What's going to happen when Putin dies?

[TragicMonkey]

You seemed so certain in your assertions that I thought you already had done the homework.

Was your hypothesis based on any evidence at all?

Assertions? It's guesswork, as is everything said by any of us. Unless any of us are part of Putin's inner circle, or a member of a rival cabal in Russian politics, and has inside knowledge? Perhaps one of us is Putin himself? If not this thread is just speculation for entertainment. I just said how I'd handle things if I were in his position. But I would never be in his position because I'm too lazy to be evil, I'd just enjoy a comfortable life with all that wealth.

I'm sure some dictators do leave an "in case I die" list behind, but I can't think of any off the top of my head where they did and people carried out their wishes.

How would we know about it if they did? I know this is shocking in the age of the internet but not everything that happens gets found out by everyone.

It's more than that. Naming a successor automatically increases the power base of that successor and they might be tempted to speed up the timetable for the transfer of power. Especially as they will then have a target on their back, as you say and ascending to the throne might be the best chance of survival.

And the closer one candidate gets to the throne, the greater the opposition from any rivals. There may not be any rivals at all: for all we know, Putin's putative successors are an amiable bunch of pals who have agreed on who takes charge and they all wish him the very best. They could be as sweet as Care Bears towards each other. We don't know, because we're a bunch of foreign civilians who don't have access to intelligence reports on any of them (unless some of you do?).

We'll only know what happens when Putin dies when Putin dies, and even then our knowledge will be at a great remove and not reliable. Does anyone here think otherwise? Did anyone posting in here think "yes, I have it all nailed down precisely, this is how it'll be?" If so they ought to be working for the State Department, or possibly the Time Lords.

 

[dudalb]

A repeat of the power struggle that took place when Stalin kicked the bucket is high on mylist of probalities.
BTW the movie 'The Death Of Stalin" is recommended. They play it for black comedy, and it is funny as hell.
Irony is the guy who produced, co wrote and directed it was the creator of the US TV series "The VEEP".

 

[Roboramma]

There may not be any rivals at all: for all we know, Putin's putative successors are an amiable bunch of pals who have agreed on who takes charge and they all wish him the very best. They could be as sweet as Care Bears towards each other. We don't know, because we're a bunch of foreign civilians who don't have access to intelligence reports on any of them (unless some of you do?).

You say this as though base rates don't exist. We may not know the details of power politics in Russia, but we do know that it's not a game being played by space aliens, or Care Bears, but instead by human beings. And we can look at the history of how humans have behaved in similar situations to understand what's most likely going on there.

 

[TragicMonkey]

You say this as though base rates don't exist. We may not know the details of power politics in Russia, but we do know that it's not a game being played by space aliens, or Care Bears, but instead by human beings. And we can look at the history of how humans have behaved in similar situations to understand what's most likely going on there.

Okay, then, do it. Post your guesses as to what will happen when Putin dies. Then go kill him. And then we can compare the results to your predictions. I don't mind at all being proven wrong!

 

[SteveAitch]

Okay, then, do it. Post your guesses as to what will happen when Putin dies. Then go kill him. And then we can compare the results to your predictions. I don't mind at all being proven wrong!

Yeah, but the difference in effects, possibly further down the timeline, of an external assasin versus an internal one, or even natural causes (if there's a difference between the last two ) could make predictions invalid. Or something.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

A repeat of the power struggle that took place when Stalin kicked the bucket is high on mylist of probalities.
BTW the movie 'The Death Of Stalin" is recommended. They play it for black comedy, and it is funny as hell.
Irony is the guy who produced, co wrote and directed it was the creator of the US TV series "The VEEP".

 

[theprestige]

Okay, then, do it. Post your guesses as to what will happen when Putin dies. Then go kill him. And then we can compare the results to your predictions. I don't mind at all being proven wrong!

I have no opinion about how you'll react to being proven wrong. I'm just trying to wrap my head about your apparently sincere commitment to such an obviously unrealistic prediction. It goes against everything history has told us about such dictatorships. It goes against everything we know of modern Russian culture and tradition. It goes against everything we know about Putin's origins and the nature of his rise to power. It goes against everything we know about the nature of the power structures that prop him up.

You might not mind being proven wrong, but you sure do seem to mind being told it's a wildly implausible outcome.

 

[TragicMonkey]

I have no opinion about how you'll react to being proven wrong. I'm just trying to wrap my head about your apparently sincere commitment to such an obviously unrealistic prediction. It goes against everything history has told us about such dictatorships. It goes against everything we know of modern Russian culture and tradition. It goes against everything we know about Putin's origins and the nature of his rise to power. It goes against everything we know about the nature of the power structures that prop him up.

You might not mind being proven wrong, but you sure do seem to mind being told it's a wildly implausible outcome.

Ah, you want me to either be upset because nobody agrees with me, or be upset at being accused of being upset. It's neither, actually, because as I said this is all just speculation for entertainment (like most everything else here) with the additional baggage of unknowability: we are none of us in a position to know what's really going on around Putin and the succession, even after the fact. It's something that'll come out in history books after our lifetimes, if then. So really not something to get invested in the accuracy of guesses.

I disagree with your "goes against everything we know" spiel. We know Putin is a vindictive, murderous bastard. I don't find it implausible he's made arrangements to have some targets killed after his death, nor do I find it implausible that at least some people would follow such instructions. Loyalty is a thing, you know? People die for causes, people kill for causes, people die for people, people kill for people. That Putin's stayed alive and in power this long suggests he's not universally despised by all who surround him. Who can guarantee that not one of them is loyal enough to do his master's bidding?