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Ed Israel/US Attacks Iran /Yet Another Country/Iran

“Israel and Iran on Friday both played down an apparent Israeli airstrike near a major air base and nuclear site in central Iran, signaling the two bitter enemies are ready to prevent their latest eruption of violence from escalating into a full-blown regional war.”

However both sides say things might still kick off.

““It appears we’re closer than ever to a broad regional war, despite the fact that the international community will most likely make a great effort to de-escalate tensions,” wrote Amos Harel, the military-affairs commentator for the Israeli daily Haaretz.”

““Neither side is ready to jump over the brink,” said Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute. But he added a major caveat.

““Probably we’re going to go back to the proxy war, “ he said, but now it’s a proxy war with the risk of “that sudden eruption of state-to-state war. Which we didn’t have to worry about before.””

https://apnews.com/article/a7ccbae2e2844bab089e8e4377a24ddb
 
dudalb said:
Ir Iran really want to draw the US in, obvious way is a direct attack on The United States by a Iranian sponsored Terroist group. Question is is Iran willing to go that far? DO they really want the kind of military response that would bring?
Seems to be provoking the US in such a manner is a really bad idea, but then we are dealing with a bunch of religious fanatics.never forget that..and who knows what thel lthey think Allah will tel them to do?
Any number of things could happen. It could taper off or it could escalate.The ball is in Iran's court now.
I think Iran's gaol is total domination of the Mideast, a Islamaic version of the Persian empire.
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A Shi'ite version?
 
An interesting article on the Arab News this morning.
The Saudi press is very much under the control of the Sauds- indeed, this paper is owned by one of them. What is printed is essentially the voice of the Saudi government, but with a veneer of plausible deniability. They are saying what they really think, in an "officially non-official" way.
Anyhow, this is what they have to say about the recent tit-for-tat exchange between Israel and Iran.
But what no one imagined is that missile and drone strikes, such as the ones exchanged by Iran and Israel this month, could be prearranged and approved by supposed arch-enemies.

Finely calibrated warfare is what Iran and Israel seem to be embarking on.
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They go on:
many in the Middle East have long looked suspiciously at the Israel-Iran relationship, describing it as always on the brink but never escalated to the point where it might harm the strategic interests of the Islamic Republic or its survival, or those in Israel that seek to maintain the country’s supremacy at all costs.
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The region and the wider world might be breathing more comfortably after further escalations were avoided due to successful backchannels preapproving the attacks and responses, but one immediate implication of the exchange was the removal, at least temporarily, of the criticism faced by Israel related to its conduct in Gaza. Once again, Netanyahu’s government, with or without the approval of its Western allies, looks free to see through its job of destroying Hamas, even if it means the loss of further innocent Palestinian lives and even more of Gaza being turned to rubble. Peace or even a ceasefire remain elusive despite all the mediators’ efforts.
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Across the Arab pro-Palestinian Middle East, one cannot but sense admiration for Iran, even though its missiles and drones failed to reach their targets. This is also despite the fact that, short of this calibrated attack launched directly against Israel, many believe Tehran’s leadership would prefer to leave Hamas to go on fighting until the last civilian in Gaza. Others are not impressed by the apparently rehearsed and choreographed spectacle of Iran and Israel trading blows.
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What they seem to be saying, then, is that these attacks were pre-planned, between Israel and Iran, with the aim of bolstering both their governments.
The Arabs love their conspiracy theories (anyone remember the Israeli spy vulture :D ), of course, but this is still an interesting take on this incident.
Full article here:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2498626
 
Cosmic Yak said:
An interesting article on the Arab News this morning.
The Saudi press is very much under the control of the Sauds- indeed, this paper is owned by one of them. What is printed is essentially the voice of the Saudi government, but with a veneer of plausible deniability. They are saying what they really think, in an "officially non-official" way.
Anyhow, this is what they have to say about the recent tit-for-tat exchange between Israel and Iran.

They go on:





What they seem to be saying, then, is that these attacks were pre-planned, between Israel and Iran, with the aim of bolstering both their governments.
The Arabs love their conspiracy theories (anyone remember the Israeli spy vulture :D ), of course, but this is still an interesting take on this incident.
Full article here:
https://www.arabnews.com/node/2498626
Click to expand...

Interesting indeed, though does that presuppose the killing of the Irainian commanders in Syria was preplanned by both governments? That was what started the tit for tat exchanges, however preagreed/prewarned they may have been.

Bolstering the Iranian governement seems the best explanation for their agreement, but I would think the Israelis have enough on their plate at the moment without playing games with Iran, on the basis that a failure of communications might well lead to an escalation they really don't need at the moment.
 
Lplus said:
Interesting indeed, though does that presuppose the killing of the Irainian commanders in Syria was preplanned by both governments? That was what started the tit for tat exchanges, however preagreed/prewarned they may have been.

Bolstering the Iranian governement seems the best explanation for their agreement, but I would think the Israelis have enough on their plate at the moment without playing games with Iran, on the basis that a failure of communications might well lead to an escalation they really don't need at the moment.
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Yes, as I say, it's a bit far-fetched. I really posted this to give an insight into what the Saudis are thinking.
 
Cosmic Yak said:
Yes, as I say, it's a bit far-fetched. I really posted this to give an insight into what the Saudis are thinking.
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Somethiing that struck me was the lukewarm condemnation of Israel's action in Gaza, something I might expect in private, but not in print.
 
Lplus said:
Somethiing that struck me was the lukewarm condemnation of Israel's action in Gaza, something I might expect in private, but not in print.
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Even more the implicit condemnation of Hamas as '.....Hamas to go on fighting until the last civilian in Gaza.'. That is rather important a message to be send.

What I think is that the Arab nations are getting really nervous concerning this.
Even though they may hate Iran with every inch of their body, at least Iran is trying to get nuclear weapons to counter those of Israel.
If the Arab nations now get a feeling that Israel and Iran are working together, they may feel becoming very surrounded by 2 hostile nuclear armed nations.
 
erwinl said:
Even more the implicit condemnation of Hamas as '.....Hamas to go on fighting until the last civilian in Gaza.'. That is rather important a message to be send.

What I think is that the Arab nations are getting really nervous concerning this.
Even though they may hate Iran with every inch of their body, at least Iran is trying to get nuclear weapons to counter those of Israel.
If the Arab nations now get a feeling that Israel and Iran are working together, they may feel becoming very surrounded by 2 hostile nuclear armed nations.
Click to expand...

Yeah, it's a complicated situation.
My own take on it is this: If the Saudis want to be top dogs in the Middle East, they have two main rivals- Israel and Iran. Previously, the obvious choice would have been to side with Iran against Israel. The Sunni/Shia divide would be less of a problem than the Muslim/Jew divide. However, that seems to be changing now. Iran's recent stealthy-but-aggressive expansion of influence has got the Saudis worried. The fighting in Yemen is essentially a proxy war between the two powers. As you say, erwinl, they are facing a situation where they could be sandwiched between two nuclear-armed nations, which is not what they want at all. I think the Saudis concluded some time ago that Israel was a better partner than Iran. The rapprochement between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain especially- this latter being a client state of Saudi Arabia- could not have happened without Saudi blessing. They were on the verge of normalising relations themselves- until Octover 7 happened.
This leads to the other deciding factor- the Palestinians. I believe that the Saudis are, frankly, more than a little tired of Palestinian obstructionism. They sometimes refer to them as 'those people'. The Saudis want this sorted, because they don't need the endless instability, and the opportunity this gives Iran to extend its influence, and they are weary of propping up the corrupt PA. (They have no time for Hamas at all, BTW.) If the Saudis can pull off a deal with Israel that includes a definitive settlement of the Palestinian question (which would mean a Palestinian state), they they kill two birds with one stone- defusing the rivalry with Israel and gaining a powerful ally, whilst at the same time stymieing Iran's regional ambitions.
I think they've concluded that the mullahs in Tehran are too unreliable, too volatile and too sneaky to be considered allies.
As a final consideration, a deal with Israel would keep the US on board as an ally: a deal with Iran would leave them isolated.
Just to be clear: this is just my own conclusion. Yes, it is based on several years' living in the Gulf, but it is nonetheless just my personal take.
 
Cosmic Yak said:
Yeah, it's a complicated situation.
My own take on it is this: If the Saudis want to be top dogs in the Middle East, they have two main rivals- Israel and Iran. Previously, the obvious choice would have been to side with Iran against Israel. The Sunni/Shia divide would be less of a problem than the Muslim/Jew divide. However, that seems to be changing now. Iran's recent stealthy-but-aggressive expansion of influence has got the Saudis worried. The fighting in Yemen is essentially a proxy war between the two powers. As you say, erwinl, they are facing a situation where they could be sandwiched between two nuclear-armed nations, which is not what they want at all. I think the Saudis concluded some time ago that Israel was a better partner than Iran. The rapprochement between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain especially- this latter being a client state of Saudi Arabia- could not have happened without Saudi blessing. They were on the verge of normalising relations themselves- until Octover 7 happened.
This leads to the other deciding factor- the Palestinians. I believe that the Saudis are, frankly, more than a little tired of Palestinian obstructionism. They sometimes refer to them as 'those people'. The Saudis want this sorted, because they don't need the endless instability, and the opportunity this gives Iran to extend its influence, and they are weary of propping up the corrupt PA. (They have no time for Hamas at all, BTW.) If the Saudis can pull off a deal with Israel that includes a definitive settlement of the Palestinian question (which would mean a Palestinian state), they they kill two birds with one stone- defusing the rivalry with Israel and gaining a powerful ally, whilst at the same time stymieing Iran's regional ambitions.
I think they've concluded that the mullahs in Tehran are too unreliable, too volatile and too sneaky to be considered allies.
As a final consideration, a deal with Israel would keep the US on board as an ally: a deal with Iran would leave them isolated.
Just to be clear: this is just my own conclusion. Yes, it is based on several years' living in the Gulf, but it is nonetheless just my personal take.
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A few comments, if I may-

I really can't see Israel as a significant rival to Saudi, even with Nukes. Their intention is to survive between the river and the sea without constantly being attacked, not to make waves in the Gulf. Iran on the other hand, not only wants to be king of the gulf, but is a religious rival of Saudi.

I suspect most of the Middle East apart from Iran is tired of the palestinians' strident demands to eliminate Israel.

I doubt the US never had any interest in a palestinian state, but the continued obstinacy of the palestinians in their demands to remove Israel has turned the US away from the palestinians until such time as the palestinians finally accept the realities of the existence of Israel.
 
Lplus said:
A few comments, if I may-

I really can't see Israel as a significant rival to Saudi, even with Nukes. Their intention is to survive between the river and the sea without constantly being attacked, not to make waves in the Gulf. Iran on the other hand, not only wants to be king of the gulf, but is a religious rival of Saudi.
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Yes, fair point. 'Rival' was a poor choice of word on my part. 'Enemy' would have been better. Saudi Arabia doesn't want to be stuck with enemies in front and behind. Making peace with one, especially one that can be used in the struggle with the other, makes sense.

Lplus said:
I suspect most of the Middle East apart from Iran is tired of the palestinians' strident demands to eliminate Israel.
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Palestinians danced in the streets when Saddam invaded Kuwait. The Kuwaitis have neither forgotten nor forgiven this.
I think, though, that it's important to qualify 'most of the Middle East'. Public opinion in this region is firmly anti-Israel. The governments, however, are taking more of a realpolitik approach. It is to be hoped that this will lead the Arabs as a people to become more amicable towards their Jewish neighbours. This is going to take a long, long time, though.

Lplus said:
I doubt the US never had any interest in a palestinian state, but the continued obstinacy of the palestinians in their demands to remove Israel has turned the US away from the palestinians until such time as the palestinians finally accept the realities of the existence of Israel.
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Yes, I'm not saying that it's true: I'm saying this is how it comes across in the Middle East- and it is something the US really needs to address. America's historical blanket support for Israel has turned many people here away from the US. The small and recent shifts by Biden have done little to change that. If America wants to have any sway or influence in the Muslim world, it needs to tackle the perception of its actions and attitudes among Muslim people. The US is seen as arrogant, ignorant and under the thumb of Israel- and that view helps no-one. (The first two of those, by the way, I actually have some sympathy for.)
 
We seem to have dodged the bullet fo rnow, but sooner or later Iran will misculate overplay it's hand.
The Hamas will fight to the last Gazan statement sume it up beautifully. Something a lot of the Pro Palestinain portestors just do not want to accept.
 
dudalb said:
We seem to have dodged the bullet fo rnow, but sooner or later Iran will misculate overplay it's hand.
The Hamas will fight to the last Gazan statement sume it up beautifully. Something a lot of the Pro Palestinain portestors just do not want to accept.
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Substitute Iran for HAMAS and it comes even closer to the truth.
 
angrysoba said:
Yet another war in the Middle East.

Benjamin Netanyahu is an absolute maniac. Not content with reducing Gaza to rubble and raiding other neighbours, why not have a new war?

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There are turnips that fell off the turnip truck yesterday, that already know that Iran has been at war with Israel for decades. There are people who were born last night, who already know this.

New war my ass. It's not even a new front in the current war.
 
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Netanjahu is making Israel walk on the train tracks to force Big Daddy USA to help it, as always. An actual war with Iran is one that could be the end of Israel. Luckily for it, Iran has never seriously tried.

This is probably about the claim by Iran that it has acquired Intel on Israel's nuclear program and kompromat on Netanjahu and others.

Once again, all Israeli will have to pay to keep Netanjahu in power.

Insanity.

Hope we see more IDF officers refusing to fight and say why.
 
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People take this "enemy of my enemy" crap way too literally. Just because you feel sympathy for Gaza doesn't mean you have to welcome a nuclear weaponed Iran, just to spite Israel.
 
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