Cont: Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla II

jeremyp said:
It's worth noting that, on an operational level, both companies already operate without him. Given his incessant tweeting and his political shenanigans, he can't have much time left for running either company.

I suspect that, at SpaceX, he is responsible only for setting ridiculous deadlines and then shouting at people who fail to make them. He probably also helps with the fund raising. Without Musk, SpaceX will have to cut back on all the cutting edge stuff that is losing them money, like Starship and possibly Starlink or they will go broke without all the continuous investment that Musk brings in.

I suspect that, at Tesla, he is responsible only for stupid ideas, setting ridiculous deadlines and then shouting at people who fail to make them. He also helps prop up the share price. Without Musk, Tesla's share price would take a massive hit as people realise it is just a car company, and one with significant challenges ahead. There will be a spike in sales as people who would never buy anything off Musk change their minds about buying a Tesla. If it survives long enough, Tesla will become a solid mid sized car company with some higher end products. However, I think it is more likely to get bought by one of the larger car companies.
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I've mentioned it one or two times in the recent past that he's a top 20 in the world Diablo 4 player. That takes hundreds of play time hours, and you have to start afresh each new season so that isn't from when the game was released. (Now there is indication that he cheats, he was just banned on another game for cheating but whatever it is still a time sink.)

Why is this a matter in regards to his running his companies? He uploaded a video of him playing Diablo 4, turned out he recorded the game with his microphone on. And what we heard was him getting a briefing about the first successful grab and hold landing from folk in SpaceX. Folk need to let that sink in, he was recording himself playing Diablo 4 at a World champion level when he was taking a serious update on SpaceX successful but almost not first grab and hold landing.

That gives a window into his priorities and they are not the running of his companies. If you think he is integral to the success of his companies that should be very worrying.
 
a_unique_person said:
What is Starship supposed to be able to lift to orbit?
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A ****ing lot of whatever SpaceX wants.


He still has no interior.
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You do understand that the Starship is still in its early development stages? The house being built next door to me had its footings dug yesterday, it still has no interior.


How does a payload get out of Starship?
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Again, the Starship is still in its early development stages. The refueling version will use pipes. The HLS version will use crew hatches, other versions will use clamshell doors similar to the space shuttle. My guess is there will be many more variations as development continues.

Musk is testing a 'pez dispenser', which is only for small loads.
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The "Pez dispenser" is for the v2 Starlink satellites. Starship v3 will be able to dispense 100 of those satellites at 2750 pounds apiece. That's 275,000 pounds per launch, the space shuttle had a maximum capacity of 60,000 pounds. Hardly a "small load."
 
When did Musk promise the Starship to be ready? When does it exit "early development stages"? What role does Musk play in any of this other than making promises he and his company can't meet?
 
plague311 said:
When did Musk promise the Starship to be ready? When does it exit "early development stages"? What role does Musk play in any of this other than making promises he and his company can't meet?
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Maybe 8,9,10 years ago it was 3 or 4 years later. By now SpaceX would be on Mars happily robotically producing liquid methane and oxygen, ready for the refuelling of manned landings.

But, er, the schedule slipped a little. Strange ... it keeps doing that.
 
plague311 said:
When did Musk promise the Starship to be ready? When does it exit "early development stages"? What role does Musk play in any of this other than making promises he and his company can't meet?
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"Promises."

As far as I know, neither SpaceX's investors nor its customers have alleged broken promises. NASA seems to be quite satisfied with SpaceX's efforts to meet its contractual obligations. Nor, as far as I know, has the government alleged any misrepresentations in tax filings, SEC filings, etc., above Musk's signature as chief executive officer of the corporation.

Musk's aspirational brochure-speak is not binding on SpaceX. It creates no obligation or commitment on the part of the company, to deliver anything Musk described, to anyone at all.
 
theprestige said:
"Promises."

As far as I know, neither SpaceX's investors nor its customers have alleged broken promises. NASA seems to be quite satisfied with SpaceX's efforts to meet its contractual obligations. Nor, as far as I know, has the government alleged any misrepresentations in tax filings, SEC filings, etc., above Musk's signature as chief executive officer of the corporation.

Musk's aspirational brochure-speak is not binding on SpaceX. It creates no obligation or commitment on the part of the company, to deliver anything Musk described, to anyone at all.
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The problem is that Musk's lunatic management style, oligarchic power trip and ludicrous promises are leaking out into the real world now, with drastic consequences. He is seriously trying to promote Putin loving Farage as the next PM and he had all the money he needs to help that happen. He can openly manipulate Congress.
 
a_unique_person said:
The problem is that Musk's lunatic management style, oligarchic power trip and ludicrous promises are leaking out into the real world now, with drastic consequences. He is seriously trying to promote Putin loving Farage as the next PM and he had all the money he needs to help that happen. He can openly manipulate Congress.
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Tell it to @plague311. He's the one who brought up "promises".
 
Darat said:
I've mentioned it one or two times in the recent past that he's a top 20 in the world Diablo 4 player. That takes hundreds of play time hours, and you have to start afresh each new season so that isn't from when the game was released. (Now there is indication that he cheats, he was just banned on another game for cheating but whatever it is still a time sink.)

Why is this a matter in regards to his running his companies? He uploaded a video of him playing Diablo 4, turned out he recorded the game with his microphone on. And what we heard was him getting a briefing about the first successful grab and hold landing from folk in SpaceX. Folk need to let that sink in, he was recording himself playing Diablo 4 at a World champion level when he was taking a serious update on SpaceX successful but almost not first grab and hold landing.

That gives a window into his priorities and they are not the running of his companies. If you think he is integral to the success of his companies that should be very worrying.
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Actually he's not really a top 20 player. What he was was one of the top twenty fastest players to full clear a certain high level dungeon per submissions to a website whose submissions base is in the low thousands, much smaller than the active player base for D4. In terms of PvP ladder rankings, probably the best approximation, he's nowhere.

Oh and the submission that had him in the top twenty times was made during a period where a patch had created an unintentional exploit which made running the dungeon much easier.
 
plague311 said:
When did Musk promise the Starship to be ready? When does it exit "early development stages"? What role does Musk play in any of this other than making promises he and his company can't meet?
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He promised it ready in 2019, then 2021, then 2022, now 2027 (IIRC on the last one). SpaceX is going the way of Tesla, abjectly failing to miss multiple targets.

And on his role at the company he holds the majority of shares with voting rights and holds at least two board positions CEO and CTO (I think he's also Chairman too but am not certain).
 
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Darat said:
I've mentioned it one or two times in the recent past that he's a top 20 in the world Diablo 4 player. That takes hundreds of play time hours, and you have to start afresh each new season so that isn't from when the game was released. (Now there is indication that he cheats, he was just banned on another game for cheating but whatever it is still a time sink.)
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My point was that he spends so much time on external activities that he can't be running either company, at least not on an operational level. I apologise for not listing all of his external activities, but it doesn't change the point.

Darat said:
Why is this a matter in regards to his running his companies? He uploaded a video of him playing Diablo 4, turned out he recorded the game with his microphone on. And what we heard was him getting a briefing about the first successful grab and hold landing from folk in SpaceX. Folk need to let that sink in, he was recording himself playing Diablo 4 at a World champion level when he was taking a serious update on SpaceX successful but almost not first grab and hold landing.

That gives a window into his priorities and they are not the running of his companies. If you think he is integral to the success of his companies that should be very worrying.
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SpaceX has a virtually continuous programme of raising external finance. I believe Musk is integral to the success of that. No investment and SpaceX either goes bankrupt or has to cut back on its non profitable activities. It's difficult to say what at SpaceX is profitable and what isn't, but Starship is definitely a big revenue sink at the moment and it's a fair bet that Starlink does not make money either. Falcon 9 is probably profitable, but it would not surprise me if it eventually turns out it isn't. No Musk means much less external investment which means a smaller or bankrupt SpaceX.

Without Musk Tesla's share price has a massive downward adjustment to the level of other car companies of its size. Given that they have significant challenges with an aging model fleet and sales that are flat, I would expect their shares to become cheap for a car company of their size. I think that would make them an acquisition target for somebody else.

Without Musk, both companies would go through some pain but would be stronger if they survive the transition.
 
Bogative said:
A ****ing lot of whatever SpaceX wants.



You do understand that the Starship is still in its early development stages?
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They started developing Starship in 2012. When does early development end? For perspective, the entire Apollo Space Programme lasted eleven years - less than Starship has been in "early development".

Bogative said:
The house being built next door to me had its footings dug yesterday, it still has no interior.
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Will it still have no interior in twelve years time?

Bogative said:
Again, the Starship is still in its early development stages. The refueling version will use pipes. The HLS version will use crew hatches,
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Ah yes. The competitors to Starship for HLS had mock ups of their landing craft including the interiors a year or two ago. SpaceX had managed to create a crane to get people onto the ground, sort of. And yet, SpaceX got the contract on the decision of a NASA administrator who went on to take a nice job at SpaceX. Hmmm....

Bogative said:
other versions will use clamshell doors similar to the space shuttle. My guess is there will be many more variations as development continues.
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My guess is that Starship is a boondoggle.
Bogative said:
The "Pez dispenser" is for the v2 Starlink satellites. Starship v3 will be able to dispense 100 of those satellites at 2750 pounds apiece. That's 275,000 pounds per launch, the space shuttle had a maximum capacity of 60,000 pounds. Hardly a "small load."
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Actually, Starship v3 will be able to lift much more than that, unless Musk is lying again. The trouble is that it was meant to be putting Starlink satellites into orbit in 2023. Late again.
 
theprestige said:
"Promises."

As far as I know, neither SpaceX's investors nor its customers have alleged broken promises. NASA seems to be quite satisfied with SpaceX's efforts to meet its contractual obligations. Nor, as far as I know, has the government alleged any misrepresentations in tax filings, SEC filings, etc., above Musk's signature as chief executive officer of the corporation.

Musk's aspirational brochure-speak is not binding on SpaceX. It creates no obligation or commitment on the part of the company, to deliver anything Musk described, to anyone at all.
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Well NASA may not be publicly unhappy, but privately they must be incandescent. SpaceX is three years behind the schedule that was in place in December 2020. Think about that: in four years, they have slipped three years and that's assuming they get the orbital test done pretty soon.
 
The only reason why SpaceX exists is because Congress can't bash a private company the way it does NASA - if it had the same space to make mistakes, it would be further along than SpaceX is now.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
More proof that humans, even the best of us, are more ruled by emotion than logic.

Musk is dangerous for sure, but not as dangerous as apathy in the face of an existential threat (global warming). Right now we need people who aren't afraid to be disruptive. If only 'the left' hadn't pushed him away for emotional reasons we could have harnessed that power. Your attitude isn't helping.
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Musk needs to know there are limits to his insanity. The alternatives are perfectly good cars.
 
Roger Ramjets said:
More proof that humans, even the best of us, are more ruled by emotion than logic.

Musk is dangerous for sure, but not as dangerous as apathy in the face of an existential threat (global warming). Right now we need people who aren't afraid to be disruptive. If only 'the left' hadn't pushed him away for emotional reasons we could have harnessed that power. Your attitude isn't helping.
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He's an existential threat. And it isn't the left's job to please a multi-billionaire. He all of a sudden hates the left because they refuse to support his union busting? Or that a judge refused his scheme to make him 50 billion dollars wealthier in a stock scheme?
 
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