How do we know a pandemic's over?
- Thread starter Chanakya
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marting
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Yeah, no doubt about that. Early on Covid Vaxes had a pretty good uptake while Flu vax update has remained fairly steady. Covid Vax rates are pitiful so pretty much depends on long term, memory cell protection which, lucky for us, is reasonably good. That and fairly high population immunity from both vax and survivor immunity (the phrase natural immunity seems to imply "good" for some) has taken a big bite out of the Covid threat. This new variant could make for another large wave this summer like last year's. Probably not going to have much effect on San Diego's 2024/25 fiscal year reporting as it closes out at the end of June.
I think it has already closed:
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Australia:
Denis - The COVID info guy on X, May 30, 2025
COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian residential aged care facilities: 29 May 2025
Active cases: 1,218 (+54.5%
Active outbreaks: 173 (+47.8%)
Residents: 903 (+55.6%)
Staff: 315 (+51.4%)
Reported deaths in 2025: 157* (+6)
@Mark_Butler_MP
https://health.gov.au/resources/publications/covid-19-outbreaks-in-australian-residential-aged-care-homes-30-may-2025?language=en
I hope they're right:
JWeiland on X, May 30, 2025
From viral evolution alone, I think you're correct here Ryan! One other factor for consideration is the build up of susceptables during the last 8 months of low/very low in a lot of states (nothing at all from XEC or LP)- a possible mini powder keg looking for a match.
marting
Illuminator
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It hasn't closed. The reports are monthly instead of weekly until Oct. Been that way for several months. Should get the next report this coming week.
This one is sooo 2020 if it weren't for the cough that dare not speak its name:
Some countries still seem to be concerned about the health of their populations:
And that is despite the economy of Turks and Caicos being very dependent on the tourist industry.
HHS.gov on X, May 30, 2025
@NYTimes, @WashingtonPost, @Politico got it wrong again. The COVID-19 vaccine schedule is very clear. The vaccine is not recommended for pregnant women. The vaccine is not recommended for healthy children. Any decision by a parent to vaccinate their child outside the CDC recommended schedule should be made in consultation with their healthcare provider.
Chanakya
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Okay, this is anecdotal, and what's more an anecdotal reference to one man's opinion, but still:
I happened to be talking to a friend --- well, more acquaintance than friend, but whatever --- who's a doctor, and who seemed very knowledgeable about this recent escalation in infection numbers. And he tells me that these are a bunch of variations of the Omicron strain, which, like their parent the Omicron, are highly infective, hence the uptick in infection numbers; but, again like their forebear the Omicron, not very ...harmful, compared to other strains, that is to say not lethal generally. So that this uptick isn't really a matter for worry, in and of itself.
However, people in those geographies that do see an uptick, would be well advised to mask, and when ill to isolate etc, not so much for their own safety, but to generally keep down infection rates --- because the more the proliferation, the greater the chances of new mutations; and the greater the number of mutations, the higher the possibility that one or more of these might end up being harmful, lethal, in new ways.
So yeah, that was his (apparently well-informed) take on this. That despite the uptick there's no reason to panic; but in general terms it makes sense to do what we can to keep numbers down.
While I'm not independently sure if he's right, but he did seem to make sense. (Well, provided he's right about his facts, and not just gassing away. It is partly to share this here generally, and partly to lean on the knowledge and expertise of people here, to make sure he's indeed making sense, that I'm mentioning this now.)
I happened to be talking to a friend --- well, more acquaintance than friend, but whatever --- who's a doctor, and who seemed very knowledgeable about this recent escalation in infection numbers. And he tells me that these are a bunch of variations of the Omicron strain, which, like their parent the Omicron, are highly infective, hence the uptick in infection numbers; but, again like their forebear the Omicron, not very ...harmful, compared to other strains, that is to say not lethal generally. So that this uptick isn't really a matter for worry, in and of itself.
However, people in those geographies that do see an uptick, would be well advised to mask, and when ill to isolate etc, not so much for their own safety, but to generally keep down infection rates --- because the more the proliferation, the greater the chances of new mutations; and the greater the number of mutations, the higher the possibility that one or more of these might end up being harmful, lethal, in new ways.
So yeah, that was his (apparently well-informed) take on this. That despite the uptick there's no reason to panic; but in general terms it makes sense to do what we can to keep numbers down.
While I'm not independently sure if he's right, but he did seem to make sense. (Well, provided he's right about his facts, and not just gassing away. It is partly to share this here generally, and partly to lean on the knowledge and expertise of people here, to make sure he's indeed making sense, that I'm mentioning this now.)
I have a problem with this:
"but, again like their forebear the Omicron, not very ...harmful, compared to other strains, that is to say not lethal generally."
COVID-19 was never "lethal generally." The vast majority of people who got infected survived. And the vast majority of survivors seemed to get over it without much harm done. That was the case even before the vaccinations.
However, "not very ...harmful, compared to other strains," was never true. IIRC, Omicron virulence was estimated to be about 80% of the previous strains, which I wouldn't call not very harmful in comparison. And that the point was when everybody started calling it mild. Vaccinations had started during Delta and before Omicron, which made it a bit harder to estimate the difference in virus virulence. So did the level of immunity that some some people had from previous C19 infections.
However, since Omicron (like Delta before it, but more so) was more contagious, which - in combination with the post-vaccination let-it-rip policy - meant that in some places, e.g. Denmark, Omicron managed to kill more people than previous variants - in spite of allegedly being mild and in spite of vaccinations and in spite of 'hybrid immunity'.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Our World in Data)
(For comparison, I would have added Cuba where the big killer variant was Delta, which arrived pre-vax in the summer of 2021 in that country, but Our World in Data gives Denmark and Cuba the same color, which is confusing.)
Notice the big spike in the winter of 2021-22. That's Omicron. Post-vax! At that point, the majority of Danes had had three shots. Two in the spring/summer of 2021 and one in October-November.
Notice also the summers 2020, 2021 and 2022. The summers were restriction-free in Denmark. And yet the summer of 2022 was far worse than the two previous summers even though it was all supposed to be over.
In the 2024-25 flu season, which was a pretty rough season for flu, C19 still killed more people than the flu. And the sequelae from C19 are far worse.
I don't think your doctor acquaintance is "just gassing away," but don't expect MDs to always be well-informed about this stuff. In the summer of 2022 when I pointed out to doctors and nurses how bad the situation was in comparison to the two previous years, they rarely believed me and sometimes asked me to prove it. They were much like everybody else in this respect. They believed what they had been told by the media: Covid was now mild and nothing to be concerned about. And we now had super (= hybrid) immunity. Even when I showed them the numbers and the graphs, many of them tended to think that Our World in Data must have got it wrong.
That is, unless they happened to work at a ward full of C19 patients.
"but, again like their forebear the Omicron, not very ...harmful, compared to other strains, that is to say not lethal generally."
COVID-19 was never "lethal generally." The vast majority of people who got infected survived. And the vast majority of survivors seemed to get over it without much harm done. That was the case even before the vaccinations.
However, "not very ...harmful, compared to other strains," was never true. IIRC, Omicron virulence was estimated to be about 80% of the previous strains, which I wouldn't call not very harmful in comparison. And that the point was when everybody started calling it mild. Vaccinations had started during Delta and before Omicron, which made it a bit harder to estimate the difference in virus virulence. So did the level of immunity that some some people had from previous C19 infections.
However, since Omicron (like Delta before it, but more so) was more contagious, which - in combination with the post-vaccination let-it-rip policy - meant that in some places, e.g. Denmark, Omicron managed to kill more people than previous variants - in spite of allegedly being mild and in spite of vaccinations and in spite of 'hybrid immunity'.
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Our World in Data)
(For comparison, I would have added Cuba where the big killer variant was Delta, which arrived pre-vax in the summer of 2021 in that country, but Our World in Data gives Denmark and Cuba the same color, which is confusing.)
Notice the big spike in the winter of 2021-22. That's Omicron. Post-vax! At that point, the majority of Danes had had three shots. Two in the spring/summer of 2021 and one in October-November.
Notice also the summers 2020, 2021 and 2022. The summers were restriction-free in Denmark. And yet the summer of 2022 was far worse than the two previous summers even though it was all supposed to be over.
In the 2024-25 flu season, which was a pretty rough season for flu, C19 still killed more people than the flu. And the sequelae from C19 are far worse.
I don't think your doctor acquaintance is "just gassing away," but don't expect MDs to always be well-informed about this stuff. In the summer of 2022 when I pointed out to doctors and nurses how bad the situation was in comparison to the two previous years, they rarely believed me and sometimes asked me to prove it. They were much like everybody else in this respect. They believed what they had been told by the media: Covid was now mild and nothing to be concerned about. And we now had super (= hybrid) immunity. Even when I showed them the numbers and the graphs, many of them tended to think that Our World in Data must have got it wrong.
That is, unless they happened to work at a ward full of C19 patients.
India:
COVID-19 resurgence: India notices five-fold increase in cases; experts warn of high transmissibility of new variant NB.1.8.1 (India Times, May 31, 2025)
COVID-19 resurgence: India notices five-fold increase in cases; experts warn of high transmissibility of new variant NB.1.8.1 (India Times, May 31, 2025)
Roger Ramjets
Philosopher
It was the same here in New Zealand. We easily squashed the original variant, but couldn't quite manage to eradicate Delta because it was too infectious for the level of compliance achievable. Therefore we had no hope of stopping omicron. Luckily by that time enough people had been vaccinated that we could risk 'letting it rip' (not that we had much choice). Then we went from zero deaths to thousands. But our cumulative death rate is still only 1/5th that of the US, suggesting that vaccinations really do work. I hate to think what would have happened if we weren't vaccinated.
BTW after thinking yesterday that maybe it's finally over, I just checked the wastewater count today and was only mildly surprised to see a big spike, up to the same level it was in November 2022 just before the third big surge. Not over!
However I expect deaths will stay low here because 70% of reported cases are now reinfections. If they survived it once they probably will again. As to long term damage, it may be decades before we can evaluate the eventual effect on lifespans. If a person dies 10-20 years before they otherwise would it should be counted as a premature death, but probably won't be.
When I look at Our World in Data, I get the impression that New Zealand was actually pretty good at eradicating even Delta.
Here in comparison with Cuba where the same approach was attempted but didn't succeed. The country managed well until it was inundated by Delta in the summer of 2021, almost entirely unvaccinated at the time. NZ succeeded!
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (
, 
)
On the other hand, once its vaccination campaign was over by the end of 2021, Cuba tackled Omicron far better than almost all other countries. (I say almost because I don't know of any other country that did better.) In Cuba, Omicron was just a little bump in the road in Jan-Feb 2022.
New Zealand, on the other hand, was hit hard by Omicron in early 2022, post-
, when the eradication strategy was abandoned. In fact, Omicron's impact on New Zealand looks much like what we experienced in Denmark post- when all other precautions were abandoned.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (, , 
)
In August '22, NZ had come up with an alternative way of counting C19 deaths, so the graph no longer reflects how the countries were actually doing after that date. It was NZ's way of 'flattening the curve'.
You should consider this difference whenever you make comparisons with other countries after Aug '22.
Here in comparison with Cuba where the same approach was attempted but didn't succeed. The country managed well until it was inundated by Delta in the summer of 2021, almost entirely unvaccinated at the time. NZ succeeded!
Daily new confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (
, )On the other hand, once its vaccination campaign was over by the end of 2021, Cuba tackled Omicron far better than almost all other countries. (I say almost because I don't know of any other country that did better.) In Cuba, Omicron was just a little bump in the road in Jan-Feb 2022.
New Zealand, on the other hand, was hit hard by Omicron in early 2022, post-
, when the eradication strategy was abandoned. In fact, Omicron's impact on New Zealand looks much like what we experienced in Denmark post- when all other precautions were abandoned.Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (
, , )In August '22, NZ had come up with an alternative way of counting C19 deaths, so the graph no longer reflects how the countries were actually doing after that date. It was NZ's way of 'flattening the curve'.
You should consider this difference whenever you make comparisons with other countries after Aug '22.
Chanakya
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- Apr 29, 2015
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- 5,811
Right, that sanity check is what I was looking for.
Specifically this, for instance, where you say: "in some places, e.g. Denmark, Omicron managed to kill more people than previous variants - in spite of allegedly being mild and in spite of vaccinations and in spite of 'hybrid immunity'"
So yeah, then while what Dr. G so impassionedly explained to me, while maybe it's not fully wrong as far as the background facts, but it seems off as far as the conclusion he draws from it. Of course, he does suggest taking precautions, but not so much to protect ourselves in the here and now but to prevent further mutations in future. And in his complacency about the immediate risk represented by this uptick in numbers, he seems to be wrong. I'm going with that.
More NZ, but I haven't found any confirmation:
This one is two months old:
Too many catching Covid-19 in hospital, experts say - but precautions being rolled back (RNZ.nz, Mar 26, 2025)
ETA:
I guess this is a kind of confirmation:
Amanda Kvalsvig: "Epidemiologist in the Department of Public Health, University of Otago Wellington @OtagoWellington Aotearoa New Zealand, all views my own, she/her."
She retweeted Elizabeth Black's tweet:
Interview with Amanda Kvalsvig:
This one is two months old:
Too many catching Covid-19 in hospital, experts say - but precautions being rolled back (RNZ.nz, Mar 26, 2025)
ETA:
I guess this is a kind of confirmation:
Amanda Kvalsvig: "Epidemiologist in the Department of Public Health, University of Otago Wellington @OtagoWellington Aotearoa New Zealand, all views my own, she/her."
She retweeted Elizabeth Black's tweet:
It is a reference to this retweet:
Denis - the COVID info guy on X, May 29, 2025
COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian residential aged care facilities: 29 May 2025
Active cases: 1,218 (+54.5%)
Active outbreaks: 173 (+47.8%)
Residents: 903 (+55.6%)
Staff: 315 (+51.4%)
Reported deaths in 2025: 157* (+6)
COVID-19 outbreaks in Australian residential aged care homes – 30 May 2025
Interview with Amanda Kvalsvig:
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India:
Reported is important in this context. I have no idea what is considered to be a C19 death in India. 26 deaths this year is far less than in Denmark. Populations:
1.4 billion; 6 million. I also don't know when (and why) people there get tested, which is important for the interpretation of the "rise over 1,200%": Does it reflect that an increased number of people are being tested? Did the criteria for getting tested change? I have no idea.
Like everywhere else, the main message in this article is: "Nothing To Worry About"
India's Covid Cases Rise Over 1,200% In A Week. What's Driving The Surge (NDTV, June 1, 2025)
According to the data available on the official website of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, there are 3,395 active Coronavirus cases in the country as of Saturday morning, a rise of about 1,200 per cent from last week. India had 257 active cases on May 22 and 1,010 by May 26.
(,,,)
The data also showed that India has reported 26 deaths this year.
Reported is important in this context. I have no idea what is considered to be a C19 death in India. 26 deaths this year is far less than in Denmark. Populations:
1.4 billion; 6 million. I also don't know when (and why) people there get tested, which is important for the interpretation of the "rise over 1,200%": Does it reflect that an increased number of people are being tested? Did the criteria for getting tested change? I have no idea.Like everywhere else, the main message in this article is: "Nothing To Worry About"
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I linked to the TODAY Show's article in post 1,364. Mike Hoerger and others point out that the article not only mentions N95s specifically, not masking up in general, but it also doesn't recommend washing your hands, which is useless when you are dealing with an airborne virus.
Mike Hoerger on X, May 31, 2025
The TODAY Show recommends N95s, vaccines, and frequent testing to dodge the potentially forthcoming NB.1.8.1 summer wave.
The U.S. government recommends against vaccines for children and pregnant people.
The beginning of a thread:
Charlos on X, June 1, 2025
So many replies from people developing #LongCovid in the last year from repeat infections.
This will keep happening !!!
