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The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

Excellent explanation, JayUtah. But it is way too long for Vixen to read. Her brain will be off chasing squirrels after the third sentence so she will never even see your concluding question, let alone attempt to answer it
I'm sure she'll just dismiss the demonstration post as a "typo" and my analysis as somehow moot. She had plenty of opportunity to disavow it before now.

For fairness' sake, it bears repeating that those are not Vixen's words. I'm sure she'll blame in on the AI being stupid—which, frankly, it is. But until the mod box appeared identifying it as an AI product, she tried to claim it as her own work. Even after suspicion grew that it was AI slop, she kept insinuating otherwise in her characteristically indirect, evasive manner. It was her job to detect and reject the slop, and she failed at it.

And this wouldn't have been an issue again except insofar as Vixen lately decided to refer back to it and equivocally suggest that it was still somehow a right answer for which she should be given credit, even though she now admits she doesn't know what she's doing.

Whats scary is that I actually understood that explanation (thanks Jay) and was able to follow it all....
And you should be justly proud of your recall. Vixen herself finally admitted that her study of physics was only up to O-level exams, and therefore long ago and only to an extent common among U.K. students. Her recall of studies completed decades ago seems to have fallen far short of the mark. But the lesson is that if you're going to pretend to know a subject, maybe don't deploy an argument that fails spectacularly and obviously at the elementary level easily detected by people with an ordinary correct knowledge of that subject. To be sure, the actual characterization of the hydrodynamics in this case involves much more advanced engineering techniques. But the detection of elementary failure doesn't always require the same professional level of expertise that is needed to achieve an ultimate success.

It comes down to the common sense of expecting people who set themselves up as judges of other people's work to be able to demonstrate some understanding of how that work should properly be done. Vixen simply can't do that here. Hence there is no reason to take her seriously.

I'm sure Vixen can imagine what she might want to do if she took some failing trust company under her wing, applied a suitably rigorous program of accounting to put its accounts in proper order, determined and alleviated causes of failure, and thus restored faith in it—only to have some uninformed interloper accuse her of malfeasance. It could be someone with a demonstrable lack of understanding, such as someone who thinks a "blind register" is a thing, or who can't tell the difference between a company directorship and a trusteeship, or wrongly believes trusts have to be approved by a court. Whatever the case, I suggest she would undoubtedly recognize the faulty premise for the judgment and rightly question that critic's command of fact and proper method.

Now it's common for there also to be a knee-jerk emotional response to such unjust criticism. And I believe a conscientious, fair-minded person would have enough introspection to realize that to respond emotionally would be less effective and mature overall than objectively pointing out first the unreliable facts that the critic has relied upon, and second the ways in which the critic's lack of specialized experience and understanding has led to indefensible judgment. It's not so much the emotional desire to lash out as it is the belief that the record can and should be set straight. The existence of error is often the only justification needed for the application of correction.

But while the issue can be addressed by looking at facts and the basis for judgment, the underlying problem is not that the critic fails to understand accountancy. It's that the critic fails to realize that his inexperience and his reliance on a questionable factual basis should give a reasonable person legitimate pause about whether to continue comment. Surely a reasonable person can't go very far down such a road before observing, "I don't know what I'm talking about." And thereafter that critic might reasonably conclude, "...and therefore I should probably keep my mouth shut." When such critics persist in judgment based on error and ignorance, it ceases to be a question of facts. judgment, or altruistic motives and becomes entirely a "personality" issue. A critic's desire to sweep his ongoing bad behavior under the carpet and propose to maintain focus on doubtful facts and inexpert judgment in the name of mere casual "interest" or perceived moral authority is an indicator of bad faith and should be responded to accordingly.
 
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I dived a couple of times at Honda Point, which sounds pretty innocuous until you learn the other names for that part of the coast; 'Devil's Jaw', 'Destroyer Rock' et cetera.
TIm Harford devoted an episode of the Cautionary Tales podcast to the worst peacetime naval catastrophe that happened there.

 
I live on the New England coast. I can show you any number of places near the mouths of bays and aside shipping channels, where seals and sea birds hang out on picturesque semi-submerged rocks that emerge at low tide. Then I'll show you the centuries-old names of those waterways, most of them involving some variation of "devil's" or "hell's," that suggest how much mariners feared (and still fear) what those smooth round rocks can do to their hulls, at any ship speed including slowly dragging at anchor.

Anyone familiar with any coastline anywhere in the world can likely do the same.
It doesn't follow that because there's rocks, it was the rocks wot did it. As I mentioned before, the entire seabed is covered in rocky outcrops, the ones sticking up above the water being called 'skerries'. The Baltic started off as a lake. Come the melting after the ice age, the entire area was flooded. The shorelines used to start much further inland, with the land slowly rising - as they say - out of the water.
 
It doesn't follow that because there's rocks, it was the rocks wot did it. As I mentioned before, the entire seabed is covered in rocky outcrops, the ones sticking up above the water being called 'skerries'. The Baltic started off as a lake. Come the melting after the ice age, the entire area was flooded. The shorelines used to start much further inland, with the land slowly rising - as they say - out of the water.
What has any of that got to do with the Estonia?

Seabed rocks are not out of the water.
 
TIm Harford devoted an episode of the Cautionary Tales podcast to the worst peacetime naval catastrophe that happened there.

Yeah, it's a dangerous area, littered with wrecks. The weather is unpredictable, there are nasty currents and it's prone to fog.
 
It doesn't follow that because there's rocks, it was the rocks wot did it.
It's by far the most likely explanation, unless you have evidence to the contrary?

As I mentioned before, the entire seabed is covered in rocky outcrops, the ones sticking up above the water being called 'skerries'. The Baltic started off as a lake. Come the melting after the ice age, the entire area was flooded. The shorelines used to start much further inland, with the land slowly rising - as they say - out of the water.
Gasp! Well, I'm sure this is news to everybody :rolleyes:
 
It doesn't follow that because there's rocks, it was the rocks wot did it.

It does. In the case of a cruising or drifting ship that passes (willingly or unwillingly) over the position of shallow submerged rocks, and suffers the kind of hull damage that striking rocks is known to cause, then yes, "it hit the rocks" does follow as the most likely explanation of the damage, unless there's clear evidence of some other cause for that same effect, or clear evidence of some additional effect that striking rocks wouldn't cause.

In the case of a sinking ship that sinks onto the position of deeply submerged rocks, and suffers the kind of hull damage that sinking onto rocks is known to cause, same conclusion. The rocks did it.

ETA: Remember that the main point here is that your suggestion that such damage from a ship striking rock is only plausible if the rock is "abnormal" and "pointy," is nonsense.


"Captain! The anchor won't hold and the storm is driving us toward the lee shore!"

"Ahoy the deck! Surf and rocks, fifty fathoms off the stern!"

"Yarr, ye sharp-eyed scurvy dog, be they abnormal rocks?"

"No, Captain, they seem much akin to such rocks as our Lord has strewn upon many a shore."

"Aye, and be they pointy?"

"No, Captain, in fact they are curvaceously contoured, indeed like unto a fair maid's bottom, the very antithesis of pointiness!"

"There, ye see, ye cowardly lubbers, there be nothing to fear. Break out the rum!"
 
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I'm sure she'll just dismiss the demonstration post as a "typo" and my analysis as somehow moot. She had plenty of opportunity to disavow it before now.

For fairness' sake, it bears repeating that those are not Vixen's words. I'm sure she'll blame in on the AI being stupid—which, frankly, it is. But until the mod box appeared identifying it as an AI product, she tried to claim it as her own work. Even after suspicion grew that it was AI slop, she kept insinuating otherwise in her characteristically indirect, evasive manner. It was her job to detect and reject the slop, and she failed at it.

And this wouldn't have been an issue again except insofar as Vixen lately decided to refer back to it and equivocally suggest that it was still somehow a right answer for which she should be given credit, even though she now admits she doesn't know what she's doing.


And you should be justly proud of your recall. Vixen herself finally admitted that her study of physics was only up to O-level exams, and therefore long ago and only to an extent common among U.K. students. Her recall of studies completed decades ago seems to have fallen far short of the mark. But the lesson is that if you're going to pretend to know a subject, maybe don't deploy an argument that fails spectacularly and obviously at the elementary level easily detected by people with an ordinary correct knowledge of that subject. To be sure, the actual characterization of the hydrodynamics in this case involves much more advanced engineering techniques. But the detection of elementary failure doesn't always require the same professional level of expertise that is needed to achieve an ultimate success.

It comes down to the common sense of expecting people who set themselves up as judges of other people's work to be able to demonstrate some understanding of how that work should properly be done. Vixen simply can't do that here. Hence there is no reason to take her seriously.

I'm sure Vixen can imagine what she might want to do if she took some failing trust company under her wing, applied a suitably rigorous program of accounting to put its accounts in proper order, determined and alleviated causes of failure, and thus restored faith in it—only to have some uninformed interloper accuse her of malfeasance. It could be someone with a demonstrable lack of understanding, such as someone who thinks a "blind register" is a thing, or who can't tell the difference between a company directorship and a trusteeship, or wrongly believes trusts have to be approved by a court. Whatever the case, I suggest she would undoubtedly recognize the faulty premise for the judgment and rightly question that critic's command of fact and proper method.

Now it's common for there also to be a knee-jerk emotional response to such unjust criticism. And I believe a conscientious, fair-minded person would have enough introspection to realize that to respond emotionally would be less effective and mature overall than objectively pointing out first the unreliable facts that the critic has relied upon, and second the ways in which the critic's lack of specialized experience and understanding has led to indefensible judgment. It's not so much the emotional desire to lash out as it is the belief that the record can and should be set straight. The existence of error is often the only justification needed for the application of correction.

But while the issue can be addressed by looking at facts and the basis for judgment, the underlying problem is not that the critic fails to understand accountancy. It's that the critic fails to realize that his inexperience and his reliance on a questionable factual basis should give a reasonable person legitimate pause about whether to continue comment. Surely a reasonable person can't go very far down such a road before observing, "I don't know what I'm talking about." And thereafter that critic might reasonably conclude, "...and therefore I should probably keep my mouth shut." When such critics persist in judgment based on error and ignorance, it ceases to be a question of facts. judgment, or altruistic motives and becomes entirely a "personality" issue. A critic's desire to sweep his ongoing bad behavior under the carpet and propose to maintain focus on doubtful facts and inexpert judgment in the name of mere casual "interest" or perceived moral authority is an indicator of bad faith and should be responded to accordingly.
That is untrue. I never claimed it was my own work or tried to pass it off as such.
 
Well, rocks in the Baltics can be a challenge... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_submarine_S-363
Weirdly, the guide at the TV-torni in Tallinn ( a tall tower built in the Soviet era but very interesting nonetheless) who was a MINE of information - knew even more than me!* - even mentioned the 'Whisky on the Rocks' incident, which to be fair, has entered into folklore in nordic parts.

*For example, I informed him the name 'Baltic' came from the latin word for 'belt'. He said, no, it comes from the Lithuanian for 'white'.
 
'Just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco' could become a phrase - a 'thing', perhaps even a meme.

As in:
We went to the Moon in 1969, just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco.
Elephants are bigger than turtles, just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco.
Lando Norris will win the 2025 F1 drivers' title, just as surely as a man walked into a Tesco.
 
That is untrue. I never claimed it was my own work or tried to pass it off as such.
As I wrote, you did so in your customary indirect fashion. When asked whether the source was an AI, you answered:
As usual, you concealed your source for as long as possible. Now lately you've tried to reframe it as something that you demonstrated. It's either your work or it isn't. We know it isn't, but you still seem to want to take credit for it.

Now that you've finally acknowledged that it exists, what do you intend it to demonstrate?
 
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Here its the reproduction of my post #3356:



To determine the force exerted when a ship hits the seabed, we need to consider the concept of pressure. Pressure is defined as force per unit area. We can calculate the force exerted by the ship using the formula:

Force = Pressure × Area

Given that the ship hits the seabed at a depth of 80 meters, we need to calculate the pressure at that depth. The pressure in a fluid increases with depth due to the weight of the fluid above. The pressure at a specific depth can be calculated using the formula:

Pressure = Density × Gravitational acceleration × Depth

The density of seawater is typically around 1,025 kilograms per cubic meter, and the gravitational acceleration is approximately 9.8 meters per second squared.

Let's calculate the force exerted by the ship:

Pressure = Density × Gravitational acceleration × Depth
= 1,025 kg/m³ × 9.8 m/s² × 80 m
≈ 803,600 Pa (Pascals)

Next, we need to determine the area over which the force is distributed. Without additional information about the shape or size of the ship's contact area, it is difficult to provide an exact value. However, we can assume a simple approximation that the area of contact is the same as the ship's bottom surface area.

Let's say the ship has a bottom surface area of 1000 square meters (just for illustration purposes).

Force = Pressure × Area
= 803,600 Pa × 1000 m²
= 803,600,000 N (Newtons)

Therefore, if the ship weighs 15,000 tonnes and hits the seabed at a depth of 80 meters, it exerts an approximate force of 803,600,000 Newtons (or 803.6 meganewtons) on the seabed. Please note that these calculations are based on estimations and assumptions, and the actual force may vary depending on the ship's design and the specific circumstances of the impact.

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"Through the veins of Otto von Grothusen’s descendants flows the blood of von Tiesenhausen, von Ungern, von Lüdinghausen, von Rosen, von Fircks ... and many other nobles, who decided the fate of the Baltic lands centuries ago." ~ Timo Kause





It is very obviously a quote.
 
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Weirdly, the guide at the TV-torni in Tallinn ( a tall tower built in the Soviet era but very interesting nonetheless) who was a MINE of information - knew even more than me!* - even mentioned the 'Whisky on the Rocks' incident, which to be fair, has entered into folklore in nordic parts.

*For example, I informed him the name 'Baltic' came from the latin word for 'belt'. He said, no, it comes from the Lithuanian for 'white'.
And you insisted that, no, it came from the Latin for belt, and you knew this because you had been told it by an elderly Scotsman or a Cockney from Dartford?
 
It is very obviously a quote.
Irrelevant. You did not attribute it to a source and you refused to attributed it when asked. You have lately tried to renew ownership of it. I'm sure you're happy to have some irrelevant detail to quibble about for the next five pages, but I want to go to the heart of the matter. What do you believe that post demonstrates?
 
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As I wrote, you did so in your customary indirect fashion. When asked whether the source was an AI, you answered:
As usual, you concealed your source for as long as possible. Now lately you've tried to reframe it as something that you demonstrated. It's either your work or it isn't. We know it isn't, but you still seem to want to take credit for it.

Now that you've finally acknowledged that it exists, what do you intend it to demonstrate?
No I didn't, I wasn't able to find the original website - because being a calculation it is hardly copyright or belonging to any author. But as you know I was heavily beaten up about it so everybody is now satisfied that I got a kicking.
 

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