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Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

Zinke: "We have nothing against the Iranian people. We have a lot of friends that are Persian. Wonderful people. Very clever. But it's the regime .... a quote -- 'females in custody should be raped before they are executed so they don't go to heaven.' That's a direct quote ... that's the leadership of Iran."

 
Iraq is Irans largest trading partner, and its government is very friendly towards Iran. That against all the effort, lives and billions put in by the US.
This war is likely to bring Iran more friends, because all Gulf States consider it the lesser evil compared to Israel.
Won't mean any weapons or troops, but I wouldn't be surprised if Qatar or others had a little Operation Paperclip for Iranian nuclear scientists
 
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The risk of this escalating to the use of tactical nukes is enormous. All bets are off once that line is crossed, especially in the European theater.
Yankee go home no come back. You no wanted here. Keep bombs, use on self.
 
Todays targets in Iran included a water treatment plant, the Red Crescent building and a University.
 
I think there's probably only one country in the world that has tactical nukes that are worth a damn, and delivery systems that are worth a damn.

And I think there's really only one country in the world that's currently presenting the ideal targets for such weapons. Ideal in the sense of the amount of energy needed to destroy them, militarily valuable enough to be worth destroying with such amounts of energy, and located in places where collateral damage will be minimal.

A surprise small mushroom cloud over Fordow tomorrow night wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would probably be the end of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But it's still pretty extreme, even if it's not as extreme as Hlafordlaes imagines.
 
Todays targets in Iran included a water treatment plant, the Red Crescent building and a University.
I tried finding a source for this. So far the only links I've turned up were to the World Socialist Web Site. I don't trust them, and they don't list their source for that claim. They attribute a bunch of stuff in that story to the Washington Post, but the WP source for at least one of their quotes doesn't say anything about water treatment plants. My search did turn up a number of reports of Iranian cyberattacks on both Israeli and American water treatment plants, though.
 
I think there's probably only one country in the world that has tactical nukes that are worth a damn, and delivery systems that are worth a damn.

And I think there's really only one country in the world that's currently presenting the ideal targets for such weapons. Ideal in the sense of the amount of energy needed to destroy them, militarily valuable enough to be worth destroying with such amounts of energy, and located in places where collateral damage will be minimal.

A surprise small mushroom cloud over Fordow tomorrow night wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would probably be the end of Iran's nuclear ambitions.

But it's still pretty extreme, even if it's not as extreme as Hlafordlaes imagines.
From what I can tell, the US arsenal has only two nukes in active inventory that can fit in the category of "bunker buster". The B-83 is a hydrogen bomb with a yield of up to a megaton. That's a strategic nuke, not a tactical nuke, and it's not designed for earth penetration, only ground detonation. So let's disregard the B-83. There is an earth penetrating version of the B-61 (the Mod 11(), but with > 300 kt yield, that's also sort of in the strategic category. Lower yield versions of the B-61 can be surface detonating, but not penetrating. The B-61 might work, but first use of a nuke in war is a really big step, and there are a lot of reasons we wouldn't want to do that.

If the US is going to drop anything on Fordow, I think it's much more likely to be a MOP than a nuke. Not only might it work about as well (much lower explosive yield but also much more earth penetration prior to explosion), but it's MUCH lower risk if something goes wrong and also much less likely to upset third parties and even US voters.
 
And now with Pakistan supposedly coming to Iran's aid if it comes down to nukes, it is mutual assured destruction--only in the Middle East. What could possibly go wrong? :oops:
 
And now with Pakistan supposedly coming to Iran's aid if it comes down to nukes
That's a claim being made by Iran, not by Pakistan. But the first rule of Nuclear Deterrence Club is ALWAYS talk about Nuclear Deterence Club. The entire point of a nuclear deterrent is so you don't have to use it. And in order for it to work, people have to know about it. If Pakistan actually wants to dissuade Israel from nuking Iran by threatening their own nuclear retaliation, then the very first thing they're going to do is announce that they will nuke Israel if Israel nukes Iran. The threat has to be credible, and it's not credible if it's being announced by someone else. So I really don't believe the threat, because it's not being delivered the way I think it would be if it were real.

Nevertheless, even absent any such threat, I do not expect Israel to nuke Iran. Even absent nuclear or even military retaliation from any other parties, that would likely still create a lot of blowback that Israel doesn't want. And using a nuke is unlikely to do much to achieve their strategic objectives anyways.
 
A surprise small mushroom cloud over Fordow tomorrow night wouldn't be the end of the world, but it would probably be the end of Iran's nuclear ambitions.
It would be the end of the taboo against using nuclear weapons. We have the MOP precisely so as to have a conventional alternative to the tactical nuke. Fordo is exactly the type of target that the weapon was designed for. It is time to deploy it.
 

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