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The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

But as you know I was heavily beaten up about it so everybody is now satisfied that I got a kicking.
You were "heavily beaten up" only because you refused to divulge how you came by that answer. Now that you renewed interest in it by lately trying to claim it's still yours and still demonstrates something of value, I want you to tell us what you think it demonstrates.
 
It does. In the case of a cruising or drifting ship that passes (willingly or unwillingly) over the position of shallow submerged rocks, and suffers the kind of hull damage that striking rocks is known to cause, then yes, "it hit the rocks" does follow as the most likely explanation of the damage, unless there's clear evidence of some other cause for that same effect, or clear evidence of some additional effect that striking rocks wouldn't cause.

In the case of a sinking ship that sinks onto the position of deeply submerged rocks, and suffers the kind of hull damage that sinking onto rocks is known to cause, same conclusion. The rocks did it.

ETA: Remember that the main point here is that your suggestion that such damage from a ship striking rock is only plausible if the rock is "abnormal" and "pointy," is nonsense.


"Captain! The anchor won't hold and the storm is driving us toward the lee shore!"

"Ahoy the deck! Surf and rocks, fifty fathoms off the stern!"

"Yarr, ye sharp-eyed scurvy dog, be they abnormal rocks?"

"No, Captain, they seem much akin to such rocks as our Lord has strewn upon many a shore."

"Aye, and be they pointy?"

"No, Captain, in fact they are curvaceously contoured, indeed like unto a fair maid's bottom, the very antithesis of pointiness!"

"There, ye see, ye cowardly lubbers, there be nothing to fear. Break out the rum!"
Let's get back on point.

SCENE: early to mid-1990's. Approaching the end of the Cold War with Gorbachov's glasnost. 15 Swedish airmen had been shot down in 1952 and this was classified information not even their families knew of. Come the dismantling of the Soviet era in the Baltic states it was a softly-softly handover of the former soviet intelligence agencies and military to the Estonians, helped by Sweden and the USA.

Sept 1994, there are at least two confirmed occasions when secret materiel was ordered to be waved through customs by the then head of the Swedish military secret services, KRP [iirc] or smuggled cargo from the former USSR to the west.

28 SEPT 1994. On reaching international waters, and on or around Swedish midnight, the same ferry, the eponymous M/V Estonia sunk in super-quick time. Communications were down insofar a Third Officer, Tammes had to MAYDAY with a handheld device. He was cut off first time but he was so determined to get the co-ordinates through, we can hear Second Officer Herma shouting the coordinates out in the background.

You are PM of Sweden. You are at a leaving party because you are going to be handing over to a newly elected government shortly. At 3:00am an agent whispers in your ear there has been a terrible accident.

Question: Is your first thought:

  1. Oh, ◊◊◊◊, the bow visor must have fallen orf!
  2. OMG looks like the Soviets have retaliated as they threatened last time!
 
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You were "heavily beaten up" only because you refused to divulge how you came by that answer. Now that you renewed interest in it by lately trying to claim it's still yours and still demonstrates something of value, I want you to tell us what you think it demonstrates.
I was perfectly open, I literally have hundreds of pages in my browsing history but couldn't locate it, hardly important. But it seems people were stirred to great outrage.
 
I was perfectly open, I literally have hundreds of pages in my browsing history but couldn't locate it, hardly important.
Yes, at this point we don't care. There is no longer any controversy over the true source of the post. I mentioned the prior controversy only for historical context.

What we care about now is your late attempt to endorse and replay it as something you think you demonstrated. What do you think it demonstrates?
 
Yes, at this point we don't care. There is no longer any controversy over the true source of the post. I mentioned the prior controversy only for historical context.

What we care about now is your late attempt to endorse and replay it as something you think you demonstrated. What do you think it demonstrates?
As I said I use online calculators, dictionaries and tables all the time. For example, foreign exchange rates. I believe had that been anyone else nobody would have cared. One poster did brag recently he was conducting some kind of campaign.
 
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That I was interested enough to try to calculate the impact of the ship hitting the seabed.
Do you believe you performed the calculation correctly?

I will try to dumb down a bit in future seeing how angry it makes people.
I'm not sure it's possible to dumb down your presentation any further. And no, the problem is not your critics.
 
I am only interested in the topic. Navel-gazing has never been my scene.
You didn't answer my question. A few days ago you said,
I simply demonstrated that of course it's possible to calculate likely impact on seabed, given the specified dimensions.
Now you're telling me,
That I was interested enough to try to calculate the impact of the ship hitting the seabed.
Do you believe your attempt to calculate the impact of the ship actually demonstrates that it's possible to calculate the impact given the specified "dimensions?"
 
'Just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco' could become a phrase - a 'thing', perhaps even a meme.

As in:
We went to the Moon in 1969, just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco.
Elephants are bigger than turtles, just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco.
Lando Norris will win the 2025 F1 drivers' title, just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco.
If we are going to do philosophy, you can't prove a man didn't walk into a Tesco.
 
No, for me, it could only ever be an approximation as heuristics can point one in the right direction, as long as you make your assumptions clear.
Read through my analysis again and tell me how you think your "demonstration" approximates the true solution. Tell me which of your assumptions in that post make sense in the physics of the problem you set out to solve.
 

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