We do have an answer though. Statistics (which seem comparable over several jurisdictions) show that around 0.2% of trans-identifying men are actually imprisoned for sexual offences at any one time.That's the baseline. To that we can add those who were convicted but did not receive a custodial sentence, and those who have already been released after serving their sentence. The available figures don't include these (although if we knew the average length of sentence then we might hazard a guess at how many convicted trans sex offenders have been released). Then of course there are those who were never caught, or who were acquitted because there was insufficient evidence. These estimates are left as an exercise for the reader.
Only 0.2%, I hear Hercules say? That's very few, precious little danger there. But that's assuming that every single trans sex offender is actually in prison at any given time.
If 0.2% can be disregarded, then how much easier is it to disregard 0.04%? Why, that's hardly anybody at all! Where's the risk? Congratulations, you just proved that men never commit sexual offences at all.
Indeed.
If we apply this 0.2% (which at first glance, seems a small number) to the male population of the UK, in other words, if cis men committed those types of crimes at the same rate as transwomen, there would right now be 70,000 men in prison JUST for those types of crimes
There is a problem with talking across jurisdictions though. For one thing, in the US, according to
this, 0.7% of the
entire population is in prison*. Whereas in the UK, apparently it is only about 0.15% of the population ("In 2024, the
prison population of the United Kingdom stood at approximately 97,800 people, of which 87,900 were in England and Wales, 8,000 in Scotland, and a further 1,900 were in Northern Ireland.").
In other words, the US locks up far more people (men, women and miscellaneous) than the UK, so I am skeptical, to say the least, that 0.2% of total transgender population are in prison for sexual offences
across jurisdictions.
*But, if we look at
only the male population in the US and how many of them are incarcerated for sexual offences, what do we find? Apparently it is something like 0.2%.
Anyway, we should also be careful with these kinds of statistics. There are all kinds of confounding factors such as age and ethnicity.
After all, what are we trying to do here? Are we trying to argue that, hey guess what, transgenders are mostly just a bunch of dirty pervs? Don't you think that there are plenty of people who would use exactly the same kinds of arguments to make all kinds of "I'm jus' sayin'" claims about black people, for example?
Similarly, the whole, "I saw a massive Twitter thread about criminal transgenders" is poor methodology. You must both be aware of the kinds of Twitter threads and general communities that collect rage-bait which is no doubt about real phenomena but presented in such a way as to radicalize people in some way. Have you not seen plenty of these types of anti-immigrant or racist accounts which will just be video of ethic minorities - black people, gypsies, Jews, Muslims, whoever - doing or saying things that will pander to the prejudices of the readers?
So I honestly don't see this unsubstantiated 0.2% figure as something that is worth accepting without heavy qualification.
The points can be easily made that segregation of biological sexes is done for perfectly good reasons and should remain for those exact reasons.
apnews.com
ocpathink.org
www.foxnews.com
