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Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

Explorer said:
Nope, not convinced. I am happy to believe from my reliable on the ground source that at least 90% of Gazians have no home to return to when the Israelis stop bombing the rubble.
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What reliable on the ground source? You haven't presented any such source.
 
Ziggurat said:
Don't need it to. If it results in a country that doesn't pursue nuclear weapons and the destruction of Israel, that will be a major victory.
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that will only be the case if Iran has an incentive not to develop nukes.
Everything Israel and the US have done is hammer home the need for Nukes for Iran's survival.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
that will only be the case if Iran has an incentive not to develop nukes.
Everything Israel and the US have done is hammer home the need for Nukes for Iran's survival.
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If trying to get nukes is the thing that gets them pummeled, that's an incentive not to do it. If the personnel doing the nuclear weapons program are getting killed, that's an incentive not to do it.

And it's delusional to think Iran had no incentive absent Israeli or American hostility.
 
Ziggurat said:
Not at all a given. Any disruption of Iranian oil output hurts them, as they are the primary buyer of Iranian oil.
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How significant do you think that will be, and for how long?
Will it be more or less than what it costs Israel to bomb a Iran and intercept its missiles (or not). ?
 
Ziggurat said:
If trying to get nukes is the thing that gets them pummeled, that's an incentive not to do it. If the personnel doing the nuclear weapons program are getting killed, that's an incentive not to do it.

And it's delusional to think Iran had no incentive absent Israeli or American hostility.
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In the last 40 years, Israel has constantly claimed that Iran was about to get nukes, when at no time the regime had made the decision to actual build one. There is no indication that the current nuclear program has been seriously impaired by the bombing except for the killing of scientists. Iran had a bigger setback after Stuxnet.
Unless the US uses its super heavy bombers to deliver more powerful bombs, Iranians will be able to continue where they left off.
But this time without letting the IAEA inspect it.
 
Trump told everyone to evacuate Teheran because Israel did already. And he is giving support to Israel’s bombing because he couldn’t stop them anyway.

Trump is like Bart Simpson in the dog obedience school episode where he pretends to have trained his dog by ordering the dog to do what it already is doing…
 

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Hercules56 said:

Netanyahu believes that if they kill the leader of Iran the war will end if he actually believes this he is truly insane.
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he doesn't believe that, but he knows Trump does, because Trump thinks every group is personified in its leader and acts like an extension of them.
Bibi just wants to drag the US into a permanent war in the region.
No one would be more disappointed than him if the Regime would surrender, forswear the development of nukes and recognize Israel.
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
In the last 40 years, Israel has constantly claimed that Iran was about to get nukes,
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I think your timeline is a bit messed up.
There is no indication that the current nuclear program has been seriously impaired by the bombing except for the killing of scientists.
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It’s a bit premature to reach that conclusion, and I’m hearing otherwise. If your objection to this campaign is that it’s not sufficiently effective, well, there’s a solution to that.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
How significant do you think that will be, and for how long?
Will it be more or less than what it costs Israel to bomb a Iran and intercept its missiles (or not). ?
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I don’t think that’s a relevant question to either Israel or China.
 
Ziggurat said:
I think your timeline is a bit messed up.

It’s a bit premature to reach that conclusion, and I’m hearing otherwise. If your objection to this campaign is that it’s not sufficiently effective, well, there’s a solution to that.
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What's the solution?
Bombing Iran every 6 months until the end of time?

The attack by Israel is clearly not about nukes, as every analyst said that Iran is nowhere near building one.
Which explains why Israel isn't actually going after nuclear sites, but the military leadership and Iranian infrastructure.
 
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The Great Zaganza said:
The attack by Israel is clearly not about nukes, as every analyst said that Iran is nowhere near building one.
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Every analyst? I doubt that. And if every analyst agrees about anything, that should make you worry about group think, not assure you that they're all correct. Israel no doubt has their own analysts, and they probably know more about what's going on in Iran than any analyst who can talk about this stuff publicly.
The Great Zaganza said:
Which explains why Israel isn't actually going after nuclear sites, but the military leadership and Iranian infrastructure.
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What are you talking about? Israel HAS gone after nuclear sites. The threat to Israel from Iran isn't only nuclear weapons, so I see no reason to expect Israel to confine themselves to only going after nuclear sites. But they absolutely have gone after such sites, and if you didn't know that, then you're getting some really bad information. Their targeting of nuclear sites like Natanz isn't exactly secret, it's been widely reported on mainstream news sites like CNN.

ETA: for enrichment centrifuges, you don't necessarily need to destroy the centrifuges themselves. If you knock out power (which Israel did at Natanz) while the centrifuges are running, that can actually ruin them permanently.
 
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None of the sites hit by Israel have resulted in any elevated levels of radioactivity, meaning that there is no damage to containment and the fissable material is intact.
If Israel had wanted to cripple the project it would have coordinated with the US for the appropriate ordinance and delivery system.

As matters stand this is not a critical setback as far as we can tell as of now. Especially not if Russia and China chose to increase their assistance.

And its US intelligence analysis that says that it was at least 9 months before Iran could have had enough enriched material for one testing device, meaning it was still years from an actual warhead that could be delivered.

Again, what do you think is the permanent solution to prevent a nuclear armed Iran?
 
The Great Zaganza said:
None of the sites hit by Israel have resulted in any elevated levels of radioactivity, meaning that there is no damage to containment and the fissable material is intact.
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Not sure why you think this means there wasn't significant damage to their program.
The Great Zaganza said:
And its US intelligence analysis that says that it was at least 9 months before Iran could have had enough enriched material for one testing device
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Which means that further enrichment was needed, so there's no requirement to hit the partially enriched stockpiles. In addition, it also means that destroying enrichment capacity halts their progress towards the goal of having enough material for a bomb. If they can't build a bomb without further enrichment and they can't further enrich their uranium, then they can't build a bomb.

And waiting until the last minute to disrupt a nuclear program is a bad idea.
The Great Zaganza said:
Again, what do you think is the permanent solution to prevent a nuclear armed Iran?
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A permanent solution would be regime change. But a temporary solution is better than no solution.
 
and if there is no regime change (or the new regime continues the program) - does Israel have to repeat this kind of attack every few months?
forever?
 
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