Trump's promised ICE raids have begun

theprestige said:
So your hypothesis is that the US, Guatemalan, and Chilean governments are all lying about a deportee who just coincidentally happens to have the same name and birthdate as a Chilean national who died in Chile in 2019. And you think this is somehow a simpler explanation than "the family made up some anti-ICE nonsense and a local news outlet ran with it and it went viral". Glad we cleared that up.
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No, that's not my hypothesis at all, thanks for asking though.

Let me help you a little bit since you seem to be struggling. The point I was making with my statement is that, in my opinion, usually this government's first instinct about anything is to lie. We can find a ◊◊◊◊ ton of examples of them lying, and I even gave an example of just such an event going on in real-time.

See, as I'm sure you may already know, occam's razor doesn't imply that the simplest explanation is always the correct answer. Right? You knew that, right? It just says it's usually the best answer. This particular case might be an outlier. I don't know, you don't know, we just have to wait to find out.

Ziggurat said:
I keep looking around and finding that people keep lying about how ICE is acting.
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Really? Is that what you keep finding? If I spend >10 seconds of searching do you think we can find verifiable instances of ICE arresting the wrong people? Invading peoples' rights? Think we can track any of that down Zigg? Are the benefits good for being an ICE waterboy?
 
Ziggurat said:
Which inclines me to believe she probably did assault the officer, and we will probably never hear anything more about the case.
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And here is skepticism at its finest! Yes, yes, follow Zigg for more skepticism life hacks!

"Well, since there's no evidence either way I'm going to go ahead and assume the thing that confirms my bias. Haha! Take that, stupid libs!"

Textbook skepticism and top notch deductive reasoning!
 
theprestige said:
So your hypothesis is that the US, Guatemalan, and Chilean governments are all lying about a deportee who just coincidentally happens to have the same name and birthdate as a Chilean national who died in Chile in 2019. And you think this is somehow a simpler explanation than "the family made up some anti-ICE nonsense and a local news outlet ran with it and it went viral". Glad we cleared that up.
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I am sure that the neighbours will soon confirm that they haven’t seen grandpa Leon for many years?
 
steenkh said:
I am sure that the neighbours will soon confirm that they haven’t seen grandpa Leon for many years?
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Interestingly, people have already tried this. Nope, no reports of anyone by that name in Allentown PA for years, although there is a White Pages listing of a landline in that name (possibly the surviving wife who never changed the account name, or simply someone else). No one, no where, has even claimed to see this guy in this decade, save 'Nataly'.

And it's not 'the family' making the claims. It's one lone claimed granddaughter, only giving her first name. 'Nataly'.
 
steenkh said:
You are right. I apologise to you and the prestige.

But I find it hard to believe that we are talking about the same Luis Leon. The idea that the family should say “hey, what about claiming our long dead grandpa was taken by ICE” still seems to me to be disingenuous. But of course, you can never discount sheer stupidity when people make up claims.
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Apparently, in Chile you are assigned a unique govt ID number when you are born. There was only one Luis Leon born in all of Chile on his reported birthday, and he is the dead one. 'Mistaken identity/another Luis Leon' is pretty much off the table. A copy of the death certificate has been presented to the original reporting news media (The Morning Call in PA) by the Chilean reporter.
 
plague311 said:
No, that's not my hypothesis at all, thanks for asking though.

Let me help you a little bit since you seem to be struggling. The point I was making with my statement is that, in my opinion, usually this government's first instinct about anything is to lie.
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That's irrelevant, though. We already know this isn't a case of knee-jerk lying by a single government.

This particular case might be an outlier. I don't know, you don't know, we just have to wait to find out.
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The wait is over. We do know. The man died in Chile in 2019. He never made a green card appointment. He was never detained by ICE. He was never deported to Guatemala. The family made up the entire story.
 
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plague311 said:
Let me help you a little bit since you seem to be struggling. The point I was making with my statement is that, in my opinion, usually this government's first instinct about anything is to lie.
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No. The first instinct of most government employees is to cover their asses. Sometimes that leads to lying, but not always. In particular, it doesn't tend to lead to lying when the government has done no wrong, as was the case here. But even when they have done something wrong, the response isn't always to lie, often it's to try to shift the blame. Of course, they didn't need to shift blame here, because there was nothing to blame them for. Because none of it happened.
plague311 said:
See, as I'm sure you may already know, occam's razor doesn't imply that the simplest explanation is always the correct answer. Right? You knew that, right? It just says it's usually the best answer. This particular case might be an outlier.
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Why is the government lying the simpler explanation? Because governments lie? Well, so do people. A person lying isn't any more complicated (and often much less) than a government lying. So no, this isn't an outlier at all.
plague311 said:
Really? Is that what you keep finding? If I spend >10 seconds of searching do you think we can find verifiable instances of ICE arresting the wrong people?
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I don't know if you can. How about you give it a try and we'll see.
 
Thermal said:
And it's not 'the family' making the claims. It's one lone claimed granddaughter, only giving her first name. 'Nataly'.
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OK, this is a significant point, and I'll try to keep it in mind. I should not refer to "the family" in regards to the fake claims, but only to Nataly.
 
Ziggurat said:
OK, this is a significant point, and I'll try to keep it in mind. I should not refer to "the family" in regards to the fake claims, but only to Nataly.
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Truth is truth. It's the side we should all be on.

I'm picturing Nataly though, thinking she was getting some attention reporting this for some local townie news coverage, then it suddenly goes internationally viral. I feel she is going all Talking Heads right about now, saying 'my God, what have I done?'
 
theprestige said:
That's irrelevant, though. We already know this isn't a case of knee-jerk lying by a single government.

The wait is over. We do know. The man died in Chile in 2019. He never made a green card appointment. He was never detained by ICE. He was never deported to Guatemala. The family made up the entire story.
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◊◊◊◊◊◊, they shouldn't do that. I'm not here to defend them. What I said was relevant though because I wasn't referring to just this individual case but these claims in general. That's why I specifically use the word "generally".
Ziggurat said:
No. The first instinct of most government employees is to cover their asses.
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Sometimes, I disagree and it's opinion based so...
Ziggurat said:
Sometimes that leads to lying, but not always. In particular, it doesn't tend to lead to lying when the government has done no wrong, as was the case here.
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But we don't know that because they do wrong significantly more in this administration than others. The government has lied about events that lead to arresting government officials, openly. They, also, claimed they did no wrong in the beginning of that whole thing too.
Ziggurat said:
But even when they have done something wrong, the response isn't always to lie, often it's to try to shift the blame. Of course, they didn't need to shift blame here, because there was nothing to blame them for. Because none of it happened.
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Maybe in this instance, sure.
Ziggurat said:
Why is the government lying the simpler explanation? Because governments lie?
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Because this government lies at a significantly higher rate than recorded for any other U.S. government. Provably.
Ziggurat said:
Well, so do people.
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Speaking of irrelevant.
Ziggurat said:
A person lying isn't any more complicated (and often much less) than a government lying. So no, this isn't an outlier at all.
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If you say so, I disagree. Funny how that works.
Ziggurat said:
I don't know if you can. How about you give it a try and we'll see.
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I already know I can. We both know I can, one of them is about to get released on bail.
 
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plague311 said:
But we don't know that because they do wrong significantly more in this administration than others.
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We do know that, because the man in question died in 2019. It would be quite the trick to dig up his corpse, bring it to the US, give it a green card, and then deport it to Guatemala.
plague311 said:
I already know I can. We both know I can, one of them is about to get released on bail.
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Are you talking about Andrea Velez? Yeah, she's not about to get released on bail. One guess as to why, and you'll probably get it wrong.

If you're talking about someone else, I have no idea who you mean.
 
Contrary to the DOJ declaration that Garcia is never coming back to the USA, he is now in the USA and may soon be released and allowed to go back to his family in MD.
 
Hercules56 said:
Contrary to the DOJ declaration that Garcia is never coming back to the USA, he is now in the USA and may soon be released and allowed to go back to his family in MD.
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That sounds good. The prosecution seemed to bear a “personal” grudge against him, and vowed to dig up false charges that would ensure that he would stay in jail for the rest of his life. Possibly, he is left alone because the media attention has died away.

But he only got out because of media attention. One wonders how many others have been deported or jailed unjustly without media attention to get them free,
 
The Great Zaganza said:
.. sentenced to death by ICE with no evidence that they actually committed any violent crimes
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Well, I also note that with the huge numbers of people they send to the camps, there is almost certainly a number of deaths.

I wonder if they are given adequate medical treatment, though. The conditions they are kept under, and the stress will cause more deaths than usual.
 
Quoting these out of order:
Ziggurat said:
Are you talking about Andrea Velez? Yeah, she's not about to get released on bail. One guess as to why, and you'll probably get it wrong.
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I'm guessing the reason she's not about to get released on bail is that, on 26 June, she was released on $5000 bail. Now that she's out of jail, she doesn't need to be released again.
Ziggurat said:
A few pages back there was a story about a US citizen, Andrea Velez, who was arrested by ICE. Initial reporting made it sound like she was swept up for deportation because those racist ICE officers will try to deport anyone Hispanic looking. Then it turned out they arrested her for allegedly assaulting an ICE officer, not because they thought she was an illegal immigrant.

So, what's happened with the case since then? She was supposed to have another court hearing on July 17. But there's been no news coverage of that hearing. Why not? If that case was really another example of ICE abuse, I would expect continuing coverage of this injustice. Instead we get silence.

Which inclines me to believe she probably did assault the officer, and we will probably never hear anything more about the case.
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This is a nice example of expectations coloring expectations.

According to ICE, Velez was arrested for "impeding an arrest after she forcefully obstructed an ICE officer by making physical contact with him." Velez's attorney disputes that, saying "Andrea is a victim of excessive use of force by federal agents, they had no right to stop her and no right to beat her. What you see in the videos is police brutality." Velez herself has said she put her arms up to shield herself from a masked man who was charging toward her, and who did indeed grab her and, with the help of other masked men, threw her to the ground. Someone called the police to report a kidnapping in progress, but when the LAPD arrived they learned that the masked men were ICE agents. Velez says those agents had not identified themselves before making contact with Velez. Velez was put into an unmarked vehicle and taken away.

@Ziggurat asks a good question: Why have neither of us seen any news coverage of the court hearing that was scheduled for 17 July?

@Ziggurat is inclined "to believe she probably did assault the officer, and we will probably never hear anything more about the case."

I am more inclined to suspect there is no more evidence of Velez assaulting officers than there is in McIver's case. Threatened with a lawsuit for wrongful arrest, allegedly supported by video evidence, my guess is that ICE is trying to figure out how to make the assault charge go away, which may have led to postponement of the 17 July court date.
 
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