Who Will be First to Go Nuclear

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Which paranoid tyrant will be first?

 

[dudalb]

Which paranoid tyrant will be first?

I still think India and Pakistan is the most likely nuclear scnearo.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I think Iran will, but by accident: they'll nuke themselves trying to build a nuke, then of course lots of people will blame Israel for it.

 

[theprestige]

Yeah, my vote is for Iran, too.

Putin can't really trust either the missiles themselves nor the underlings between his launch order and the actual launch trigger itself.

Kim doesn't actually want to use nukes.

Trump probably doesn't want to use nukes either, but if he did the "deep state" would stop him.

None of the rest really want to use nukes, either.

Iran is the biggest wildcard.

 

[Blue Bubble]

Think you're a bit late for that ... Word War II was already nuclear with the USofA being the first to use nuclear weapons: Nuclear warfare^WP. Alas many (most?) seem to forget that.

 

[theprestige]

Think you're a bit late for that ... Word War II was already nuclear with the USofA being the first to use nuclear weapons: Nuclear warfare^WP. Alas many (most?) seem to forget that.

Fun fact: The US has possessed a nuclear arsenal, without using it, longer than any other nation on earth.

Anyway, it's good we've addressed these tangential points.

 

[novaphile]

Fun fact: The US has possessed a nuclear arsenal, without using it, longer than any other nation on earth.

Anyway, it's good we've addressed these tangential points.

Does that only work if you start the clock after the USA used nukes?

 

[Myriad]

Think you're a bit late for that ... Word War II was already nuclear with the USofA being the first to use nuclear weapons: Nuclear warfare^WP. Alas many (most?) seem to forget that.

Oh yeah. I did completely forget that, so all my life I've been concerned about nuclear war for no good reason. Why would a mere second nuclear war even matter? Thanks for the reassurance!

 

[theprestige]

Does that only work if you start the clock after the USA used nukes?

Nope! It always works. The US had bombs it never used before anyone else had bombs. The US completed an entire life cycle of nuclear weapons use before anyone else even had any nuclear weapons to use.

I think it's likely Iran will build and use a nuclear bomb long before the US breaks its record of nuclear silence.

 

[Delvo]

Strange list of choices, mostly options that aren't really options one way or another...

• Vladimir Putin: Would've done it by now if he were willing & able. People tend to lump all kinds of maniacs together, but they come in different colors & flavors. I figure he's the wrong kind of maniac for this. Also, even if he does want to, or if he were to end up wanting to, I'd call it only about a one in three or four chance that Russia still has any usable ones left anyway, given the state of the rest of their military.
• Donald Trump: Wrong kind of maniac again. And even if he were to get elected, and then if he were to give the order after that, everybody else who would be around him is used to trying to hide & cover for & deny how maniacal he is, which could only be achieved in this case by just not doing it. The most that will happen, if he gives the order behind closed doors instead of on Twitter, is a few "I was there" books with big shocking "reveal"s about it a couple of decades later. If it's a Twitter order so it's harder to deny & hide & cover for, they'll all instantly rush to be the first to boast to everybody else about how they were all the only cool head around who heroically stopped it from happening.
• Kim Jong Un: He seriously might want to, but he doesn't have the weapons. (They've made some nuclear explosions, but a test explosion is not a deployable weapon.) And even when he does get them, he'll still be too self-serving and too aware of the consequences to himself.
• Benjamin Netanyahu: He's definitely maniacal enough and the right kind of maniac, but his goal is not just to wipe out his enemies but also to take their land, and nuking it goes against that goal. Also, there's the question of whether Israel has the weapons. They've been "letting people think" they do for a long time now, but what Iran just did looks like calling the bluff.
• Ali Khamenei: He doesn't have the weapons. Also, even if he did, while I do believe he'd be willing to use them in self-defense, he wouldn't do it as the aggressor, and Israel has no incentive to push him that far, since his country isn't on their "attack" list.
• Xi Jinping

: He's the only non-American on the list who definitely unmistakably has them, but also the farthest from wanting to use them. To even include him in such a question is to have paid no attention to actual Chinese foreign policy in decades.[/list]

 

[arthwollipot]

Fun fact: The US has possessed a nuclear arsenal, without using it, longer than any other nation on earth.

Another fun fact: The US is the only nation on earth who has actually used nuclear weapons against an enemy during wartime.

 

[mumblethrax]

Another fun fact: The US is the only nation on earth who has actually used nuclear weapons against an enemy during wartime.

That was just practice, it doesn't count.

 

[bobdroege7]

Well, no maps showing a north and south Japan.

 

[shemp]

As a taxpayer, I demand that we use our nukes! We paid for them, we must use them!

 

[Gord_in_Toronto]

Strange list of choices, mostly options that aren't really options one way or another...

• Vladimir Putin: Would've done it by now if he were willing & able. People tend to lump all kinds of maniacs together, but they come in different colors & flavors. I figure he's the wrong kind of maniac for this. Also, even if he does want to, or if he were to end up wanting to, I'd call it only about a one in three or four chance that Russia still has any usable ones left anyway, given the state of the rest of their military.
• Donald Trump: Wrong kind of maniac again. And even if he were to get elected, and then if he were to give the order after that, everybody else who would be around him is used to trying to hide & cover for & deny how maniacal he is, which could only be achieved in this case by just not doing it. The most that will happen, if he gives the order behind closed doors instead of on Twitter, is a few "I was there" books with big shocking "reveal"s about it a couple of decades later. If it's a Twitter order so it's harder to deny & hide & cover for, they'll all instantly rush to be the first to boast to everybody else about how they were all the only cool head around who heroically stopped it from happening.
• Kim Jong Un: He seriously might want to, but he doesn't have the weapons. (They've made some nuclear explosions, but a test explosion is not a deployable weapon.) And even when he does get them, he'll still be too self-serving and too aware of the consequences to himself.
• Benjamin Netanyahu: He's definitely maniacal enough and the right kind of maniac, but his goal is not just to wipe out his enemies but also to take their land, and nuking it goes against that goal. Also, there's the question of whether Israel has the weapons. They've been "letting people think" they do for a long time now, but what Iran just did looks like calling the bluff.
• Ali Khamenei: He doesn't have the weapons. Also, even if he did, while I do believe he'd be willing to use them in self-defense, he wouldn't do it as the aggressor, and Israel has no incentive to push him that far, since his country isn't on their "attack" list.
• Xi Jinping

: He's the only non-American on the list who definitely unmistakably has them, but also the farthest from wanting to use them. To even include him in such a question is to have paid no attention to actual Chinese foreign policy in decades.[/list]

All good reasons but I guess we'll go for Xi then?

 

[The Great Zaganza]

I believe a nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan is the most likely.

 

[Brainster]

Another fun fact: The US is the only nation on earth who has actually used nuclear weapons against an enemy during wartime.

The original question was poorly phrased; the clear intention was "Who Will Be Next to Go Nuclear?"

Most countries that have nukes don't want to use them; they are perceived (and have been for decades) as the weapon of last resort. Iran, on the other hand, has clearly been pursuing the bomb with the intention of using it. So either Iran, or Israel doing a preemptive strike seems most likely to me.

ETA: Note that there is no Harry S Truman option in the poll.

 

[Roboramma]

Another fun fact: The US is the only nation on earth who has actually used nuclear weapons against an enemy during wartime.

That was just practice, it doesn't count.

Sure, the US used nuclear weapons against Japan. Do those pointing this out think that it bears on the OP question? Does it make you think that the US is, today, likely to launch a nuclear strike on its enemies?

I am somewhat concerned about the prospect of nuclear war. And there are situations where I can see the US getting involved in a series of escalations that end up with that outcome. Those are to be avoided, even at extremely high cost.

But the fact that the US used nuclear weapons in WWII doesn't really impact my risk assessment related to those outcomes in either direction. The world has changed a great deal since then, not least of which is that other nations have their own nuclear weapons.

 

[Delvo]

Do those pointing this out think that it bears on the OP question? Does it make you think that the US is, today, likely to launch a nuclear strike on its enemies?

Why let the perfectly obvious context of the subject (the current situation of the world) get in the way of a chance to lecture Americans about (something treated as being bad about) America?

 

[P.J. Denyer]

Fun fact: The US has possessed a nuclear arsenal, without using it, longer than any other nation on earth.

Anyway, it's good we've addressed these tangential points.

Or, the US is the only country to have used a nuclear weapons in war, and did so immediately on obtaining them. Still at least they got it out of their system.