The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

[Andy_Ross]

Iron ore carrier Stellar Banner was scuttled after running aground during a shortcut,.
Most of the iron ore was taken off and the ship and water forced out with compressed air.
After it was refloated the hull was deemed too badly damaged along the starboard side to be salvaged so the air was let out.

See how quickly it sinks in the last few minutes as bulkheads start to collapse and water floods in through the damaged hull.

Despite having a gash slong the hull side it doesn't turn turtle.

There's a longer video for those interested that starts at the point the seals are opened and the salvage men are taken off. Nothing much can be seen happening for ten minutes or so until it starts to settle, this picks it up from the bow going under

 

[W.D.Clinger]

The fatal flaw in this is that as you point out Bildt is not exactly stupid. Even if he was aware that the Russians were upset about black market military stuff heading west, he's not daft enough to think the Russians would somehow contrive to sink a ferry in a storm because a car load of electronic stuff travelled from Estonia to Sweden by that route a couple of times in the past. That's nuts.

But this time it was software disguised as heavy trucks, and the villains had to push those trucks off the ferry in mid-passage (I don't remember why, but our resident triple-niner might be able to refresh my memory), which is why they had to open the bow door, intending to close it, but a track-laying submarine gashed the ship above the waterline before they could get the door closed properly, and a big wave came along precisely at midnight (which is how we know Dick Cheney was involved), and that wave deposited a red-jacketed CIA agent on the bridge, who shot the captain, which is why the ship sank in 35", so rapidly that it suffered no damage at all when it settled on the non-pointy rocks at the bottom, which is how we know the windows were broken by the bomb that created a big gash in the ship's side, and we know it was a bomb because someone who really knows what bombs look like saw one in a photograph that was made public despite the best efforts of the evil-doers to keep their evil-doing a secret that no one in the world would ever unravel, except @Vixen.

And that's not the half of it.

 

[Steve]

But this time it was software disguised as heavy trucks, and the villains had to push those trucks off the ferry in mid-passage (I don't remember why, but our resident triple-niner might be able to refresh my memory), which is why they had to open the bow door, intending to close it, but a track-laying submarine gashed the ship above the waterline before they could get the door closed properly, and a big wave came along precisely at midnight (which is how we know Dick Cheney was involved), and that wave deposited a red-jacketed CIA agent on the bridge, who shot the captain, which is why the ship sank in 35", so rapidly that it suffered no damage at all when it settled on the non-pointy rocks at the bottom, which is how we know the windows were broken by the bomb that created a big gash in the ship's side, and we know it was a bomb because someone who really knows what bombs look like saw one in a photograph that was made public despite the best efforts of the evil-doers to keep their evil-doing a secret that no one in the world would ever unravel, except @Vixen.

And that's not the half of it.

I do appreciate these summaries (of previously properly sourced and referenced facts) being posted now and then. Helps a person stay on track.

 

[Vixen]

"Approximation" suggests that more data would give a better answer. The wrong kind of data doesn't support an approximation. Vixen doesn't seem to have a clue what the right data should be. "Approximation" suggests that refining or extending the method would give a better answer. A completely wrong method is not an approximation. Vixen's method is not just wrong, it's nonsensical.

I don't buy into the notion that a claim deserves respect simply because it states its assumptions. That doesn't stop the assumptions from being wildly wrong (especially in the face of contravening fact), or worse—evincing abject ignorance of the topic at hand.


I was going to say it's like trying to cure a headache by sawing off the patient's foot and then scolding neurologists for their purported dereliction. Stating one's assumption that sawing off a foot is a suitable approximation of brain surgery doesn't excuse you from the consequences of being patently ignorant of medicine. But yours is a lot better.

Approximation and heuristics is to do with the element of uncertainty or of missing information, or even going by past history of what one might expect., ie., a rule of thumb.

 

[Vixen]

No, it's missing, for example, submarines leaving tracks on the seabed, the bow being eaten away by nuclear waste, the mafia pushing trucks off the ship in the middle of the night to avoid losing their cargo to Swedish customs officials, the doors being opened to let out cigarette smoke, Bill Clinton ordering the smuggling of Soviet-era military gear in order "to appear as 'Middle East Peacemaker' extraordinaire", helicopter winch men being given medals to keep them quiet about not being credited with rescues that they are actually credited with...

ETA: also, a bomb being used to blow the bow visor off and sink the ship, the evidence for this being that the bomb was seen in the wreck after it sank.

Don't you think it much more likely the bow visor locks were blown off by semtex rather than a couple of strong waves..?

 

[Vixen]

The fatal flaw in this is that as you point out Bildt is not exactly stupid. Even if he was aware that the Russians were upset about black market military stuff heading west, he's not daft enough to think the Russians would somehow contrive to sink a ferry in a storm because a car load of electronic stuff travelled from Estonia to Sweden by that route a couple of times in the past. That's nuts.

Er, the Russians have no problem in shooting down passenger aircraft. Remember, we are talking about coming out of the Cold War, with a lot of resentful Soviet personnel (even Putin had to work as a cab driver).

 

[zooterkin]

Don't you think it much more likely the bow visor locks were blown off by semtex rather than a couple of strong waves..?

You are aware it's only you who is suggesting it was just a couple of strong waves?

 

[zooterkin]

Er, the Russians have no problem in shooting down passenger aircraft. Remember, we are talking about coming out of the Cold War, with a lot of resentful Soviet personnel(even Putin had to work as a cab driver).

The ferry was a plane now?

 

[JayUtah]

Don't you think it much more likely the bow visor locks were blown off by semtex rather than a couple of strong waves..?

Straw man. The actual cause was cumulative fatigue and improper ship handling.

 

[Vixen]

Ok - let's take a look at this. That is a correct quote from the site. But let's take a look at the actual notes from the interview.

The text in the notes is not in the form of questions/answers, nor is it direct quotes. It reads like notes made by a person present in the meeting.

The relevant part (enclusure 26) says:



Google translate/with my adjustments.



The German Group of Experts makes out as if this that it was Carl Bildt that was of the opinion that it was "obvious that the bow visor had opened". But when I read the original Swedish text, I read it as that was what they were told by the survivors.

This also matches how the Analysis group (led by Örn) summarizes it in their report.

Well, yes, from Helsingin Sanomat, it says 'as early as Wednesday' (this would be the same morning as the sinking) it was decided that the accident was caused by water entering the car deck, based on an interview with Sillaste (who only ever saw it on his monitor two decks below and he says the ramp door was shut):

. As early as Wednesday, it was believed that water was released from the bow gate to the Estonia car deck and brought down the ship. Henrik Sillaste, an Estonian machineman who survived the accident, said he saw on the TV monitor in the engine room control room that water was spraying in from the gate seams. Many rescued passengers also reported that the gate had leaked. The actual waterproof bow gate was behind the visor to be lifted up in estonia. If the visor attachment fails, the waves that strike the bow can throw the visor up. The visor prevents the buckthorns from hitting the bow port, which cannot withstand their force. According to experts, five to ten waves are enough to slam so much water on an open car deck that the ship capsizes. HS dated 30.9.1994 https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000003370634.html

What's interesting about this article is that it offers an alternative view from the Estonians:

Myös Silja Europalla on ongelmia keulaporttinsa kanssa. Aluksen sivulle avautuvan kaksiosaisen keulaportin yhdestä ns. ohjausrullasta on rikkoontunut laakeri, eikä keulaporttia avattu lainkaan aluksen tultua Tukholmaan torstain vastaisena yönä. Autot purettiin ja lastattiin takaportin kautta.

Europassa keulaportin takana on vesitiivis ovi, ja siinä ei ole mitään vikaa.

Valtioneuvosto asetti torstaina Suomen edustajiksi Estonian turman tutkimuskomissioon varatuomari Kari Lehtolan, Suomen meripelastusseuran toiminnanjohtajan Heimo Iivosen sekä tekniikan tohtori Tuomo Karppisen VTT:n laivanrakennuslaboratoriosta.

Viron hallituksen asettama edustus ei tyydyttänyt presidentti Lennart Merta , joka määräsi omaksi edustajakseen merikapteeni Uno Laurion . Komissiossa istuvat Viron liikenneministeri Andi Meister ja sisäministeri Heiki Arikke , jota epäillään sekaantumisesta laittomiin asekauppoihin. Muut jäsenet ovat valtion virkamiehiä.

Virossa on jo ehdity epäillä komission puolueettomuutta, sillä Viron valtio on mukana Estline-varustamossa.

Komissiossa ovat mukana Viro, Ruotsi ja Suomi. Ryhmä oli ensi kertaa koolla Turussa torstaina.

Visiiri suojelee keulaporttia Tuuli esti hylyn etsimisen Suomi nimesi tutkijansa

Helsingin Sanomat
https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000003370634.html

Google translation:

Silja Europa also has problems with her bow gate. The two-part bow gate opening to the side of the vessel is one of the so-forths. the steering roller has been broken by a bearing and the bow gate was not opened at all after the vessel arrived in Stockholm on the night of Thursday. The cars were unloaded and loaded through the back gate. There's a waterproof door behind the bow gate in Europa, and there's nothing wrong with that. On Thursday, the Government appointed Kari Lehtola, Deputy Judge, Heimo Iivonen, Executive Director of the Finnish Maritime Rescue Society, and Tuomo Karppinen, Doctor of Technology at VTT VTT's shipbuilding laboratory, as representatives of Finland. The representation set by the Estonian Government did not satisfy President Lennart Mer , who appointed Uno Laurio , a sea captain , as his own representative . Estonian Transport Minister Andi Meister and Minister of the Interior Heiki Arikke - who suspects involvement in illegal arms deals - sit on the Commission. The other members are government officials. Estonia has already doubted the impartiality of the Commission, as the Estonian State is involved in the Estline shipping company. The Commission includes Estonia, Sweden and Finland. The group met for the first time in Turku on Thursday. Visor protects bow gate Wind prevented the search for wreckage Finland named its researcher Helsingin Sanomat https://www.hs.fi/kotimaa/art-2000003370634.html

This is as early as the Friday after the early Wednesday morning sinking, bearing in mind printing press run during late evening for distribution to readers next day.

How can it be determined the accident was a simple case of 'weak design' as of having spoken to Sillaste that next morning when the three PM's met in Turku?

 

[Andy_Ross]

Don't you think it much more likely the bow visor locks were blown off by semtex rather than a couple of strong waves..?

No it's laughable

 

[Vixen]

Straw man. The actual cause was cumulative fatigue and improper ship handling.

Don't change the subject. We are talking about the first day assumption the sole cause of the sinking was a fault in the bow visor design, knowing - as we do now, but Bildt who surely knew then, at the time - smuggling of Soviet materiel and space technology secrets were being smuggled on a passenger ferry.

Please stop stonewalling and fast forwarding to the JAIC report, already concluded by April 1995.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Er, the Russians have no problem in shooting down passenger aircraft. Remember, we are talking about coming out of the Cold War, with a lot of resentful Soviet personnel (even Putin had to work as a cab driver).

No. I don't buy it. Those Russians assumed they were shooting down Ukrainian enemies.

However malevolent, amoral and stupid you assume the Russians are, the Russian way to stop black market smugglers would be to intercept them and kill them in a way that sends a terrifying and unmistakable message to others. That's obviously not what happened here, since only conspiracy nuts think the Russians did it.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Don't you think it much more likely the bow visor locks were blown off by semtex rather than a couple of strong waves..?

Not for a moment do I think they were blown off by explosives. They were torn off by the pounding of the heavy seas the ship was plunging into at reckless speed.

 

[Jack by the hedge]

Approximation and heuristics is to do with the element of uncertainty or of missing information, or even going by past history of what one might expect., ie., a rule of thumb.

So, when the tonnage of the ship is not missing information, yet your AI calculation ignores it entirely, in what way is that an approximation of the answer rather than being an answer to some other question entirely?

 

[P.J. Denyer]

The ferry was a plane now?

No the submarine was a plane, that's how it was able to hit above the waterline. At least try to keep up!

 

[Vixen]

No. I don't buy it. Those Russians assumed they were shooting down Ukrainian enemies.

However malevolent, amoral and stupid you assume the Russians are, the Russian way to stop black market smugglers would be to intercept them and kill them in a way that sends a terrifying and unmistakable message to others. That's obviously not what happened here, since only conspiracy nuts think the Russians did it.

I was rather addressing the fanciful notion that 'no nice person would sink a ferry!' Maybe that wasn't even the intent. According to Meister, it seems Capt. Andresson - who was supposedly on a hotline to Einseln - might just have wanted to get rid of some cargo, which possibly might have been no problem in the past. Open the car ramp and push the truck out. We have drug smuggler Linde claiming he saw Andresson enter the bridge as he was following him up the steps right behind him, but do we believe a word a convicted criminal says, when Meister claims Linde and Treu were coached on what to say by Einseln.

Then we have the missing Second Captain. Interpol Warrant out for his arrest. All perfectly normal, i am sure!





Then we have US company Rockwater desperately searching the room of Captain Piht and finding the briefcase of this chappie, who ran a shop (?) called 'Space Craft':

 

[LondonJohn]

Approximation and heuristics is to do with the element of uncertainty or of missing information, or even going by past history of what one might expect., ie., a rule of thumb.

LOL your attempt at "approximation" - by means of a flailing and wildly imprecise prompt to AI - was risibly and categorically wrong, by many, many orders of magnitude. The notion that you were applying solid heuristics is as amusing as it is grossly wide of the mark.

 

[LondonJohn]

I was rather addressing the fanciful notion that 'no nice person would sink a ferry!'

Who has ever suggested such an argument? You really should stop creating strawmen.

 

[Vixen]

Not for a moment do I think they were blown off by explosives. They were torn off by the pounding of the heavy seas the ship was plunging into at reckless speed.

Then why did JAIC have to hypothesize an additional 4,000 tonnes of water coming in through 'smashed windows' on passenger decks 4 and 5, which, as you can see below, if the car deck is deck 2, then those will be the decks on the blue stripes. What do you notice about the cabin windows..? Yes, they are super tough reinforced glass porthole windows designed to withstand gale force winds.