P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
Hedging his bets, even if he wins being an MP won't stop him running off to the US to set up shop in Trumps colon if Trump isn't imprisoned or entirely discredited.
General UK politics VII -Return of the Starmer
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Hedging his bets, even if he wins being an MP won't stop him running off to the US to set up shop in Trumps colon if Trump isn't imprisoned or entirely discredited.
MarkCorrigan
Героям слава!
Someone in Clacton threw a pint over Farage.
Eta: Someone else threw a banana milkshake too.
Eta: Someone else threw a banana milkshake too.
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Mojo
Mostly harmless
Someone in Clacton threw a pint over Farage today.
I'd rather it a tragic waste of a pint - unless it was bought at 'Spoons.
My prediction is that a combination on infighting, defections and candidates running as independents combined with the Conservatives massively outperforming polling (due to lifetime Tories holding their noses and voting for their default party) will result in a tiny Labour majority.
The resulting cat-herding will prevent Starmer actually achieving very much as Prime Minister.
Mojo
Mostly harmless
You need a Ladbrokes account then, pdq. They're offering odds by constituency, so find 10 where Labour are marginal favourites - 4-5,4-6 kind of thing - and bet on any clear second favourite. Any 8,9 and all 10 from 10 is 56 bets at, say, 5p per bet won't break the bank but those odds really skyrocket in big multiple bets.
Hell, I'll do it myself in case you're right
eta: Bugger, they're not allowing multiple bets, it seems, Dang
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Wudang
BOFH
Maybe he’s seen how cheap booze is in Parliament bars.
MarkCorrigan
Героям слава!
I know your whole thing is being massively negative but why are basically all the polls and experts showing that it's going to be a big win for Labour?
Because right now they're miles ahead in the opinion polls but.....
There are still four weeks for the right wing press to influence the electorate.
The left wing of the Labour Party will do their level best to scupper the party
There's a large inbuilt advantage for the Tories, Labour need a significant lead in the popular vote to get an electoral majority
And....
When faced with casting a ballot rather than expressing an opinion, people will find themselves voting Conservative despite what they told the opinion pollsters.
3point14
Pi
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I hope you're not right.
Aren't the polls normally fairly accurate? If I were paying for the polling and it turns out as you describe, I'd want my money back.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
Yes, they do account for the difference between polling responses and actual voting. Xwitters always full of the "Well, they never asked me" brigade, but polling is pretty sophisticated these days and the actual results are normally within the margin of error. The "surprises' tend to either be down to not understanding margin of error (Brexit) or the difference between FPTT or electoral college voting and a straight popular vote.
There's a rumour/conspiracy theory that she's connected to the Reform Party; the woman in the photos who threw the milkshake does look similar to Emily Hewertson, who has appeared on TV speaking in favour of Brexit and in photos with Farage, but she has denied it on X.
It would be incredibly daft if it was her, since making the connection would be too easy.
Mojo
Mostly harmless
Matthew Best
Penultimate Amazing
God I hope not. I will have to delete my social media posts hailing her as my new heroine.
A nice final top up for his pension if he makes to it being a MP. It will go along side his MEP pension.
That'll teach me to try and think with numbers after a night-shift. To sum it up, my prediction is this:
Labour 430'ish
Con & Lib Dem 50'ish each
SNP 20-30
That should add up to about 550 seats. The Greens, various Northern Ireland parties, and Reform Ltd. are probably going to win some seats as well.
I see both Survation and Electoral Calculus are predicting a massive Labour landslide of 485 seats.
Labour 430'ish
Con & Lib Dem 50'ish each
SNP 20-30
That should add up to about 550 seats. The Greens, various Northern Ireland parties, and Reform Ltd. are probably going to win some seats as well.
I see both Survation and Electoral Calculus are predicting a massive Labour landslide of 485 seats.
Watched the “debate”.
The charisma flooding out the TV screen has invigorated me, so much that I may make a cup of tea.
The charisma flooding out the TV screen has invigorated me, so much that I may make a cup of tea.
Matthew Best
Penultimate Amazing
Fortunately that rumour turned out not to be true. The woman who did it is this delightful lady:
https://www.instagram.com/vic.tb/
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