• Quick note - the problem with Youtube videos not embedding on the forum appears to have been fixed, thanks to ZiprHead. If you do still see problems let me know.

Trump's promised ICE raids have begun

I wonder if I, a 70yo white heterosexual male, can apply for a job at ICE... I have no experience with guns, but I am willing to dress up in camo, jump out of a truck, and look for vaguely brown people if I can get that sweet, sweet sign up bonus! At least, that's what I will put in my reports, since nobody trusts stats in the USA any more.

Oh and I won't mention i am not a US citizen or resident. Let's just keep that secret to ourselves, OK?
 
AmyStrange said:
Evidence?
Click to expand...

"Removals" were up, largely as a result of handling more cases as "removals" instead of "returns". This is the recategorization I referred to. The number of "removals" is the basis for the claim that Obama deported more than Bush, with a total of just over 2 million removals under Bush to a total of just over 3 million for Obama.

But "returns" were down far more than "removals" were up (from about 8.3 million to about 2.2 million), so the total number of illegal immigrants taken off US soil was way down from Bush (10.3 million down to 5.3 million).
 
Ziggurat said:

"Removals" were up, largely as a result of handling more cases as "removals" instead of "returns". This is the recategorization I referred to. The number of "removals" is the basis for the claim that Obama deported more than Bush, with a total of just over 2 million removals under Bush to a total of just over 3 million for Obama.

But "returns" were down far more than "removals" were up (from about 8.3 million to about 2.2 million), so the total number of illegal immigrants taken off US soil was way down from Bush (10.3 million down to 5.3 million).
Click to expand...
Quoting @Ziggurat's source:
While there were fewer removals and returns under the Obama administration than each of the two prior administrations (see Table 1), those declines must be understood against the backdrop of a significant reduction in border apprehensions that resulted from a sharp decrease in unauthorized inflows, in particular of Mexicans. Analysts have attributed this trend, which began under the Bush administration, to improved economic conditions in Mexico, reduced postrecession job demand in the United States, ramped-up enforcement, and the increased use of different enforcement tactics at the border.
Click to expand...
and
These figures demonstrate the Obama administration’s focus on formal removals instead of returns, with formal removals under Obama far outpacing those of the Bush and Clinton administrations even as returns were far lower. This policy to ensure that removals have a lasting legal consequence likely reduced the number of unauthorized immigrants attempting to cross the border multiple times: Overall, recidivism along the border fell from 29 percent in FY 2007 to 14 percent in FY 2014, and was much higher for migrants given voluntary return (31 percent) than for those subjected to formal removal (18 percent), according to CDS data.
Click to expand...
As explained by ICE's current web page giving such statistics:
ICE removal data includes returns. Returns include:
  • Voluntary returns: Discretionary relief granted by an ICE officer at the border by permitting an alien to depart the United States without a removal order and related immigration consequences.
  • Voluntary departures: Discretionary relief granted in removal proceedings or by an ICE officer in lieu of removal proceedings permitting an alien to depart the United States voluntarily without a removal order and related immigration consequences.
  • Withdrawals under docket control: Discretionary relief granted by an ICE officer or immigration judge to an alien encountered at a port of entry that permits the alien to voluntarily withdraw an application for admission to the United States and depart the United States without a removal order and related immigration consequences.
Click to expand...
As can be seen from the "Removals Over Time" graph on that page, removals increased during the Biden administration, peaking at 271,484 during Fiscal Year 2024. Two thirds of those removed during FY 2024 had no criminal convictions or pending criminal charges. During FY2024, ICE detained 277,913 and arrested 113,431; over 70% of those arrested were convicted criminals or had criminal charges pending.

With almost 150,000 removals during its first six months, the Trump administration is on track to remove about 300,000 during its first year. That would be a small increase over FY 2024, and would be the largest number of removals since FY 2014, when the Obama administration removed 316,000.

(Edited to add a link and to correct grammar.)
 
Last edited:
It might be helpful to clear up @Ziggurat's confusion.
Ziggurat said:
Obama deportation numbers were a scam. He changed what counted as a deportation to include turn aways at the border, thus artificially inflating his numbers compared to previous administrations.
Click to expand...
Those "turn aways at the border" are what ICE refers to as returns.
Ziggurat said:

"Removals" were up, largely as a result of handling more cases as "removals" instead of "returns". This is the recategorization I referred to. The number of "removals" is the basis for the claim that Obama deported more than Bush, with a total of just over 2 million removals under Bush to a total of just over 3 million for Obama.

But "returns" were down far more than "removals" were up (from about 8.3 million to about 2.2 million), so the total number of illegal immigrants taken off US soil was way down from Bush (10.3 million down to 5.3 million).
Click to expand...
As defined by ICE, removals include returns. As explained by ICE, those returns include (1) voluntary returns at the border, where an ICE officer allows someone to return across the border without having to go through the rigmarole of getting a formal removal order, and (2) voluntary departures "in lieu of removal proceedings permitting an alien to depart the United States voluntarily without a removal order and related immigration consequences", and (3) withdrawals under docket control, which is "Discretionary relief granted by an ICE officer or immigration judge to an alien encountered at a port of entry that permits the alien to voluntarily withdraw an application for admission to the United States and depart the United States without a removal order and related immigration consequences."

Summarizing the paragraph above, many returns occur at the border, and almost all returns avoid "a removal order and related immigration consequences." @Ziggurat appears to have gotten that entirely backwards.
 
W.D.Clinger said:
As defined by ICE, removals include returns.
Click to expand...
The "removals" in the data I gave obviously DO NOT include "returns". You get one guess as to how to prove that just from the table. And the data on your page only goes back to 2021, so it's rather obviously not going to cover the Obama years. If they're including returns with removals now, that says nothing about whether they included returns with removals during the Obama years.
 
Ziggurat said:
The "removals" in the data I gave obviously DO NOT include "returns". You get one guess as to how to prove that just from the table. And the data on your page only goes back to 2021, so it's rather obviously not going to cover the Obama years. If they're including returns with removals now, that says nothing about whether they included returns with removals during the Obama years.
Click to expand...
It is true that Table 1 of @Ziggurat's source does not count returns as removals. To obtain a count of removals that can be compared to the removals reported by current ICE statistics, you'd add Table 1's removals to Table 1's returns, which gives you the numbers shown in that table's column for Total Deportations. Total deportations dropped from the Bush administration's 10,328,850 to 5,281,115 under Obama.

What @Ziggurat got wrong is not that current ICE statistics include returns among removals. What he got wrong is that the removals shown in his source's Table 1 are a count of "immigrants taken off US soil", while the returns shown in that table mostly consist of people returned at the border. He got that completely backwards. Once you understand what those numbers mean, you understand they mean exactly the opposite of @Ziggurat's claim that Obama's count of deportations was artificially inflated by including "turn aways at the border."

According to @Ziggurat's source: Compared to the Bush administration, the Obama administration reduced the number of returns (mostly turn aways at the border) from 8,316,311 to 2,186,907. The Obama administration increased the number of non-return removals from 2,012,539 to 3,094,208. It is those non-return removals that removed immigrants from the interior of the US and involved a formal order of removal.
 
W.D.Clinger said:
According to @Ziggurat's source: Compared to the Bush administration, the Obama administration reduced the number of returns (mostly turn aways at the border) from 8,316,311 to 2,186,907. The Obama administration increased the number of non-return removals from 2,012,539 to 3,094,208. It is those non-return removals that removed immigrants from the interior of the US and involved a formal order of removal.
Click to expand...
No, this is incorrect. "Removals" are anyone who has gone through a formal removal process with an order of removal, that part is true. People deported from the interior of the US are indeed primarily removals. But people turned away at the border are also removals if they have had that formal removal order. From my link:

"Carefully calibrated revisions to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration enforcement priorities and practices achieved two goals: Increasing penalties against unauthorized border crossers by putting far larger shares into formal removal proceedings rather than voluntarily returning them across the border, as had been longstanding practice; and making noncitizens with criminal records the top enforcement target."​

If you get a removal order at the border, you're counted as a removal, not a return. Furthermore, the fraction of removals essentially at the border wasn't small:

Eighty-five percent of all removals and returns during fiscal year (FY) 2016 were of noncitizens who had recently crossed the U.S. border unlawfully. Of the remainder, who were removed from the U.S. interior, more than 90 percent had been convicted of what DHS defines as serious crimes.​

tl;dr: they started doing a lot more removals instead of returns. Which is what I said.

ETA: you can see explicitly in Figure 1 that interior removals dropped by more than half under Obama, while border removals significantly increased.
 
Last edited:
W.D.Clinger said:
According to @Ziggurat's source: Compared to the Bush administration, the Obama administration reduced the number of returns (mostly turn aways at the border) from 8,316,311 to 2,186,907. The Obama administration increased the number of non-return removals from 2,012,539 to 3,094,208. It is those non-return removals that removed immigrants from the interior of the US and involved a formal order of removal.
Click to expand...
Ziggurat said:
No, this is incorrect.
Click to expand...
Those numbers are quoted directly from Table 1 of @Ziggurat's source. Unless @Ziggurat has decided to argue with his own source, the only thing I wrote in that paragraph he can dispute is my parenthetical remark. I note that @Ziggurat has provided no evidence against my parenthetical remark, but that parenthetical remark is not essential to the points I've been making so I'll move on to the rest of @Ziggurat's most recent disputation.

Ziggurat said:
"Removals" are anyone who has gone through a formal removal process with an order of removal, that part is true. People deported from the interior of the US are indeed primarily removals. But people turned away at the border are also removals if they have had that formal removal order.
Click to expand...
I agree with that.

But...
Ziggurat said:
From my link:

"Carefully calibrated revisions to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) immigration enforcement priorities and practices achieved two goals: Increasing penalties against unauthorized border crossers by putting far larger shares into formal removal proceedings rather than voluntarily returning them across the border, as had been longstanding practice; and making noncitizens with criminal records the top enforcement target."​
Click to expand...
That paragraph describes two goals of the Obama administration. As explained within the remainder of the article @Ziggurat is using as his source, the Obama administration achieved those goals.

Ziggurat said:
If you get a removal order at the border, you're counted as a removal, not a return. Furthermore, the fraction of removals essentially at the border wasn't small:

Eighty-five percent of all removals and returns during fiscal year (FY) 2016 were of noncitizens who had recently crossed the U.S. border unlawfully. Of the remainder, who were removed from the U.S. interior, more than 90 percent had been convicted of what DHS defines as serious crimes.​
Click to expand...
That means the Obama administration achieved much of what it set out to achieve.

Ziggurat said:
tl;dr: they started doing a lot more removals instead of returns.
Click to expand...
Yes. The Obama administration increased the number of non-return removals by about 50%, while decreasing the number of returns by almost 75%.

Ziggurat said:
Which is what I said.
Click to expand...
@Ziggurat gets credit for saying that one true thing, with which I agreed immediately above.

Here, however, is the main thing @Ziggurat was saying:
Ziggurat said:
Obama deportation numbers were a scam. He changed what counted as a deportation to include turn aways at the border, thus artificially inflating his numbers compared to previous administrations.
Click to expand...
As is clear from @Ziggurat's source, counting returns as deportations inflated Bush's numbers more than Obama's.

According to the careful apples-to-apples comparison in @Ziggurat's source, it was Bush's numbers that were inflated by counting informal "turn aways at the border" as deportations. @Ziggurat cannot reasonably call Obama's deportation numbers a scam unless he is willing to call Bush's numbers an even bigger scam.

Ziggurat said:
ETA: you can see explicitly in Figure 1 that interior removals dropped by more than half under Obama, while border removals significantly increased.
Click to expand...
Two things to note:
  1. Figure 1 excludes returns, which greatly exceeded non-return removals under Bush but declined rapidly under Obama.
  2. Returns (which do not appear within Figure 1) were voluntary, not the result of a formal order of removal.
As is clear from the gray box labelled "Enforcement Terms", @Ziggurat's source was using essentially the same definition of "return" as is still used today by ICE, and that source's definition of a "removal" meant essentially the same thing as ICE means today by a non-return removal. In particular, @Ziggurat's source uses "removal" to mean "The compulsory movement of a noncitizen out of the United States based on a formal order of removal", whereas his source uses "return" when the noncitizen's departure from the United States was "based on permission to withdraw their application for admission at the border or an order of voluntary departure." Thus the important distinction (in both @Ziggurat's source and in ICE's current definitions) between a non-return removal and a return is that a non-return removal involves a formal order of removal, but a return does not.


As @Ziggurat's source says in the paragraph immediately below Figure 1:
This decline was driven nearly entirely, as described above, by the decrease in the number of individuals voluntarily returned, rather than formally removed. From the first to second term, returns decreased significantly, from 1,609,249 to 593,104, while removals fell only slightly, from 1,575,423 to 1,518,785.
Click to expand...
That is why the total number of deportations fell from a little over 10 million during the eight Bush years to a little over 5 million during the eight Obama years.

If Obama's deportation numbers were artificially inflated by scammily counting "turn aways at the border" as deportations, then that scam was spectacularly unsuccessful.​

Which is why @Ziggurat's central claim, that "Obama deportation numbers were a scam", is refuted by his own choice of source. Obama's deportation numbers were not artificially inflated by some accounting trick. Obama's deportation numbers went down because reducing the total number of deportations was an intended consequence of deliberate policy.

As @Ziggurat's own source concluded (with my highlighting of several important words):
While the Obama administration record is characterized by much higher removals than preceding administrations, it also shows less focus on increasing absolute numbers of overall deportations and a higher priority on targeting the removals of recently arrived unauthorized immigrants and criminals. The administration also placed a much lower priority on removing those who had established roots in U.S. communities and had no criminal records. This prioritization was achieved by a slowly evolving but deliberate policy, highlighted by the administration’s November 2014 executive actions on immigration.
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
W.D.Clinger said:
Those numbers are quoted directly from Table 1 of @Ziggurat's source. Unless @Ziggurat has decided to argue with his own source, the only thing I wrote in that paragraph he can dispute is my parenthetical remark.
Click to expand...
I'm not disputing your numbers. What you got wrong is characterizing removals as being from internal territory and not the border. That is wrong.
 
W.D.Clinger said:
According to @Ziggurat's source: Compared to the Bush administration, the Obama administration reduced the number of returns (mostly turn aways at the border) from 8,316,311 to 2,186,907. The Obama administration increased the number of non-return removals from 2,012,539 to 3,094,208. It is those non-return removals that removed immigrants from the interior of the US and involved a formal order of removal.
Click to expand...
Ziggurat said:
No, this is incorrect.
Click to expand...
W.D.Clinger said:
Those numbers are quoted directly from Table 1 of @Ziggurat's source. Unless @Ziggurat has decided to argue with his own source, the only thing I wrote in that paragraph he can dispute is my parenthetical remark.
Click to expand...
Ziggurat said:
I'm not disputing your numbers. What you got wrong is characterizing removals as being from internal territory and not the border. That is wrong.
Click to expand...
In the unlikely event that @Ziggurat reads and comprehends what I wrote, he will discover I did not characterize all removals as being from internal territory and not the border.

What I did say is "It is those non-return removals that removed immigrants from the interior of the US and involved a formal order of removal."

In the preceding sentence, I highlighted a phrase @Ziggurat did not comprehend.

Edited to add: Upon reflection, I can see how someone who wasn't paying close attention might have assumed I was defining non-return removals as anything that causes a noncitizen to transfer out of the country from internal territory in response to a formal order of removal. What I was actually saying is that non-return removals are the only way to remove an immigrant from the interior of the US that involves a formal order of removal.​
​
I accept the blame for phrasing my statement so poorly that someone who was looking for some way to disagree would find a way to disagree with it.​
 
Last edited:
This seems as good a place as any.

Actor Dean Cain, probably best known for playing Superman on the TV series "Lois and Clark: The New Adventures of Superman", has announced that he's joining ICE. Ironic, considering Superman's immigration status. He had a recurring role on the CW's "Supergirl" but was reportedly cut due to personal conflicts with the cast and crew over the show's more progressive attitudes.

 
Armitage72 said:
This seems as good a place as any.

Actor Dean Cain, probably best known for playing Superman on the TV series "Lois and Clark: The New Adventures of Superman", has announced that he's joining ICE. Ironic, considering Superman's immigration status. He had a recurring role on the CW's "Supergirl" but was reportedly cut due to personal conflicts with the cast and crew over the show's more progressive attitudes.

Click to expand...
Yeah...he just might have his own ticket for the ICE Forced Departure Lounge. Pretty suspect!
Dean Cain's biological father, Roger Tanaka, was the son of John Megumi Tanaka and Miyoko Tanaka. Cain has stated that several members of his family were interned at the Minidoka War Relocation Center in Idaho. Through his biological father, Cain is of partly Japanese descent, the rest of his ancestry being Welsh, Irish and French Canadian.
Click to expand...
 
Ziggurat said:
You didn't read the article, did you? They're removing the upper age cap (previously 40), so that older people can be hired. This will bring in agents with more prior life experience, not less.
Click to expand...
And 18+ folks with no college degree. Great.

ICE really is becoming a gang of fascist thug boys.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Back
Top Bottom