be mysterious is if someone who had never previously dreamed of lottery numbers dreamed of say, six numbers, and the next day those numbers proved to be the lottery jackpot winning combination.

Another population problem, I think.

You would need to determine how many people who had never dreamed of lottery numbers dreamed of six numbers, played them, and lost.

First, neither of Lincoln's dreams involved Ford's Theater, and so there was no specific reason for him not to go there. He might have avoided all public appearances for some period of time, but that would have been awkward and how would he have known when it was safe to go out again?

Bolding mine.

This, I think, demonstrates the primary weakness of your position.

The "prophetic dream" prophesized nothing of value. It did not say where it would happen and it did not say when.

It is of the same value as the yearly psychic predictions along the lines of "Trouble in the Middle East."


Finally, regardless how you spin it, the "Voyage" dream has nothing of prophecy about it.