Cont: 2024 Election Thread part 2

[acbytesla]

Remember Trump gained women voters from 2016 to 2020.

I'm not sure it is true. After all even if it is, that doesn't mean less women voted for Biden. Only that more people voted in 2020. Something we all know. So let's say it is. What's the primary difference between 2016 and 2020? In 2016 a woman candidate was running for President as opposed to another old white guy.

This election, another woman is running. The Dobbs decision happened and 6 states have women's reproductive rights on the ballot.

 

[pgwenthold]

And despite being one of if not the big key "women" issue, women only dislike abortion a little less than men do, it's not a very partisan by way of gender breakdown difference. *

Age and level of education makes a massively bigger differences in your opinion about abortion then simple "Are you a man or a woman?"

My point is simply "Trump's stance on abortion is going to make women vote against him" is a risky thing to hang our hopes on.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religio...on-abortion/#views-on-abortion-by-gender-2024

I think it's more subtle than that. "Trump's previous actions on abortion is going to motivate women to vote in response." Whether it moves the needle for people who would support him in the past are going to change their mind is probably pretty minor. The issue is getting people to getting out to vote against him. That's what happened in 2020 . MAGAts whine that "there's no way 80 million people like Joe Biden," but that misses the boat. The real issue is whether there were 80 million people who hated Trump, and that answer is, yeah. And they came out and voted in larger numbers than ever before.

I think that's the question, will that happen again. Is Trump's success on abortion going to get the pro-choice women out to vote?

 

[JoeMorgue]

And sure Dobbs happened after Trump left office, but the rapes and the sexual assaults and the crud comments toward female politicians and just all the other general Trumpness still happened and, again, Trump gained a meaningful amount of women voters from 2016-2020. There's some X factor in there.

Hell Trump gained with Hispanic voters as well.

We have to accept the fact that some of the hateful things he says appeal to at least some of the people he is hateful toward.

 

[JoeMorgue]

I'm not sure it is true.

... it is. It's a mathematical fact. It's not a subjective opinion. Numbers don't lie. He gained about 5%.

Trump won a slightly larger share of women’s votes in 2020 than in 2016 (44% vs. 39%),

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

 

[angrysoba]

And despite being one of if not the big key "women" issue, women only dislike abortion a little less than men do, it's not a very partisan by way of gender breakdown difference. *

Age and level of education makes a massively bigger differences in your opinion about abortion then simple "Are you a man or a woman?"

My point is simply "Trump's stance on abortion is going to make women vote against him" is a risky thing to hang our hopes on because I'm not sure the numbers really support that.

Now obviously could it happen? Sure. Raw numbers are one thing; things like passion, one issue voters, "this time it's actually too much", etc are much less quantifiable.

https://www.pewresearch.org/religio...on-abortion/#views-on-abortion-by-gender-2024

I think a further complication is that the states where abortion is threatened are red states where women will already be anti-abortion. Maybe the only exception where the state is up for grabs on the abortion vote is Arizona. It is unlikely that women in other swing states will be voting on behalf of women in other states that they perceive as having their abortion rights curtailed, in my humble opinion.

 

[acbytesla]

And sure Dobbs happened after Trump left office, but the rapes and the sexual assaults and the crud comments toward female politicians and just all the other general Trumpness still happened and, again, Trump gained a meaningful amount of women voters from 2016-2020. There's some X factor in there.

Hell Trump gained with Hispanic voters as well.

We have to accept the fact that some of the hateful things he says appeal to at least some of the people he is hateful toward.

The Court issued its decision on June 24, 2022.

 

[acbytesla]

... it is. It's a mathematical fact. It's not a subjective opinion. Numbers don't lie. He gained about 5%.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

Actually, they lie all the time.

Pew is a very good polling company so I'm inclined to give their poll results the benefit of the doubt. But just like every polling company their results are not election results. There are probably margins of error possibilities.

But it's not worth diving into to settle that question for me. I'll assume it is correct. That might be a harbinger that Harris will garner more women's votes since she is a woman.

 

[Segnosaur]

And sure Dobbs happened after Trump left office, but the rapes and the sexual assaults and the crud comments toward female politicians and just all the other general Trumpness still happened and, again, Trump gained a meaningful amount of women voters from 2016-2020. There's some X factor in there.

I think the difference here is:

Trump's crud comments/questionable sexual history/etc. could be ignored by a woman voter because "well, it doesn't impact me personally". The sexual assaults happened to someone else, and his crude comments are just "speech that is not politically correct".

On the other hand, actually seeing your abortion rights taken away is something that has an actual meaningful result on the voter.

 

[CarbShark]

Yeah it does.

I looked, and basically it's a campaign fund raising page. I didn't find any mention of the party platform or specifics on issues (Which, as it turns out, is the latest Fox News talking point. Funny how those things seem to echo all the way over here).

 

[Segnosaur]

I think a further complication is that the states where abortion is threatened are red states where women will already be anti-abortion. Maybe the only exception where the state is up for grabs on the abortion vote is Arizona. It is unlikely that women in other swing states will be voting on behalf of women in other states that they perceive as having their abortion rights curtailed, in my humble opinion.

Maybe.

But in a swing state (where there is a relatively even split between Democrats and Republicans), women there might be thinking "if it happens in deep red states it can happen here".

Plus there is a specter of national restrictions on abortions (that Trump is desparately trying to claim he will stop, but his minions on Project 2025 will try to push through.)

 

[JoeMorgue]

If the words "Democrats don't have any platform" come out of your mouth I don't want the next words out of your mouth to be "If Democrats get elected their policies are going to destroy America and turn us all communist."

 

[JoeMorgue]

Maybe.

But in a swing state (where there is a relatively even split between Democrats and Republicans), women there might be thinking "if it happens in deep red states it can happen here".

Plus there is a specter of national restrictions on abortions (that Trump is desparately trying to claim he will stop, but his minions on Project 2025 will try to push through.)

I actually wonder how many people are actually buying the "We totally don't want to ban abortions, we just want to leave it up to the states" nonsense and actually have talked themselves into some dumb ass rationality of "Well that's fine, they can have their evil abortions in decadent California but here the heartland..."

 

[Donal]

And sure Dobbs happened after Trump left office, but the rapes and the sexual assaults and the crud comments toward female politicians and just all the other general Trumpness still happened and, again, Trump gained a meaningful amount of women voters from 2016-2020. There's some X factor in there.

white women. the gain was among white women. I've said it many times: White women are the worst.

Hell Trump gained with Hispanic voters as well.

A lot of wealthy and religious cosnervatives. Granted, the democrats were treating Latinos in general as one large monolith.

We have to accept the fact that some of the hateful things he says appeal to at least some of the people he is hateful toward.

Ya, the Republcians truly are the big tent party "We hate all the others!" Loss aversion and fear are powerful motivators.

 

[plague311]

The Harris campaign mocks Trump again:

Vice President Harris’s campaign co-chair Mitch Landrieu on Wednesday mocked former President Trump over the microphone muting issue at the upcoming presidential debate, saying his own team “wants to shut him up.”

“You know, I find it so interesting that what we’re fighting about is the fact that his own team wants to shut him up,” Landrieu said Wednesday on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe.” “I don’t know if I’ve ever heard that before in the debates and the rules of the debates.” Source

The truth hurts and I'm absolutely in love with the way the Harris campaign is hitting back at Trump. It's a joy to watch.

 

[Aridas]

Trump swears the detail of project 2025 has nothing to do with him.

As noted, that's entirely probable. He's not that kind of a details person.

He's just very, very connected to it and would rather certainly embrace all or almost all of it, seeing it in his self-interest to do so.

 

[Aridas]

This has been traditional GOP policy since 1980 when Ronald Reagan embraced Supply Side Economics. Ronald Reagan ran on the promise that lowering taxes would result in a windfall of increased tax collection. This despite the fact that it didn't in 1980 or ever for that matter. His Republican opponent in the primaries and his eventual running mate tagged it as Voodoo Economics. But 1980 changed Republican politics dramatically. By fully embracing the evangelical crazies and gaslighting.

Adding to that, the Republican Two Santa Clauses strategy explains why it's been traditional GOP policy since then.

 

[Lukraak_Sisser]

I'd also focus on what the GOP wants to instate for women in the future. The laws that can punish a woman and anyone helping her for choosing to have an abortion in a different state bear a striking resemblance to the old laws regarding slaves. And can only be implemented if ALL women are restricted in their travels.

 

[thaiboxerken]

Republicans are so desperate that they are trying to get Kamala disqualified because she's only "3/5ths" of a citizen.

 

[Safe-Keeper]

Pew is a very good polling company so I'm inclined to give their poll results the benefit of the doubt. But just like every polling company their results are not election results. There are probably margins of error possibilities.

As Beau of the Fifth Column kept pointing out, polls don't really mean anything, it's how many people actually show up to vote that decides elections.
That said, I'm still grateful for the fact that Harris is doing well (if barely) in several key swing states.

 

[dudalb]

Now Trump is in a dispute with Arlington National Cemetary over wanting to film a campaign ad there.
Disgusting. Arlington is sacred ground, if ever there was such a thing; and now Trump is trying to exploit it. I beleive the term is stolen valor.