Did incumbent parties fare well in any highly developed democracies in 2024?

[d4m10n]

Over in USA politics, I've seen a few posts saying basically that U.S. performance needs to be baselined against global trends, e.g. COVID-19, inflation, immigration, incumbent party vote share. This post is about whether there were any exceptions to the rule that incumbent parties fared badly this year, in the most developed nations which are globally interconnected by trade and treaty.

I've seen a few think pieces on this topic (e.g. Pew, AP, VoH) but decided to put together my own list anyhow.

1. Austria — Incumbent ÖVP tanked by insurgent FPÖ.
2. Belgium — Incumbent coalition government loses seats but holds on to power.
3. Canada — No nationwide election; incumbent PM in trouble.
4. Denmark — No general election for seats in the Folketing (previous election 2022).
5. France — Incumbent alliance loses seats to both left-wing and right-wing opposition.
6. Germany — No general election, 21^st Bundestag will be chosen next year.
7. Greece — No general election this year (previous election 2023).
8. Iceland — Halla Tómasdóttir wins Icelandic presidential election, defeating former prime minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir; neither candidate was incumbent at the time.
9. Ireland — Incumbent coalition parties Fianna Fáil & Fine Gael each lost vote share, but only marginally, and still managed to increase their seats in the Dáil Éireann. Greens essentially wiped out.
10. Italy — Previous general election in 2022; only regional elections in 2024. Slight anti-incumbent results from the latter.
11. Luxembourg — Previous general election held last year.
12. Netherlands — Incumbent Rutte succeeded by Schoof as PM.
13. Norway — Parliamentary election to be held next year.
14. Portugal — Center-right minority government ousts long term incumbent Socialist Party.
15. Spain — Previous general election held in 2023.
16. Sweden — Previous general election held in 2022.
17. Switzerland — Swiss politics are far too collegial for me to wrap my head around; SVP appears to be on the ascendent due to immigration policy backlash.
18. Turkey — Incumbent party loses 15 provinces previously held.
19. United Kingdom — Resounding loss for incumbent conservative party.
20. United States — Incumbent center-left party loses only nationwide election.

I'm not seeing any major exceptions so far, unless you count Ireland, which perhaps we should.

My questions here are threefold: Why is this global trend happening? Are there any solid exceptions? Do the exceptions tell us something about the overall trend? I'd be especially interested in hearing from people outside of the US & UK, which are the only two nations I'm already relatively familiar with, politically speaking.

 

[ahhell]

So, you seem to be saying incumbent parties did not fare well in contrast to the op title?

If so, I'm sure there are some exceptions, but I think its worth noting. Inflation sucks more than most other economic things. Its emmediate and very noticeable by the folks where as GDP, stock market value, even unemployment is mostly just felt by the unemployed. I doubt it matters as much but there is also a general sense of international relations getting really bad so certainly didn't help.

Short version, 90% inflation. Everyone feels it every time they buy groceries. In the US the administration's response was basically, what are you talking about, inflation is down and look all this other stuff you don't care about. B. Clinton could have handled that much better.

Compare the US to the UK, Trump squeezed by where the conservatives were beaten like a drum. Really shows you have bad a candidate Trump was. Halley or Tim Scott would have had a landslide.

 

[d4m10n]

So, you seem to be saying incumbent parties did not fare well in contrast to the op title?

I mean, it's an open question but I'm definitely leaning that way.

If so, I'm sure there are some exceptions, but I think its worth noting.

I'm less sure. Maybe Mexico, though they are fairly well down the development indicies.

 

[Steve]

Nova Scotia Canada, November 25th. Conservative party provincial government increased their majority by 9 seats from 34 to 43 out of a total of 54.

 

[icerat]

Nova Scotia Canada, November 25th. Conservative party provincial government increased their majority by 9 seats from 34 to 43 out of a total of 54.

I'm unfamiliar with Canadian politics, how much are the provincial government's held responsible for economic issues?

Short version, 90% inflation. Everyone feels it every time they buy groceries. In the US the administration's response was basically, what are you talking about, inflation is down and look all this other stuff you don't care about. B. Clinton could have handled that much better.

The pandemic caused and continues to cause economic issues globally. Even though inflation in many places is now under control, that doesn't change the fact prices are higher than pre-pandemic - there was no negative inflation bringing them back down again. This focus on current inflation and ignoring the impact of recent inflation is IMO political suicide.

 

[ahhell]

I'm unfamiliar with Canadian politics, how much are the provincial government's held responsible for economic issues?



The pandemic caused and continues to cause economic issues globally. Even though inflation in many places is now under control, that doesn't change the fact prices are higher than pre-pandemic - there was no negative inflation bringing them back down again. This focus on current inflation and ignoring the impact of recent inflation is IMO political suicide.

I agree, the administration's response to complaints about the economy was at the very least, tin eared.

 

[d4m10n]

The pandemic caused and continues to cause economic issues globally.

And presumably causes the most serious issues in the most highly developed and economically interconnected parts of the world, which is why I focused on the oldest OECD nations in the OP.

This focus on current inflation and ignoring the impact of recent inflation is IMO political suicide.

I'm unsure whether there was a non-suicidal messaging package for the parties which presided over the post-pandemic inflation. Even though U.S. policymakers handled the post-crisis recovery fairly well, they still took the blame for the inflation which inevitably struck post-lockdown.

 

[ahhell]

In the US, presidents get way too much credit and blame for the economy. To the extent their policies have impact, its mostly years later. Possible exception being Trump and Biden both dumping money into the economy which they couldn't have done without congress. But POTUs is screwed on it regardless, "It's not my fault" doesn't really play well.

 

[arthwollipot]

Every country on your list except for the US and Canada is in Europe. Did you check Asia, Africa, South America or Oceania?

 

[LiteBright]

Nova Scotia Canada, November 25th. Conservative party provincial government increased their majority by 9 seats from 34 to 43 out of a total of 54.

Ontario here so I'm not steeped in Nova Scotian politics. How much do you think this election result was affirming the record of the provincial conservatives versus punishing the federal liberals?

Next year Canada will almost certainly elect our own trump-lite. An unintelligent populist who lies constantly and doesn't seem to understand policy beyond 3 word slogans. I'm already embarrassed about how Pierre Polyester will represent us on the world stage.

 

[Orphia Nay]

It's my observation that incumbents lose more often than not because we all put them under a magnifying glass.

They can't survive the intense scrutiny of every minute detail of their lives.

The opposition always look better by comparison because they're not in charge so we can't blame them for everything that goes wrong.

 

[novaphile]

It's my observation that incumbents lose more often than not because we all put them under a magnifying glass.

They can't survive the intense scrutiny of every minute detail of their lives.

The opposition always look better by comparison because they're not in charge so we can't blame them for everything that goes wrong.

Plus there is a voting cohort, who always vote against the incumbent government, no matter who.
I'm sure there's a technical name for that group, but it's been too long since I've studied politics.

 

[rjh01]

Plus there is a voting cohort, who always vote against the incumbent government, no matter who.
I'm sure there's a technical name for that group, but it's been too long since I've studied politics.

It's my observation that incumbents lose more often than not because we all put them under a magnifying glass.

They can't survive the intense scrutiny of every minute detail of their lives.

The opposition always look better by comparison because they're not in charge so we can't blame them for everything that goes wrong.

There is a simple test for this. How many elections have these parties won previously? You would predict only one or maybe two. If the majority have won at least two elections then the above statements are overstated.

 

[jt512]

Over in USA politics, I've seen a few posts saying basically that U.S. performance needs to be baselined against global trends, e.g. COVID-19, inflation, immigration, incumbent party vote share. This post is about whether there were any exceptions to the rule that incumbent parties fared badly this year, in the most developed nations which are globally interconnected by trade and treaty.

I've seen a few think pieces on this topic (e.g. Pew, AP, VoH) but decided to put together my own list anyhow.

1. Austria — Incumbent ÖVP tanked by insurgent FPÖ.
2. Belgium — Incumbent coalition government loses seats but holds on to power.
3. Canada — No nationwide election; incumbent PM in trouble.
4. Denmark — No general election for seats in the Folketing (previous election 2022).
5. France — Incumbent alliance loses seats to both left-wing and right-wing opposition.
6. Germany — No general election, 21^st Bundestag will be chosen next year.
7. Greece — No general election this year (previous election 2023).
8. Iceland — Halla Tómasdóttir wins Icelandic presidential election, defeating former prime minister Katrín Jakobsdóttir; neither candidate was incumbent at the time.
9. Ireland — Incumbent coalition parties Fianna Fáil & Fine Gael each lost vote share, but only marginally, and still managed to increase their seats in the Dáil Éireann. Greens essentially wiped out.
10. Italy — Previous general election in 2022; only regional elections in 2024. Slight anti-incumbent results from the latter.
11. Luxembourg — Previous general election held last year.
12. Netherlands — Incumbent Rutte succeeded by Schoof as PM.
13. Norway — Parliamentary election to be held next year.
14. Portugal — Center-right minority government ousts long term incumbent Socialist Party.
15. Spain — Previous general election held in 2023.
16. Sweden — Previous general election held in 2022.
17. Switzerland — Swiss politics are far too collegial for me to wrap my head around; SVP appears to be on the ascendent due to immigration policy backlash.
18. Turkey — Incumbent party loses 15 provinces previously held.
19. United Kingdom — Resounding loss for incumbent conservative party.
20. United States — Incumbent center-left party loses only nationwide election.

I'm not seeing any major exceptions so far, unless you count Ireland, which perhaps we should.

My questions here are threefold: Why is this global trend happening? Are there any solid exceptions? Do the exceptions tell us something about the overall trend? I'd be especially interested in hearing from people outside of the US & UK, which are the only two nations I'm already relatively familiar with, politically speaking.

Of the countries that shifted away from incumbents, how many shifted toward the left versus toward the right.

 

[d4m10n]

Every country on your list except for the US and Canada is in Europe. Did you check Asia, Africa, South America or Oceania?

I only checked OECD founding nations, except for Mexico which I happened to know off the top of my head but didn't include on the list.

 

[d4m10n]

Of the countries that shifted away from incumbents, how many shifted toward the left versus toward the right.

That's surprisingly hard to answer when we're talking about rearranging a multiparty ruling coalition, so I really cannot tell for some of these without a local guide.

The examples where right-wing (or centre) parties gained at the expense of left-wing parties include Austria, Ireland (Greens wiped out), Portugal, Switzerland, and the U.S.

Counterexamples where left-wing (or centre) parties gained at the expense of right-wing parties include Turkey and the U.K.

 

[d4m10n]

I only checked OECD founding nations, except for Mexico which I happened to know off the top of my head but didn't include on the list.

I also asked Chat GPT-4 to come up with a list of democratic nations which held general elections in 2024, and found to my surprise that it has been muzzled on that subject. Anyone happen to have Claude?

 

[Darat]

I also asked Chat GPT-4 to come up with a list of democratic nations which held general elections in 2024, and found to my surprise that it has been muzzled on that subject. Anyone happen to have Claude?

That is a weird one - I asked for "a list of democratic nations which held general elections in 2024" and yep got told "...elections are highly complex and beyond my limits. It's best I step aside on this one,...". The same with Google's Gemini.

ETA: Claude at least had a go at it:

Unfortunately, I do not have a comprehensive list of all democratic nations that held general elections in 2024. Election schedules and results can vary significantly from country to country, and compiling a complete list would require extensive research.

However, here are a few examples of democratic countries that did hold general elections in 2024 based on publicly available information:

1. United States - The 2024 United States presidential election was held on November 5, 2024.
2. Canada - The 2024 Canadian federal election was held on October 21, 2024.
3. India - The 2024 Indian general election was held in April-May 2024.
4. Australia - The 2024 Australian federal election was held on May 18, 2024.
5. Germany - The 2024 German federal election was held on September 22, 2024.

Please note that this is not an exhaustive list, and the information provided may be subject to change or inaccuracies, as my knowledge is limited to what is publicly available. For the most up-to-date and comprehensive information on democratic elections, it would be best to consult authoritative sources such as international election monitoring organizations or reputable news outlets.

ETA: Meta's AI was by far the best:

Here's a list of democratic nations that held general elections in 2024:

Africa​

• • Algeria: Presidential election on September 7 ¹
  • Botswana: General election on October 30 ¹
  • Ghana: General election on December 7 ¹
  • Mauritius: General election on November 10 ¹
  • Mozambique: General election on October 9 ¹
  • Namibia: General election on November 27 ¹
  • Rwanda: General election on July 15 ¹
  • Senegal: Presidential election on March 24 and parliamentary election on November 17 ¹
  • South Africa: Various elections throughout the year ¹

Americas​

• • Brazil: Municipal elections on October 6 and 27 ¹
  • Canada: Provincial elections in British Columbia, New Brunswick, Saskatchewan, and Nova Scotia ¹
  • Chile: Municipal and regional elections on October 27 and November 24 ¹
  • Costa Rica: Municipal elections on February 4 ¹
  • Dominican Republic: General election on May 19 and municipal elections on February 17 ¹
  • El Salvador: General election on February 4 and March 3 ¹
  • Mexico: General election on June 2 ¹
  • Puerto Rico: General elections on November 5 ¹
  • United States: Presidential election on November 5 ¹ ²
  • Uruguay: General election on October 27 and November 24 ¹

Asia​

• • Bangladesh: General election on January 7 ¹
  • India: General election from April 19 to June 1 ¹
  • Indonesia: General election on February 14 ¹
  • Japan: General election on October 27 ¹
  • Maldives: Parliamentary election on April 21 ¹
  • Pakistan: General election on February 8 ¹
  • South Korea: Legislative election on April 10 ¹
  • Sri Lanka: Presidential election on September 21 and parliamentary election on November 14 ¹
  • Taiwan: Presidential and legislative elections on January 13 ¹

Europe​

• • Austria: Legislative election on September 29 ¹
  • Belgium: Federal election on June 9 ¹
  • Croatia: Parliamentary election on April 17 and presidential election on December 29 ¹
  • Cyprus: Local elections on June 9 ¹
  • Finland: Presidential election on January 28 and February 11 ¹
  • France: Legislative election on June 30 and July 7 ¹
  • Georgia: Parliamentary election on October 26 and presidential election on December 14 ¹
  • Germany: State elections on September 1 and 22 ¹
  • Greece: Local elections on October 6 ¹
  • Iceland: Presidential election on June 1 and parliamentary election on November 30 ¹
  • Ireland: Local elections on June 7 and general election on November 29 ¹
  • Italy: Local and regional elections on June 8-9 and 23-25 ¹
  • Lithuania: Presidential election on May 12 and 26 and parliamentary election on October 13 and 27 ¹
  • Poland: Local elections on April 7 and 21 ¹
  • Portugal: Legislative election on March 10 ¹
  • Romania: Presidential election on November 24 and parliamentary election on December 1 ¹
  • Spain: Regional elections on February 18, April 21, and May 12 ¹
  • United Kingdom: Various local elections throughout the year ¹

 

[d4m10n]

"Huzzah for Meta!" he said, abruptly dropping his face into his hands.

 

[icerat]

And presumably causes the most serious issues in the most highly developed and economically interconnected parts of the world, which is why I focused on the oldest OECD nations in the OP.

Haven't got the reference handy, but one group of German economists concluded that the impact of Long Covid alone was enough to move Germany from growth to recession in 2023. Everywhere is having problems with increasing long-term ill and labour supply issues. The US is doing better on the latter, but primarily due to immigration, so Trump is likely to nobble that.