Merged Justin Trudeau resigns

[LiteBright]

Another day, another poll that favours the LPC. Leger, considered to the gold standard of Canadian political polling just released their latest which has the LPC and CPC in a dead heat at 37% apiece. The liberal rise has come at the expense of the NDP, Bloc and CPC as people coalesce around an alternative to the Poilievre led conservatives.

It should be noted that the LPC has a much more efficient vote distribution while conservative support is concentrated in the western provinces. The CPC generally need roughly a 6% nationwide polling lead to be considered leading in seat projection.

No wonder lill PP has been so quiet of late about demanding an immediate election. His only hope now is to hope Carney stumbles while campaigning where he is untested. Carney, naturally will want to call an election sooner rather than later to keep the campaign short. I see a spring election on the horizon.

More detail here.

Leger data

 

[dudalb]

Looks like between the replacement of Trudeau by Carney and Trump's attacks on Canada, the Conservative's lead in the polls has more or less vanished.

From: https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/art...-liberals-as-concern-about-trump-rises-nanos/
As Canadians’ concerns about U.S. President Donald Trump rise, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservative polling advantage appears to have evaporated, with the Liberals now just one point behind according to the latest Nanos numbers. In new weekly tracking released Tuesday, the Conservatives are at 36 per cent support, the Liberals – now under the leadership of Mark Carney – have risen to 35 per cent support, and the NDP are at 15 per cent.

I expect an election will be called fairly quickly.

Despite the Conservatives trying to out do the Liberals when it comes to Canaidan Flag Waving.

 

[Blue Mountain]

Leger, considered to the gold standard of Canadian political polling just released their latest which has the LPC and CPC in a dead heat at 37% apiece.

The interesting thing is both the Liberals and the Conservatives have been elected with majority governments on just 37% of the popular vote. It all comes down to where that 37% of the voters lives.

 

[Segnosaur]

Looks like between the replacement of Trudeau by Carney and Trump's attacks on Canada, the Conservative's lead in the polls has more or less vanished.

Despite the Conservatives trying to out do the Liberals when it comes to Canaidan Flag Waving.

Not sure how effective that will be. I think polling shows that there is more belief that Carney is the best one to deal with Trump.

(The thing that sticks with me most about conservative ads is not the flag waving, but them continually harping on "carbon tax carney".

 

[Segnosaur]

The interesting thing is both the Liberals and the Conservatives have been elected with majority governments on just 37% of the popular vote. It all comes down to where that 37% of the voters lives.

Heck, in the last election the Liberals actually managed to get a minority government, despite the fact that the conservatives got more votes.

 

[LiteBright]

Not sure how effective that will be. I think polling shows that there is more belief that Carney is the best one to deal with Trump.

(The thing that sticks with me most about conservative ads is not the flag waving, but them continually harping on "carbon tax carney".

I'm really surprised that the cons aren't pivoting away from these juvenile attack ads that try to stick someone with a nickname. I really don't think that is where the public mood is at right now. It all just sounds a little too trumpian. Canadians want someone who will stand up to trump and navigate our way through this, not someone who is busy giving people nicknames, like...um...trump.

The LPC has removed the cons 2 biggest election issues which were Trudeau and the carbon tax. Now Justin is gone and Carney says he'll cancel the tax. The cons are scrambling for a new message after honing that one for the better part of the last 18 months.

 

[Steve]

I'm really surprised that the cons aren't pivoting away from these juvenile attack ads that try to stick someone with a nickname. I really don't think that is where the public mood is at right now. It all just sounds a little too trumpian. Canadians want someone who will stand up to trump and navigate our way through this, not someone who is busy giving people nicknames, like...um...trump.

The LPC has removed the cons 2 biggest election issues which were Trudeau and the carbon tax. Now Justin is gone and Carney says he'll cancel the tax. The cons are scrambling for a new message after honing that one for the better part of the last 18 months.

Recent events their Trump mini-me a liability that will be hard to overcome.

 

[LiteBright]

Recent events their Trump mini-me a liability that will be hard to overcome.

His lies about Trudeau legalizing crack smoking in hospitals was basically Canada's "...their eating the dogs, eating the cats!" monent (except that it came prior.

If I were the libs I would be creating an ad right now that would compare those 2 comments. Maybe some others too showing PP doing/saying trumpian things like talking up crypto, hanging out with convoyers and some pretty unsavoury groups like diagolon(?). Being tied to trump is political death here.

If I were the cons I would be calling the Doug Ford camp and asking if he would be willing to drop into the race if ol Pierre suddenly had health problems and sadly had to drop out. Ford would be an auto-win with his performance lately. He's caught the attention of the US and seems to be the only politician of any stripe here that is commanding any respect from Washington. [/sarcasm]