Transwomen are not Women - Part 15

Yes it is, particularly as their cohort has a much greater offending rate than the general population...
Given that unscrupulous people can opt in via self-i.d. after criminal conviction (or during the trial process) I don't see how you can claim to know anything about the general population from looking at incarcerated individuals.
 
Given that unscrupulous people can opt in via self-i.d. after criminal conviction (or during the trial process) I don't see how you can claim to know anything about the general population from looking at incarcerated individuals.
The crime statistics on this have been posted previously in this thread. I went back and found them for acbytesla, and at another time for someone else... Ivor the Engineer IIRC.

I'm not doing it all again just because you can't keep up - I can't be arsed doing your homework for you.
 
I'm not sure it will be obvious to everyone why this article is relevant to the topic under discussion, but this is what the author is referring to.

 
The crime statistics on this have been posted previously in this thread.
Again, crime statistics won't tell us anything about actual transwomen if you allow unscrupulous criminals to opt in to womanhood during a criminal trial or thereafter during a period of incarceration. For the stats to be useful, you'd have to restrict the dataset to perpetrators having some official paperwork indicating a desire to change gender prior to committing a relevant offense. You have never done this.
 
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It appears that about half the trans convicts had a known history of trans-identifying before the offences were committed. So even if we assume all the rest are trying it on, still a large over-representation. Two really notorious offenders in Scotland, Dolatowski and that creep from Gala whose name I forget, were cosplaying women well before they raped. The Gala bloke was well known as the town trannie, and actually requested to be charged and tried as a man to avoid bringing (even more) trouble on the "trans community".
 
Men are already vastly overrepresented in violent crime stats; what is the risk ratio when holding sex constant?
 
Again, crime statistics won't tell us anything about actual transwomen if you allow unscrupulous criminals to opt in to womanhood during a criminal trial or thereafter during a period of incarceration.
How do you tell the difference between "actual transwomen" and "unscrupulous criminals"? Because the system is designed to make that distinction impossible.
 
How do you tell the difference between "actual transwomen" and "unscrupulous criminals"?
This is not my problem, since I'm not the one trying to make inferences from crime statistics to the larger population.
Because the system is designed to make that distinction impossible.
Agreed, especially if we're talking about UK or Canadian crime stats.
 
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This is not my problem, since I'm not the one trying to make inferences from crime statistics to the larger population.
And sexual predators in women's prisons isn't your problem either, since you're not in a women's prison.
 
This is not my problem, since I'm not the one trying to make inferences from crime statistics to the larger population.
Agreed, especially if we're talking about UK or Canadian crime stats.

And sexual predators in women's prisons isn't your problem either, since you're not in a women's prison.
It's frustrating how many people just ignore the whole issue of trans rights in public policy. It's exactly the difficult public policy questions that require the most scrutiny, the most moral and practical wrestling over our ideals. They shouldn't be the policy questions we dismiss as "not my problem".

(And yes, I understand Zig is being sarcastic. I'm building on his response to damion.)
 
We've already posted what percentage of declared transwomen are in prison for sexual offences, several times. Do I have to go back and find that again? (And that's only the ones that were caught and convicted and sentenced to a prison term.)
 
It's frustrating how many people just ignore the whole issue of trans rights in public policy.
I don't think there is anyone left posting here willing to argue that natal males ought to be housed in women's prisons (especially based on self-i.d.) so what do you think is the relevant public policy question we can try to hash out?
And sexual predators in women's prisons isn't your problem either, since you're not in a women's prison.
See above.
 
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Some light reading for @d4m10n

paywall-removed link here

Almost two thirds of transgender prisoners who identify as female are convicted sex offenders, it has been revealed.
Out of the 245 trans women inmates, who are legally recognised as male, a total of 151, or 62 per cent, had committed at least one sexual offence.
Official figures showed that the number of prisoners who identify as transgender but do not have a Gender Recognition Certificate (GRC) rose by almost 10 per cent to 295 in 2024.

The figures get worse when we start to include children as the victims of violence....


At least 181 of the 244 transgender inmates, more than 74 per cent, are in jail for crimes including rape, forcing under-age children into having sex, grievous bodily harm and robbery. Up to 144 transgender women, men who identify as females, are housed in male prisons while five are currently imprisoned in female jails - including at least one top-security institution where murderers and terrorists are being detained.
The high levels of violent crimes among male prisoners who identify as women demonstrates why they should not be detained in female prisons, women’s rights campaigners argue.

Comparisons of official MOJ statistics from March / April 2019 (most recent official count of transgender prisoners):
76 sex offenders out of 129 transwomen = 58.9%
125 sex offenders out of 3812 women in prison = 3.3%
13234 sex offenders out of 78781 men in prison = 16.8%
Transwomen are 3.5 times more likely to be convicted of sexual assaults than males
Transwomen are 18 times more likely to be convicted of sexual assaults than females

Note: 2019 is before male prisoners were simply able to self ID as women to get housed in women's prisons.



In 2018 the MOJ released statistics showing half of the people in prison who declare themselves transgender have been sentenced with one or more sexual offences. We have now obtained new data which is the clearest and most recent evidence confirming the vast majority of these trans sex offenders were born male. These MOJ statistics show that transgender women exhibit a male-type pattern of criminality. We conclude that transwomen in prison exhibit a propensity to sexual crime that matches their birth sex and not their gender identity.

The fact that half of male prisoners who identify as transgender have been sentenced for sexual crime is strong evidence that transwomen exhibit a high propensity to commit sexual crime similar to that observed for men. They do not exhibit a low propensity to commit sexual crime like that observed for women.
It appears that identifying as a woman does not reduce the risk that male people can pose to others. If identifying as a women did reduce the propensity to commit sex crime to female levels we would have expected to see just 3 or 4 of transwomen in prison with sex crime convictions.
 
I don't think there is anyone left posting here willing to argue that natal males ought to be housed in women's prisons (especially based on self-i.d.) so what do you think is the relevant public policy question we can try to hash out?
You missed my point entirely. It's got nothing to do with what we're in disagreement about. It's about the fact that what is or isn't someone's business isn't nearly as clear cut as your prior post suggested.
 
2019 is before male prisoners were simply able to self ID as women to get housed in women's prisons.
Your own link refutes this claim:

The new regulations came into force in January 2017. Three months later the number of transgender prisoners had almost doubled to 125 (Ministry of Justice 2017, p. 13). The growth might have reflected the new dispensation which incentivized prisoners to declare a gender identity.​

If you get the chance, have a look at the entire PDF. You might be surprised to find quotes like this: "The group had no statistically significant differences from other natal males, for convictions in general or for violent offending."
 
You missed my point entirely. It's got nothing to do with what we're in disagreement about. It's about the fact that what is or isn't someone's business isn't nearly as clear cut as your prior post suggested.
You missed my point entirely: The burden of proof remains upon the claimant.

Since I'm not the one making the claim, it's not my problem that the claim is difficult to back up with data.
 
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