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The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

This discussion happened in 2014.
Vixen's psychology degree course was most likely in the 1970s, would it have been thought valid then?
 
Don't know, but I do recall back around 1995 our University Psychology Department advised that the test was not reliable and mainly served to inspire warm fuzzies in those who took it. Don't think that was the technical term, but a psych teacher that I often lunched and played chess with said his colleagues had a much earthier term for it.
 
When was it debunked?
Decades ago. No psychologist, outside a few cranks, ever took it seriously.
Despite its popularity, the MBTI has been widely regarded as pseudoscience by the scientific community. The validity (statistical validity and test validity) of the MBTI as a psychometric instrument has been the subject of much criticism. Media reports have called the test "pretty much meaningless", and "one of the worst personality tests in existence". The psychologist Adam Grant is especially vocal against MBTI. He called it "the fad that won't die" in a Psychology Today article. Psychometric specialist Robert Hogan wrote: "Most personality psychologists regard the MBTI as little more than an elaborate Chinese fortune cookie". Nicholas Campion comments that this is "a fascinating example of 'disguised astrology', masquerading as science in order to claim respectability."
 
Don't know, but I do recall back around 1995 our University Psychology Department advised that the test was not reliable and mainly served to inspire warm fuzzies in those who took it. Don't think that was the technical term, but a psych teacher that I often lunched and played chess with said his colleagues had a much earthier term for it.

There certainly seems to have been serious criticism for 30 years at least.
 
That is a tough one for Vixen. It was yet another infantile knee-jerk post that she really doesn't understand why she made it.

Memory issues - both short and long term.
Childish knee-jerk posts.
Confusion.
Trouble understanding simple statements.
I've got ADHD and thus a pathologically poor memory and have difficulty keeping track of things, but Vixen's inability to follow a back and forth over the course of a day or even a few hours, and her inability to remember what she or anyone else has previously said, is particularly atrocious, and particularly notable given her continual boasts about her superior intellect, memory, debating skills, etc.

I do genuinely wonder if her continual non-responses to posts and inability to follow the thread are a deliberate attempt to muddy the waters by spamming the thread with nonsense, or if she is simply unaware of how badly she comes across in her ability to take part in a discussion.
 
I do genuinely wonder if her continual non-responses to posts and inability to follow the thread are a deliberate attempt to muddy the waters by spamming the thread with nonsense, or if she is simply unaware of how badly she comes across in her ability to take part in a discussion.
The goal of a conspiracy theorist is not to answer questions or resolve controversy. It instead to prolong the appearance of controversy and thereby keep themselves relevant and—if possible—the center of attention. A conspiracy theorist does not fear error or shame. A conspiracy theorist fears obscurity and the feeling that they are not special.

Tl;dr = It’s an act.
 
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The notion that a ship floats "on" some particular part of its anatomy is a Björkmanism. From my academic experience, I've noted how students always think they'll be able to get away with plagiarism, and they're always genuinely surprised at how easy it is to detect. Certain idioms are like fingerprints.

A ship is either floating or sinking. The only thing that determines which it's doing is the sign on the buoyancy value. It has absolutely nothing to do with what part of the ship is underwater or what part of it is above water. Sure, we use colloquialisms like "on its beam ends" to describe a ship in an extreme roll. But Björkman specifically tries to tie certain structural parts of the ship to assumed buoyancy behavior. Of course the JAIC didn't write about the ship "floating on its superstructure" because that's a nonsensical statement. More accurately, it's nonsensical in exactly the unique way Björkman spews nonsense. In her haste to sane-wash Björkman, she has assumed that what he says would be said in much the same way by any expert, such that her particular borrowings from him can't be firmly identified. She's out there standing in the same unique patch of weeds as Björkman, making all his characteristic mistakes without acknowledging their source.
You are missing the point. What Bjorkman was saying is that JAIC didn't appear to show its GOM and GZ calculations (for example stability at 90° list).


Chapter 12 of JAIC Report says:

Even though the list developed rapidly, the water on the car deck would not alone be sufficient to make the ship capsize and lose its survivability. As long as the hull was intact and watertight below and above the car deck, the residual stability with water on the car deck would not have been significantly changed at large heel angles (Figure 12.12). The capsize could only have been completed through water entering other areas of the vessel.
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According to the hydrostatic calculations, a continuously increasing amount of water on the car deck would make the aft windows of deck 4 the first possible flooding point to other areas (Figure 12.14). Soon thereafter the windows and the aft entrance doors of deck 5 would also be submerged. A little less than 2,000 t of water on the car deck would be sufficient to bring the first flooding points down to the mean water surface. In this condition the list would be about 35°. The lowest corner of the ramp opening would here be still a little above the mean water surface.
As soon as water was free to enter the accommodation decks all residual stability would be impaired and the ship in practice lost. Without an intact superstructure above deck 4, the largest possible equilibrium heel angle before a complete capsize would be 40°. This condition would be exceeded with about 2,000 t of water on the car deck.
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Stability calculations show that the ESTONIA would have had a small positive initial stability if the two sauna compartments and the next compartment aft on deck 0 had been flooded. The stability would have been worst at the initial phases of flooding and would have improved when more water flowed to these three compartments.
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The influence of cargo shifting was also investigated in separate studies. Due to the distribution of vehicles on deck, the maximum transverse shifting of cargo centre of gravity could have been of the order of just a few metres. Two metres of cargo shift would have the effect that the progressive flooding of deck 4 started with about 10 % less water on the car deck. https://onse.fi/estonia/chapt12_2.html
 
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Can you quit playing games and answer the simple question about what's so funny or ludicrous about the idea that the crew on the bridge would be wearing emergency gear instead of formal uniforms when the ship was foundering?
If they didn't have time to call MAYDAY how would they have time to change clothes?
 
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Vixen's psychology degree course was most likely in the 1970s, would it have been thought valid then?
Incorrect. A psychologist in the late-80's sent around a Myers-Briggs questionnaire to British Mensa members as part of some project she was doing. Whether or not you think Myers-Briggs is bunkum, simply dismissing it out of hand without even finding out its scope doesn't show scepticism, it shows closed-mindedness.
 
Don't know, but I do recall back around 1995 our University Psychology Department advised that the test was not reliable and mainly served to inspire warm fuzzies in those who took it. Don't think that was the technical term, but a psych teacher that I often lunched and played chess with said his colleagues had a much earthier term for it.
We simply called it 'pop psychology'.
 
No. Actual psychologists (and psychiatrists) never considered it valid. While it enjoyed some corporate popularity in the '70s, as it does today, it was regarded as pseudoscience.
The criticism comes from people using it as a ready job-interview tool. Rather like the online IQ tests. There is validity in psychometrics - correlation and reliability - but not in the hands of amateur HR bods or popular magazine writer puff pieces with their silly ten-question quizzes..
 
I remember that, which is why I mentioned it again here. These are phrases that people understand even when they are only casually informed and interested about the stability of ships.

Further, the notion of an "intact hull" (see Björkman's figure 1F) is another telltale. Björkman correctly begins with the intact-hull model of stability, although he just pulls all the relevant parameters out of some bilge scuttle and performs no calculations to arrive at his answers. But then he continues to use the intact-hull model after the accommodation of downflooding should have rendered it inapplicable.

Björkman's method is incorrect, but not solely in this way. Nevertheless it is egregiously wrong. In case there's any remaining doubt, his technical argument regarding MS Estonia is just as stupidly wrong from a physics perspective as his claims about nuclear weapons and space engineering.

Then at the end he offers up his own private definition of "intact hull." Not only is it at odds with the definition from naval engineering (which gives rise to the model he pretends to use), it is factually incorrect even according to his own definition. But @Vixen's ongoing misunderstanding of what constitutes an intact hull is—surprise, surprise—exactly the same characteristic, unique, wrong way that Björkman defines it. It's not a matter of being "open-minded" or an "original thinker." It's just wrong. And it's wrong in a way that points straight back only to Anders Björkman.
Well, the latest investigation - which the Swedish prosecutors have said is 'closed' and they are not investigating further - claims the breach in the hull was due to the vessel hitting a 'rocky outcrop' as it sank. OK, so there is a rocky ridge nearby (but then the whole area consists of granite boulders, a remnant from the Ice Age) but here's the thing: these rocks are not sharp and jagged as the average person not familiar with the Finnish archipelago terrain imagines they are (and even further inland) they are as smooth and round as a baby's bottom. In summer you can walk barefoot over them without fear of jagged edges. So yeah, let's see if Evertsson is the scoundrel that you make him out to be. So let's see if the forthcoming report can convince sceptics the massive holes in the hull were due to abnormal pointy rocks jabbing through, bearing in mind the resistance from falling into a body of water.
 
Well, the latest investigation - which the Swedish prosecutors have said is 'closed' and they are not investigating further - claims the breach in the hull was due to the vessel hitting a 'rocky outcrop' as it sank. OK, so there is a rocky ridge nearby (but then the whole area consists of granite boulders, a remnant from the Ice Age) but here's the thing: these rocks are not sharp and jagged as the average person not familiar with the Finnish archipelago terrain imagines they are (and even further inland) they are as smooth and round as a baby's bottom. In summer you can walk barefoot over them without fear of jagged edges.
Why bother sending divers down to examine the wreck? Why not just wait for summer and walk to it?

And do you realise that there are other ways landing on an outcrop could cause damage to the hull other than by the rocks simply punching through it?
 

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