Kamala Harris Election Campaign

Nothing much to say about this. The 2nd day ratings came in and and DNC had 20 million viewers while RNC had 14 on their 2nd day.

May not mean a lot, but then it may. Then there's RFK fishing for a job. I've said before that in an election this close according to most polling in swing states, it's a very serious issue for the Harris campaign. Margins and all that.

Seems like nobody remembers Nader pretty much tipping the 2000 election to Bush Jr.

RFK was at 14% at one time, though not on many state ballots last I heard. I think many believe it's impossible that RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump is too small to make a difference. I'm afraid it may.

Mayor Pete kinda killed it.
 
PitPat said:
Then there's RFK fishing for a job. I've said before that in an election this close according to most polling in swing states, it's a very serious issue for the Harris campaign. Margins and all that.

RFK was at 14% at one time, though not on many state ballots last I heard. I think many believe it's impossible that RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump is too small to make a difference. I'm afraid it may.

Mayor Pete kinda killed it.
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Nope. She still leads if half Kennedy’s supporters go to Trump

See https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
 
It's not feudalism, where if a lord bends his knee to another lord all the first lord's men then belong to the second lord. We don't know what percentage of RFK's prospective voters will a) not vote at all if RFK isn't running, b) vote for Trump, c) vote for Harris, or d) vote for someone else. It does seem unlikely that 100% of them will pick Trump as their second choice because there must have been reasons Trump wasn't their first choice from the start.
 
PitPat said:
Nothing much to say about this. The 2nd day ratings came in and and DNC had 20 million viewers while RNC had 14 on their 2nd day.

May not mean a lot, but then it may. Then there's RFK fishing for a job. I've said before that in an election this close according to most polling in swing states, it's a very serious issue for the Harris campaign. Margins and all that.

Seems like nobody remembers Nader pretty much tipping the 2000 election to Bush Jr.
RFK was at 14% at one time, though not on many state ballots last I heard. I think many believe it's impossible that RFK dropping out and endorsing Trump is too small to make a difference. I'm afraid it may.

Mayor Pete kinda killed it.
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Mainly because most people who understand how US politics work understand that didn't happen.

The whole "The greens threw the elections tothe repugs" thing is a distraction to divert attention from the fact that the US election systems are fundamentally broken at all levels.
 
Brainster said:
RCP's betting markets average, which has had Kamala ahead for the last two weeks, now shows Trump ahead, 50.3-48.3. Not sure why that is, given that RCP's polling average has Kamala with her highest lead so far with Harris at 48.2 and Trump at 46.7.
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Gamblers aren't entirely rational and/or haven't got the very latest information. I'm thinking that it's mostly the former.
 
Brainster said:
RCP's betting markets average, which has had Kamala ahead for the last two weeks, now shows Trump ahead, 50.3-48.3. Not sure why that is, given that RCP's polling average has Kamala with her highest lead so far with Harris at 48.2 and Trump at 46.7.
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The Don is confused. The betting markets do have the latest information; the polling average lags. What is interesting is that a candidate's convention usually gives the candidate a temporary boost. For Harris's odds to have fallen during her own party's convention could be dire news news for her.

ETA: The increased odds in favor of Trump perhaps reflect the news that Kennedy will likely soon drop out of the race, which polls show would benefit Trump.
 
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PitPat said:
Seems like nobody remembers Nader pretty much tipping the 2000 election to Bush Jr.
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No comparison.

First off, Nader was a highly respected individual with a huge following. Kennedy's just a spoiler.

Secondly, not a single vote for Nader came from Republicans, while Kennedy seems to have drawn from both sides fairly equally, small though the numbers are.
 
RFKs pull from Dems primarily comes from the lack of enthusiasm for Biden and desperate hope for Someone Else - Harris/Walz cover that quite well.

The only part that's missing is the Non-Interventionism and the Anti-Vaxx.
But they are not truly home in the Trump Camp, either.
 
a_unique_person said:
That would be why gamblers make so much money from gambling.
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Prediction markets aren't casinos, and if you knew anything about them, which you obviously don't, but have no problem opining on anyway, you would know that their contract prices are generally good estimates of the probabilities of the outcomes being bet on.
 
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Regardless the amount of people who are obsessed with predicting the results of the election instead of, ya know being active in politics for the benefit of themselves or society, is not a positive direction.
 
The Great Zaganza said:
RFKs pull from Dems primarily comes from the lack of enthusiasm for Biden and desperate hope for Someone Else - Harris/Walz cover that quite well.

The only part that's missing is the Non-Interventionism and the Anti-Vaxx.
But they are not truly home in the Trump Camp, either.
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I think many RFK Jr people will simply stay home, rather than vote for Trump.
 
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