In contrast, I have almost always agreed with everything that Bill Williams has written.I haven't always agreed with everything Numbers has written, but one cannot complain about his thoroughness.
This is EXACTLY the problem with the assumption that 'the break in was fake'. That assumption became hard-baked into Mignini's/the Police's way of thinking and their early theories -SIMPLY BECAUSE AT THAT TIME RUDY GUEDE WAS UNKNOWN TO THEM. Of the three people that they'd originally suspected/arrested, none of the three were deemed capable of breaking in through Filomena's second story bedroom window - as well as, their early theory was that Knox had let the three of them in, so no need for a break-in.
Ergo, it must have been faked, because none of the original three could manage a real one, so the cops thought.
I remember reading the papers as the days went on.... soon there was reported the possibility of a **fourth** assailant - of course, that was Guede once he'd become known, once the police had heard him say on a Skype call back to Perugia from Germany, that Amanda Knox - that she had not been involved. Repeat, Guede's earliest confession was that she'd not been involved - and he did not know that police were eavesdropping on the call.
Point being, once Guede was known to have done this, suddenly the evidence surrounding the break-in made sense. Instead of hitting reset - allowing the new available evidence to guide the investigation - the cops/Mignini simply substituted Guede for Lumumba. Yet, they stuck with the faked break-in, even though the simplest explanation was that Guede had done the deed through Filomena's window, as a subsequent TV demonstration showed.
Numbers post should be read and reread. Me, I don't really go with Steve Moore's 'police informant' theory.... as to why 'investigative amnesia' took hold. 'Investigative amnesia' was the way that the final acquitting court put it, as to why the investigation had been flawed.
For example, I agree with almost everything in the post above. But as sometimes happens when I read a post, I have a quibble.
We know (I think) that Guede was returned to Perugia following his arrest in Milan by the request of someone (of authority?) in the Perugia police department. This was because of one or more of the following reasons: 1. Guede was a police informant; 2. Guede was receiving protection from the wealthy family (the wealthiest in Perugia) or some concerned member of that family, who had supposedly ended contact with him about mid-2007 because of his behavior deemed unacceptable by (some?) members of that family; 3. Guede was recognized by the police as a local sports (youth basketball) hero; or 4. Some other reason I can't guess at.
Also, before someone states that Guede was bailed out, I will note that there is no such institution as "bail" - payment of a bond to release an alleged offender from detention as a suspect or pre-trial detention - in Italy.
So I don't know - and neither, I believe, do other posters know - whether or not Guede was unknown to the police - and specifically to the ones investigating the Kercher murder/rape. What is the evidence that supports the statement that "Guede was unknown to the police" at the relevant time, considering the apparent evidence that the Perugia police had secured his release from custody in Milan just several days before the murder/rape of Kercher?
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