Trump's Second Term

[Segnosaur]

Please forgive my ignorance on the subject of tariffs and possible results from them. I admit I don’t know as much as I should because as a young man I just didn’t care what happened politically and it has come back to bite me.
I am in no way a Don supporter and these are real questions that have occurred to me in the last month: Is it possible that these tariffs
(however remotely) will actually do what the administration says they will do?

It depends on whether you are looking short, medium or long term.

Short term (over a time frame of less than a year), no, the tariffs will not "do what the administration says it will". In fact, it will have the opposite effect... just as we seen in Trump's first term, the trade deficit INCREASED when Trump imposed Tariffs, because companies went out and bought as much stock as quickly as possible pre-tariffs just to avoid the increased costs.

Medium term (over a year or 3), no they will not "do what the administration says it will". Companies won't have enough time to build manufacturing capacity in that time to produce "american" stuff. Meanwhile, foreign countries will implement their own tariffs in response, killing American exports. So Americans pay more for their imported goods (driving up consumer costs) but aren't selling as much (reducing jobs).

Long term (over a half decade or more)... Ok, by that time businesses may have had time to build up their own production capacities. But, there are still some things that cannot be produced withing the US (which, since Trump's tariffs tend to be across-the-board, will increase prices for consumers), foreign countries will still not want to import stuff from the U.S. (so still no export markets and those jobs will still be gone).

So no, there is no scenario where this "works out" for the U.S.

One of the problems is that the US is basically pissing off everyone in the world. Meanwhile, Canada, Europe, China, Japan, etc. are all talking about strengthening their own trade relationships. So the US will basically be isolated, unable to handle any "shocks", whereas other countries will be in a better position to weather any problems.

Can the US economy survive this brutal slaughter and actually come out better as a result?

Nope.

Back in the 1930s, the US imposed a set of Tariffs (called the Smoot-Hawley tariff act). It was widely seen as making the great depression more severe.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smoot–Hawley_Tariff_Act

Will the US ever return to its prominence on the world stage? From what my limited knowledge tells me, unfortunately, the answer is no.

In order to return to prominence, the US will have to demonstrate that they are a trustworthy ally again, and to do that they will either have to give democrats significant political power for the next decade or so, or the republican party will have to exhibit a significant shift in priorities.

Since the electorate decided to give the presidency to a convicted felon with a string of failed businesses instead of a woman, its obvious that voters cannot be counted on to reject the republicans, and since pretty much every GOP member is submitting to Trump, it is unlikely change will come from within their party.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Trump statement on increasing tariffs on China

Donald J. Trump
@realDonaldTrump
Yesterday, China issued Retaliatory Tariffs of 34%, on top of their already record setting Tariffs, Non-Monetary Tariffs, Illegal Subsidization of companies, and massive long term Currency Manipulation, despite my warning that any country that Retaliates against the U.S. by issuing additional Tariffs, above and beyond their already existing long term Tariff abuse of our Nation, will be immediately met with new and substantially higher Tariffs, over and above those initially set. Therefore, if China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose ADDITIONAL Tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th. Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated! Negotiations with other countries, which have also requested meetings, will begin taking place immediately. Thank you for your attention to this matter!

 

[Andy_Ross]

Additionally, all talks with China concerning their requested meetings with us will be terminated!

 

[I Am The Scum]

Is it possible that these tariffs
(however remotely) will actually do what the administration says they will do? Can the US economy survive this brutal slaughter and actually come out better as a result? Will the US ever return to its prominence on the world stage?

0% chance. Building up a factory and staffing for a new industry is extremely expensive and time consuming. Chances are that the stated tariffs will be radically different in a month (Higher? Lower? Who knows!), so nobody is going to take on that kind of risk in the middle of so much uncertainty. You'd be better off gambling your money on something safer, like a slot machine.

 

[angrysoba]

the manufacturing the us already does is highly automated and efficient. the labor intensive stuff that can’t be automated efficiently was shipped out years ago.

you have to realize you can automate certain processes and only after you understand them well and the equipment to do it exists. this is not the case for a lot of stuff.

Not just shipped out, even then it was automated.

It’s insane to think that you will have iPhones built in the US from millions of humans manually screwing in components.

For a start, they would be very badly made if so.

It would be inefficient.

It would be massively expensive.

It would make American workers reduced to sweatshop labour.

So probably Trump’s plan.

 

[The Don]

Whose going to swerve first!?

The Chinese and US economies are very much tied up with each other, so this seems like economic MAD.

Not quite IMO, China still has the rest of the world to trade with.

China can just about cope without a large US market (though no matter how high the tariffs, the US market won't go away) but the US will have a much tougher time without China - not least because China may no longer respect US Intellectual Property.

 

[Andy_Ross]

This is a great opportunity to expose the hoax of China's dominance and leverage. Trump is right to call their bluff.

 

[Andy_Ross]

Ursula von der Leyen says Europe is ready to negotiate with Washington, as they've offered "zero-for-zero tariffs" for industrial goods the bloc exports to the US.

The bloc is "always ready for a good deal", she says, adding that they are prepared to respond with countermeasures and says the EU will "protect ourselves against indirect effects through trade diversion".

 

[dirtywick]

Not just shipped out, even then it was automated.

It’s insane to think that you will have iPhones built in the US from millions of humans manually screwing in components.

For a start, they would be very badly made if so.

It would be inefficient.

It would be massively expensive.

It would make American workers reduced to sweatshop labour.

So probably Trump’s plan.

and that’s iphones, think about who would want to invest tens of millions into r&d machines that don’t yet exist and building factories from the ground up to make all the worthless crap we get from asia for cheap. there’s just no sense in it.

 

[angrysoba]

A senior White House official has told ABC News that the additional 50% tariff that Donald Trump threatened to impose on China earlier would be in addition to the 34% “reciprocal” tariff Trump announced last week set to go into effect on Wednesday and the 20% that is already in place, making for a potential total of a 104%

 

[TellyKNeasuss]

Is it possible that these tariffs (however remotely) will actually do what the administration says they will do?

The answer to this question is obviously "No" simply because the administration has given a number of different reasons for the tariffs some of which are contradictory. E.g., tariffs can't simultaneously increase govt. revenue and promote the switch to domestically-produced alternatives because producing products in the USA would eliminate imports and therefore eliminate revenues generated by tariffs.

 

[angrysoba]

• Peter Navarro, widely seen as the architect of Trump’s tariff plans, earlier today dismissed tech-billionaire Elon Musk’s push for “zero tariffs” between the US and Europe, calling the Tesla CEO a “car assembler” reliant on parts from other countries.

 

[Mojo]

Jon Cooper (@joncooper-us.bsky.social)

What a ◊◊◊◊◊◊◊ idiot.

bsky.app

The Mexican language?

Just wait till he finds out that public schools are teaching kids to use Arabic numerals!

 

[Andy_Ross]

−138.79 nearly made all the days losses back.

 

[kookbreaker]

Dead cat bounce.

 

[shemp]

About that sudden upturn in the market this morning:

Fake News Story on Tariffs Pause Causes Mayhem in Stock Market

Here’s how a fake news story on Trump’s tariffs created mass volatility in the stock market.

newrepublic.com

The stock market is in such a dire state that an inaccurate report of a 90-day pause on Trump’s global tariffs gave investors real confidence, making the market shoot up before it crashed back down.

On Monday morning, Trump economic adviser Kevin Hassett went on Fox News and was asked if the administration would consider such a pause.

“The president is going to decide what the president is going to decide. There are more than 50 countries in negotiation with the president…. I would urge everyone, especially Bill [Ackman], to ease up the rhetoric a little bit,” Hassett replied vaguely. “Even if you think that there will be some negative effect from the trade side, that’s still a small share of the GDP. This idea that it’s gonna be a nuclear winter or something like that is completely irresponsible.”

Verified X user Walter Bloomberg mistook this quote for a resounding yes and reported that the administration was indeed considering a 90-day tariff pause “FOR ALL COUNTRIES EXCEPT CHINA.” The news was soon read on CNBC, causing the stock market to move positively for the first time in days, by 7 to 10 percent.

“INSANE market action right now. Market exploded higher on a headline attributed to Kevin Hassett,” said Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal. “And now nobody can figure out where it came from and the markets are diving again. An 8% surge and then a 3.5% plunge in a matter of seconds.”

The White House denied all claims of the pause and Bloomberg deleted his X post, falsely attributing the report to Reuters.

IDIOTS!

 

[carlosy]

0% chance. Building up a factory and staffing for a new industry is extremely expensive and time consuming. Chances are that the stated tariffs will be radically different in a month (Higher? Lower? Who knows!), so nobody is going to take on that kind of risk in the middle of so much uncertainty. You'd be better off gambling your money on something safer, like a slot machine.

The thing is, who is going to blink first:

- The countries that will sell less of their products because of the tariffs
or
- The US because people are going to be angry because they either can't consume these expensive products or because of the high prices.

With the US being 50% a cult, I wouldn't be surprised if the US can hold their breath longer. Cult members are all-in for their leader.

 

[stanfr]

The thing is, who is going to blink first:

- The countries that will sell less of their products because of the tariffs
or
- The US because people are going to be angry because they either can't consume these expensive products or because of the high prices.

With the US being 50% a cult, I wouldn't be surprised if the US can hold their breath longer. Cult members are all-in for their leader.

well it's not 50%, probably closer to 20-25. There's quite a few voters with buyer's regret already.

 

[Darat]

the manufacturing the us already does is highly automated and efficient. the labor intensive stuff that can’t be automated efficiently was shipped out years ago.

you have to realize you can automate certain processes and only after you understand them well and the equipment to do it exists. this is not the case for a lot of stuff.

Especially at the rate of change in many technologies: it is way more expensive to change automated production lines for the next iPhone than it is to have a cadre of slaves people that can adapt very quickly to the new rigging. And if they can't adapt quickly, you boot them out, just remember to have netting across the floors - that is much cheaper than having to clean up the human remains.

 

[dudalb]

Trump wants a big military parade in DC to celebrate his 79th birthday. This is hte kind of thing I expect from a tinhorn dictator in Latin Americand, not a POTUS.