Merged 2024 Election Thread

[jt512]

The way they work is a business takes out loans and obligations which they determine they can't pay, so they go to a bankruptcy court for the creditors to get at least some of their money back.

Trump lost so much money running casinos that they had to file bankruptcy, twice. People who invested in his brand, along with people who were hired to work for him, lost bigly.

The claim I was disputing was that, since many of Trump's corporations have declared bankruptcy, Trump must no longer be a billionaire. But that conclusion doesn't follow from the premiss because corporate bankruptcy does not ordinarily affect the shareholder's assets (other than one's shares in the corporation).

 

[jt512]

Nate Silver is predicting the Presidential election outcome 4+ months out based on polls?

Nate's model is a weighted average of data from polls and economic fundamentals. The closer the election gets, the greater the weight is on the polling data.

 

[jt512]

Nate Silver, like all other political analysts, is an attention whore who doesn't know **** from shinola.

The innumeracy of supposed scientific skeptics never ceases to amaze me.

 

[jt512]

Actually, if Trump gets elected to the most powerful position in the world, that means that the position title will need to get put in sarcastic quotes.

Well, the last time Trump got elected the title was effectively transferred to Angela Merkel.

 

[Pixel42]

The claim I was disputing was that, since many of Trump's corporations have declared bankruptcy, Trump must no longer be a billionaire.

You misunderstood me. What I find hard to believe is that someone who was such a terrible businessman that he failed to make a profit running a casino - twice - has ever been a billionaire, no matter how generous his father was in funding him and bailing him out when he screwed up.

 

[Samson]

You misunderstood me. What I find hard to believe is that someone who was such a terrible businessman that he failed to make a profit running a casino - twice - has ever been a billionaire, no matter how generous his father was in funding him and bailing him out when he screwed up.

He gets a reasonable rating as self made.
Mainly because he is a TV star.
He is an entertainer, while Newsom is a self proclaimed serial philanderer and child abuser.
Nothing wrong with that until casting aspersions on another serial philanderer and child protector.
The race is sicker than vomit.
I hope Trump wins for the sake of the Free world despite all.

 

[GlennB]

The little money for Biden at $5 appears to have dried up, with his odds staying firm at $4-50 and Trump at $1-57.

Considering it's a two-horse race and Biden is the incumbent, it's absolutely unheard-of to be at those odds 4 months out from the election.

If those of you who are so sure he's going to win aren't gobbling up those odds, tell me why. It looks like a good way to pay off your mortgage, or at least fund a nice cruise. The bookies are seeing the race like Secretariat v a Budweiser Clydesdale.

This is a very good point.

 

[dirtywick]

He gets a reasonable rating as self made.
Mainly because he is a TV star.
He is an entertainer, while Newsom is a self proclaimed serial philanderer and child abuser.
Nothing wrong with that until casting aspersions on another serial philanderer and child protector.
The race is sicker than vomit.
I hope Trump wins for the sake of the Free world despite all.

so you're hoping for the serial philanderer and child abuser

 

[Samson]

so you're hoping for the serial philanderer and child abuser

Trump is not a child abuser, Newsom is.
I suspect Michelle Obama faces off. She is part of the collapse of western culture, but not a sordid pig like Newsom.

 

[dirtywick]

the pageant stuff doesn’t count?

 

[kookbreaker]

the pageant stuff doesn’t count?

Of course not. Only his projection does.

 

[Aridas]

Of course not. Only his projection does.

Just like the part where Trump policy was to rip babies from their mother's arms, to steal large numbers of children from their families and then lose them in the system as if they were less valuable than a bag, to slash funding to numerous programs that help fulfill the basic needs of children... Yeah, plenty more can be said, but if President Trump’s War on Children doesn't make him a child abuser, it's by engaging in semantics to try to hand wave away the harm he's done and sought to do to children.

Trump acted to harm children in numerous ways that are not at all controversial in how harmful they are. Given Samson, his case that Newsom is a child abuser almost certainly rests on Newsom not supporting the politically motivated persecution of trans people, much as he might want to try to spin it to sound nicer. That's obviously much more controversial, much as calling that controversial quite reminds me of the "controversy" surrounding Intelligent Design as creationists tried to ram it into science classes as if it were science.

Trump being a self made man is somewhat laughable, regardless, on deeper examination. Even the TV bit involved quite a lot of Reality TV shenanigans to make Trump look overwhelmingly better.

 

[Delvo]

If those of you who are so sure he's going to win...

I don't think I've seen anybody say or even imply that for a while.

...aren't gobbling up those odds, tell me why.

Because gamblers live in Gambler World, where life is a series of things to gamble on so of course tracking down gambling odds on whatever they can find to gamble on and coming up with new things to track down the odds for & gamble on is obviously the natural thing to be perpetually doing... and the rest of the world doesn't. Nobody else cares or pays any attention to or cares to listen to gamblers babbling about that weird self-destructive way of thinking and looking at life, and, most especially, nobody else treats gamblers as a source of higher wisdom & foresight for the non-gamblers to seek out and be enlightened by, on the subjects they gamble on or anything else.

At best, you're trying to change the subject from what it actually is to your hobby instead, and demanding an explanation from other people for not satisfying your demand that we share your hobby. At worst, you're trying to change the subject from what it actually is to your addiction instead, and demanding an explanation from other people for not satisfying your demand that we share your addiction.

(Also, some would-be gamblers just literally don't have the money to spare anyway.)

It looks like a good way to pay off your mortgage, or at least fund a nice cruise.

Classic gambler math.

Get help.

 

[wasapi]

Trump is not a child abuser, Newsom is.
I suspect Michelle Obama faces off. She is part of the collapse of western culture, but not a sordid pig like Newsom.

You could not be more ignorant. Your stupidly and lies are beyond the pale.

 

[Craig4]

A grammatically challenged cope.

Where are the Americans claiming that **** is a billionaire? I only hear that from Trump supporters and we all know what their word is worth.

 

[Craig4]

Trump is not a child abuser, Newsom is.
I suspect Michelle Obama faces off. She is part of the collapse of western culture, but not a sordid pig like Newsom.

https://dir.md/www.snopes.com/fact-check/ivanka-trump-lap-sitting/

Here's the sick rapist **** getting a lap dance from his own daughter. ******* rapist perv.

 

[Stacyhs]

Don't forget that everyone who saw Biden showing his age in that debate also saw

​a) Biden answering the questions put to him honestly

​and

b) Trump ignoring most of the questions put to him in favour of trotting out the same old memorised lies

Yep. It's not hard to trot out rhetoric you've been repeating for years...especially when most of it is just lies (30+) you've made up.

 

[The Atheist]

I don't think I've seen anybody say or even imply that for a while.

Open your eyes, mate.

The people who are cheering him on and excusing his awful performance in this very thread clearly want him to stay because they think he's going to win.

Because gamblers live in Gambler World...

Bookies don't, and it's the bookies are setting the odds.

I'm not sure what caused the rest of your little rant because my point was to [our derision on Biden supporters for not being prepared to put their money where their mouths are. If someone is sure he's going to win, it's free money.

 

[The Atheist]

And it looks very much like the powers of the Democratic Party have decided there's no question of Biden being replaced, so I look forward to your next Trump presidency:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world-news/...at-party-after-joe-bidens-presidential-debate

 

[Stacyhs]

Debate winners are decided by popular vote, and when a majority of people say Trump won, that means he won:

https://abcnews.go.com/538/won-biden-trump-presidential-debate/story?id=111529058

https://www.aa.com.tr/en/americas/trump-declared-debate-winner-by-67-of-viewers-in-cnn-poll/3260505

And Trump didn't just win, he won 2:1.

Ah, yes. The "popular vote". Kind of like Hillary "won" the 2016 election, right?


No one won that debate. Arguing that ignoring several of the debate questions, repeating 30+ lies, and engaging in childish blather is somehow 'winning' is unbelievable.

How someone 'wins' a debate is by changing voters minds to vote for them. That didn't happen. What else your ABC link said:

Of course, turning in the best performance in a debate only matters if it translates into votes — so we also asked poll respondents (both those who watched the debate and those who didn’t) which candidates they were considering voting for after the debate. And if there was any silver lining from the debate for Biden, this was it: The face-off doesn’t seem to have caused many people to reconsider their vote. That said, Biden did lose a small share of potential voters: Post-debate, 46.7 percent of likely voters said they were considering voting for him, which was 1.6 percentage points lower than before the debate. (Note that this was not a straight horse-race poll; respondents could say they were considering voting for multiple candidates.)

Trump’s support, meanwhile, barely budged, perhaps a reflection of the fact that, while Biden performed poorly on Thursday night, voters weren’t especially impressed with Trump’s performance either. The share of likely voters who said they were considering voting for Trump after the debate climbed from 43.5 percent to just 43.9 percent.

And

Roughly 8 in 10 registered voters who watched the debate (81%) say it had no effect on their choice for president, according to a CNN poll of debate watchers conducted by SSRS. Another 14% said that it made them reconsider but didn’t change their mind, while 5% said it changed their minds about whom to vote for. Roughly equal shares of Joe Biden and Donald Trump supporters said the debate had changed their mind.
The poll’s results reflect opinions of the debate only among those voters who tuned in and aren’t representative of the views of the full voting public – in their demographics, their political preferences or the level of attention they pay to politics. Debate watchers in the poll were 5 points likelier to be Republican-aligned than Democratic-aligned, making for an audience that was slightly more GOP-leaning than all registered voters nationally.

Like I said, no one won that debate. But you just carry on.