Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

[Ziggurat]

If Israel wants a normal, peaceful relation with its neighbours that is based not solely on the threat of US intervention, it has to start making friends, not more enemies.

That's a platitude, not a plan.

In Gaza, it is currently raising an entire generation of children who have lost absolutely everything without any fault of their own - if Israel doesn't want them all as enemies, it better get a Marshall Plan going.

Yeah, that's naive. We tried it in Iraq, we tried it in Afghanistan, and it didn't work. Won't work in Gaza either. Because none of those places has functioning civic institutions. Building infrastructure for existing institutions to use (as in the Marshall plan) is a vastly different prospect from trying to build the infrastructure and institutions together.

What you don't seem to grasp is that the problem isn't that Israel has been too mean to the Palestinians. Which is why just being nice cannot solve it. The problem is Islam. Islam is inherently hostile to other religions. It sometimes tolerates their presence as second-tier citizens, but that's it. Hatred of Israel is primarily based on religion, not injustice.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

No, but one side is coming off a hell of a lot worse and that's why its Iran that needs to offer Israel all the carrots

why?
What more can Israel do that it hasn't already done?
Iran has been under sanctions since forever. It's a giant country, most of which is out of reach of Israel even with US support.
It can literally swallow all but Israel's nukes and survive.

 

[lobosrul5]

So I've been thinking a bit about the bunker busting capabilities of the Israeli air force. I don't know exactly what they have in inventory, but they certainly could have GBU-72 bombs, which are 5,000 lb bunker busters and can be carried by F-15's, of which Israel has quite a few. The GBU-72 isn't our biggest bunker buster, though. That honor goes to the Massive Ordinance Penetrator (MOP), aka GBU-57. That sucker weighs 30,000 lbs and is way too big to be carried by an F-15. Officially, it can be carried by the B-2 and is planned for use with the B-21. Israel does not have the B-2 and probably won't ever get the B-21.

Does that mean that they can't use the MOP? Not necessarily. The MOP is well within the weight limit of the C-130 cargo plane. The C-130 isn't specifically designed as a bomber, but it is designed to allow cargo to be pushed out the back during flight. And it has been used to drop the GBU-43 MOAB in this manner. The MOAB isn't a bunker buster, but it is a really big bomb, about 22,000 lbs. The MOP is heavier, but it's also shorter (~20 ft vs ~30 ft), so fitting one inside a C-130 should be possible. Technically speaking, there's really no reason a C-130 couldn't drop a MOP. And Israel has C-130's.

So, why isn't this a standard option already? Well, in most cases where you would want to hit a target that needs a MOP, the target probably has air defenses as well. And the C-130 is NOT a very survivable aircraft in contested airspace (unlike the B-2 and B-21). But right now, Iran is not contested air space. Right now, Iran's air defenses have been disabled. Now, you can't just throw something like a MOP in the back of a C-130 and expect it to work same day. You would need to design a sled for launching, integrate control software into your aircraft, etc. in order to make it happen. Which isn't terribly complex, but also not a one-day project. But it's not inconceivable that this work has already been done. It's not outside the realm of possibility that Israel has the option to drop MOPs on Iran. But do they have that option? I do not know. And if they did, they wouldn't say.

My best guess, is that is the tertiary backup plan. Sending a C-130 over contested air space is risky, they had better be really REALLY sure theres nothing left that can intercept it. Right now Israel wants one of two things: Iran's regime to come to the table, and allow their nuclear program to be dismantled. No more fooling around with OK they can have some enriched uranium for their "civilian nuclear program", while playing hide and go seek with the IAEA. OR eventually Iran attacks a US asset and Trump bombs Fordow with a B-2.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

More desirable than the alternative.

Also, the cold war offers a salutary perspective. The west kept pushing on the USSR, with no end in sight. This was incredibly valuable, since it stymied the Soviet Union's ambitions for European hegemony and global empire. This was too little, too late, for the European states Moscow already occupied at the end of WW2, but it was an immense boon for every other country in the region.

And in the end, the pushing on the Soviet Union did not go on forever. Ultimately, the pushing had the effect of collapsing that awful regime. And while the result has not been an unmitigated success, imperialist Russia today is a mere shadow of its former self. A shadow that probably could not develop nuclear weapons, if it didn't have them already.

I would welcome a similar fate for Iran: Keep pushing until they collapse so far that they can't develop nuclear weapons. Even if that results in more open attempts at expanding their borders, à la Moscow vs Ukraine, I would still welcome that outcome over the status quo.

The Collapse of the Soviet Union was as peaceful as it was because The West swooped in and made trade deals, invested, opened itself up to Russia and its satelites.
Will Israel normalize relations with Iran if the regime collapses?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

That's a platitude, not a plan.

Yeah, that's naive. We tried it in Iraq, we tried it in Afghanistan, and it didn't work. Won't work in Gaza either. Because none of those places has functioning civic institutions. Building infrastructure for existing institutions to use (as in the Marshall plan) is a vastly different prospect from trying to build the infrastructure and institutions together.

What you don't seem to grasp is that the problem isn't that Israel has been too mean to the Palestinians. Which is why just being nice cannot solve it. The problem is Islam. Islam is inherently hostile to other religions. It sometimes tolerates their presence as second-tier citizens, but that's it. Hatred of Israel is primarily based on religion, not injustice.

is it your honest opinion that Gazans who are starving, have lost limbs, loved ones and everything they ever had hate Israel primarily because of religion?

 

[Ziggurat]

Because no one, not Trump, not Rubio, not any Israeli have articulated any demands to Iran on what needs to happen for Israel to stop its attacks and assassinations.

That doesn't mean what you think it means. If Israel has no intention of negotiating until they have achieved certain military objectives, then even supposing they told Trump what their plans were, what's to negotiate before then?

if they wanted this to stop, they need to tell Iran what they want, or how could it do what is asked?

Why would Israel want this to stop right now? They're going to want it to stop at some point, but as long as they are making progress, why not keep going? If your negotiating position will be better in the future than it is now, why negotiate now? Why not wait until that position is better and then negotiate? That's just common sense. Is it your contention that Israel is losing ground militarily? Or even in a stalemate?

So whatever strategy Israel has, it thinks it can achieve it through military means exclusively.

Maybe, but not necessarily. But even supposing that was so, remember, what I asked you about was your claim that Israel didn't share their plans with Trump. If Israel doesn't plan to negotiate at all, then communicating their plans with Trump would rather obviously not lead to Trump helping to negotiate between Iran and Israel. So the lack of Trump articulating any negotiation demands to Iran then obviously wouldn't indicate that Israel hadn't told Trump its plans. You've basically contradicted yourself.

Now, has Israel told Trump their plans? I suspect so (though I cannot prove it), at least in general terms. Perhaps not all the specifics. We don't really need to know all the specifics ahead of time, though.

 

[Manger Douse]

why?
What more can Israel do that it hasn't already done?
Iran has been under sanctions since forever. It's a giant country, most of which is out of reach of Israel even with US support.
It can literally swallow all but Israel's nukes and survive.

You're the one that said Iran needed concessions not me. I'm sure Israel will be happy to keep doing what they're doing for the next fortnight - its not as if Iran can do anything to stop them correct?

 

[Ziggurat]

is it your honest opinion that Gazans who are starving, have lost limbs, loved ones and everything they ever had hate Israel primarily because of religion?

It's my honest opinion that terrorism in the middle east is primarily driven by religion. Islamic terrorists like Hamas aren't reticent to tell us about how their religion motivates them. Why don't you believe them?

One of the dirty little secrets (and I only call it a secret in the sense that it's widely ignored even though it's not actually secret) is that terrorist organizations aren't run by the poor, downtrodden, and oppressed. They're typically run by people who are rich, and often recruit from the well off and educated. It isn't actually grievance which motivates them. It's ideology. Take a group that's got legitimate grievances against another one (for example, the Koreans against the Japanese post-WW2) but don't feed it a poisonous ideology, and you don't get widespread terrorism.

 

[theprestige]

Because no one, not Trump, not Rubio, not any Israeli have articulated any demands to Iran on what needs to happen for Israel to stop its attacks and assassinations.
if they wanted this to stop, they need to tell Iran what they want, or how could it do what is asked?

Iran was going to negotiate a deal on Sunday, and Israel killed the negotiators instead. So whatever strategy Israel has, it thinks it can achieve it through military means exclusively.
But the only thing that can be the result is a drawn-out violent conflict.

We already know what Iran must do. No need to keep making redundant demands.

And Iran makes peace deals the way Moscow makes peace deals: Dishonest attempts to buy time to redouble their aggression. Israel quite wisely denied them any hope of buying that time. They're forcing Iran to go to war now, with the army they have, rather than the army they wish to have or plan to have at a later date.

Sometimes preemption is the better part of valor. This is one of those times. Slava Judea.

 

[Ziggurat]

Will Israel normalize relations with Iran if the regime collapses?

I don't see why not.

 

[theprestige]

The Collapse of the Soviet Union was as peaceful as it was because The West swooped in and made trade deals, invested, opened itself up to Russia and its satelites.
Will Israel normalize relations with Iran if the regime collapses?

I'm sure the rest of the western world would be more than happy to swoop in. Let's hope Israel continues to make significant progress in bringing Iran to such a lowly state.

ETA: And I'm sure Israel would be more than happy to normalize relations with a secular republican regime (or even an Islamic theocracy) that repudiated anti-Zionism, Persian hegemony, and state-sponsored terrorism as a tool of international policy.

 

[Steve]

they certainly didn't share them with Trump or anyone in the Israeli government - or you.
Do you have a clue what the longterm plan here is?

None at all. As it should be when a country is at war.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

You're the one that said Iran needed concessions not me. I'm sure Israel will be happy to keep doing what they're doing for the next fortnight - its not as if Iran can do anything to stop them correct?

again, i have NOT said that.
Please read and stop repeating a falsehood.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

Iran’s senior army commander has called for residents of Haifa and Tel Aviv to evacuate immediately, Reuters reports, citing the semi-official Iranian news agency.

To use the standard used by many posters here, this means that Iran is NOT targeting civilians.

 

[Manger Douse]

again, i have NOT said that.
Please read and stop repeating a falsehood.

You said maybe it's time for some carrots instead of just sticks if Israel wants a permanent deal and have offered no good reason why Iran should be offered carrots at all

 

[Manger Douse]

To use the standard used by many posters here, this means that Iran is NOT targeting civilians.

Since I'm unaware of Iran ever forewarning Israeli civilians of an attack I'm guessing that this is to try and cause panic since they're running out of missiles and the people to fire them

 

[The Great Zaganza]

You said maybe it's time for some carrots instead of just sticks if Israel wants a permanent deal and have offered no good reason why Iran should be offered carrots at all

I am using common sense, unlike you - just pressure has never been enough to create anything but lingering resentment and revenge - Post WW1 Germany under the Treaty of Versailles is the most notorious example.
IF Israel wants peace, bombs will not be the only thing it has to offer, it's as simple as that.
Not because Iran karmically deserves a reward for not fighting Israel, but because a peace will not hold if it comes with only drawbacks for Iran.

 

[Manger Douse]

I am using common sense, unlike you - just pressure has never been enough to create anything but lingering resentment and revenge - Post WW1 Germany under the Treaty of Versailles is the most notorious example.
IF Israel wants peace, bombs will not be the only thing it has to offer, it's as simple as that.
Not because Iran karmically deserves a reward for not fighting Israel, but because a peace will not hold if it comes with only drawbacks for Iran.

If Iran wants peace what are they going to offer since they're the one who's losing really badly right now?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

If Iran wants peace what are they going to offer since they're the one who's losing really badly right now?

has it worked for Hamas?
Israel hasn't learned the lesson - will you?

 

[theprestige]

To use the standard used by many posters here, this means that Iran is NOT targeting civilians.

Telling people they should flee because you're launching mass missile raids against their homes is different from telling people they should get out of the danger zone because you're making targeted attacks on key military and government facilities in their city, but nothing is perfect and a certain amount of collateral damage should be expected.

Telling government employees they need to stop working at state telecommunications facilities, and that those facilities are targeted for destruction whether they're working there or not, is not targeting civilians in the same way as telling civilians you're going to bomb their homes with them inside if they don't run away.