World War III: No Nukes Edition

[SpitfireIX]

So, let's suppose that, somehow, all nuclear weapons disappear or are disabled today. It doesn't matter how. The US deploys a secret anti-nuke field that accidentally zaps all of NATO's nukes along with everyone else's, alien space bats steal all the nukes, Superman tosses them all into space, etc. In any case, no more nukes.

Then let's also suppose that, tomorrow, World War III breaks out (no great stretch of the imagination, sadly). What are the sides? Who jumps in? Who stays out? How does it end?

I'll start things off with how I see the alliances developing initially. Note that alliance names are primarily for convenience; I'm not implying that every country or non-state actor that would ally with Russia and China is necessarily evil, or vice versa; after all, Finland fought alongside Germany for much of World War II.

Allies:

NATO, except Hungary, Turkey, and Slovakia stay neutral, though NATO-leaning, at least initially
Ukraine (obviously)
Georgia
Moldova
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Jordan
Iraq
Kuwait
Japan
South Korea
Australia
New Zealand
Taiwan
The Philippines


Axis (of Evil):

China
Russia
Iran
North Korea
Belarus
Syria
Various non-state actors in the Middle East, including Hamas, the Houthis, etc.


Major Neutrals (to start):

India
Pakistan
Brazil
Argentina

I'm sure I'm forgetting some, and people may disagree. For example, some might think that India might seize the opportunity to settle accounts with China, but I'm not convinced they'd consider that worthwhile, especially with Pakistan in a position to jump in. I also don't think that Putin would be in a position to coerce any CSTO states besides Belarus to join the war, especially if Turkey stays neutral initially.

 

[The Great Zaganza]

What makes you think China and Russia would be allies?

More likely is that China would take a huge bite out of the Russian Federation given China's superiority in the absence of deterrent.
Or it would help North Korea to do the same.

Way more reward for way less risk than going after South Korea, which would definitely have US support.

 

[theprestige]

What makes you think China and Russia would be allies?

More likely is that China would take a huge bite out of the Russian Federation given China's superiority in the absence of deterrent.
Or it would help North Korea to do the same.

Way more reward for way less risk than going after South Korea, which would definitely have US support.

Global warming unlocks natural resources in Siberia. China makes a move on territory Russia obviously cannot defend, and that nobody else in the world is going to fight over.

Subsequently, China moves to extend its hegemony to the nations bordering the South China sea, and gets an epic conventional beatdown from a coalition of those nations + the US.

Russia makes some anemic moves to break out from behind the Lakes NATO that currently cut off its free access to the seven seas via Europe. Russia gets an epic conventional beatdown by NATO and friends.

Iran tries to extend its hegemony over the Middle East, and gets an epic conventional beatdown from a US-led coalition of regional stakeholders.

There's some flareups in central and south America, but they don't amount to much. There's some flareups in sub-Saharan Africa, but this is indistinguishable from the status quo, and nobody pays much attention to them.

Aftermath: China and Russia are failed states, squabbling over resources in the ass-end of central Asia, completely at the mercy of a buyer's market for those resources. Cheap manufacturing continues its shift from China to southeast Asia, South America, and Africa. China's designs on a strategic econo-diplomatic foothold in Africa are pretty much dead.

The overall socio-economic effects of such a conflict are impossible for me to fully imagine or account for. At a guess, I'd say that most of the places that aren't already **** holes will come through it okay. Some of the places that are **** holes will get better: China's loss is going to be someone's gain. The collapse of Russia's regional power will free some of its neighbors up to seek economic and cultural ties to the west.

That's about it, and none of it makes any sense, because in reality: Nukes.

---

The one thing that seems slightly plausible to me is China making a move on Russian territory, because (a) nobody else will bother trying to stop them, and (b) they're willing to face-tank a few nukes in the service of lebensraum and natural resources.

 

[LSSBB]

Global warming unlocks natural resources in Siberia. China makes a move on territory Russia obviously cannot defend, and that nobody else in the world is going to fight over.

Subsequently, China moves to extend its hegemony to the nations bordering the South China sea, and gets an epic conventional beatdown from a coalition of those nations + the US.

Russia makes some anemic moves to break out from behind the Lakes NATO that currently cut off its free access to the seven seas via Europe. Russia gets an epic conventional beatdown by NATO and friends.

Iran tries to extend its hegemony over the Middle East, and gets an epic conventional beatdown from a US-led coalition of regional stakeholders.

There's some flareups in central and south America, but they don't amount to much. There's some flareups in sub-Saharan Africa, but this is indistinguishable from the status quo, and nobody pays much attention to them.

Aftermath: China and Russia are failed states, squabbling over resources in the ass-end of central Asia, completely at the mercy of a buyer's market for those resources. Cheap manufacturing continues its shift from China to southeast Asia, South America, and Africa. China's designs on a strategic econo-diplomatic foothold in Africa are pretty much dead.

The overall socio-economic effects of such a conflict are impossible for me to fully imagine or account for. At a guess, I'd say that most of the places that aren't already **** holes will come through it okay. Some of the places that are **** holes will get better: China's loss is going to be someone's gain. The collapse of Russia's regional power will free some of its neighbors up to seek economic and cultural ties to the west.

That's about it, and none of it makes any sense, because in reality: Nukes.

---

The one thing that seems slightly plausible to me is China making a move on Russian territory, because (a) nobody else will bother trying to stop them, and (b) they're willing to face-tank a few nukes in the service of lebensraum and natural resources.

China would be too busy going after the Pacific. Like they already are. No two front war.

 

[theprestige]

China would be too busy going after the Pacific. Like they already are. No two front war.

Absent a major collapse of the Pax Americana Navalis, and the failure of the other major regional powers to fill the gap, China will struggle just to go after the South China Sea and the countries that border it. There is no plausible scenario where China is able to go after the Pacific in our lifetimes.

 

[lobosrul5]

China would be too busy going after the Pacific. Like they already are. No two front war.

In a no-nuke scenario though... would they? Why not take Russia's far east territories? Right now they won't, cause Vlad will likely nuke Beijing. China doesn't have that worry if they attack other Pacific Rim nations since they have no nukes, either way. Unless the USA decides to sling them around that is (unlikely).

This is sorta like Japan just before WW2 if they had curb stomped the USSR at the battle of Khalkhin Gol. Why attack the west if Russia is very weak?

 

[LSSBB]

Absent a major collapse of the Pax Americana Navalis, and the failure of the other major regional powers to fill the gap, China will struggle just to go after the South China Sea and the countries that border it. There is no plausible scenario where China is able to go after the Pacific in our lifetimes.

Not even island hopping?

 

[theprestige]

Not even island hopping?

Not even island hopping. There is not a single island airfield or supply base China could establish anywhere in Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, or the Pacific Ocean, that the US couldn't hit with stealth bombers flying nonstop round trip missions from the continental US.

And that's even assuming they could fight their way through the US and Japanese navies to establish such bases to begin with.

What exactly did you imagine island-hopping was?

 

[SpitfireIX]

What makes you think China and Russia would be allies?

More likely is that China would take a huge bite out of the Russian Federation given China's superiority in the absence of deterrent.
Or it would help North Korea to do the same.

Way more reward for way less risk than going after South Korea, which would definitely have US support.

I think they'd try to go after Taiwan and the other stuff they want in the Pacific first, while the US is preoccupied, and go after Russia later.

 

[theprestige]

I think they'd try to go after Taiwan and the other stuff they want in the Pacific first, while the US is preoccupied, and go after Russia later.

While the US is preoccupied with what? The entire US military-industrial establishment is premised on fighting wars in both hemispheres at the same time.

Then factor in that the war in Europe would be largely a land war, hardly taxing American naval power. Meanwhile the war in the SCS would be largely a naval war, hardly taxing American land power.

ETA: The whole point of China going after Siberia instead of Taiwan in this scenario is that it gets to use its strength in numbers, against a weak enemy with no real allies to speak of, without having to master large-scale military sealift, without having to go up against the literally the greatest naval power of all time.

 

[LSSBB]

Not even island hopping. There is not a single island airfield or supply base China could establish anywhere in Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, or the Pacific Ocean, that the US couldn't hit with stealth bombers flying nonstop round trip missions from the continental US.

And that's even assuming they could fight their way through the US and Japanese navies to establish such bases to begin with.

What exactly did you imagine island-hopping was?

Like Woody Island? In a war, China can fight. The trick is to build itself up militarily to a point where it can defend its forward assets, then have at it. That means hook or crook transactions and multiple movement across theater, before commencing engagement. Then there is no unified front for theU.S.

 

[arthwollipot]

What makes you think China and Russia would be allies?

They might not be declared allies, but both would be the enemy of the United States.

 

[Chanakya]

A no-nuke situation might be just about possible, but only in a world that's somehow arrived at a great deal more of maturity and wisdom than right now. So, no WW in that scenario.

And if space aliens neuter our nukes for us, then surely these new daddies and mommies, or teachers and monitors, would be key adjudicators in a serious enough brawl among us unruly kids?

 

[PitPat]

You name it, almost every country has bee-ant at war,.

Excelot the Swiss, not sure what they have goin on there when they're basically in the middle of it. Best to just stay out of it and launder the confiscated art goods.

 

[SpitfireIX]

While the US is preoccupied with what? The entire US military-industrial establishment is premised on fighting wars in both hemispheres at the same time.

That was the plan, but you'll find that American forces would be stretched somewhat thin in such a scenario, due to years of budget cuts and other problems.

Then factor in that the war in Europe would be largely a land war, hardly taxing American naval power.

Absolutely false. Most American supplies and reinforcements would have to go to Europe by sea, and the Russians would use their large fleet of submarines and what's left of their surface forces to attempt to interfere with this. Additionally, US naval assets would be important in aiding our allies in the Middle East against Iran.

Meanwhile the war in the SCS would be largely a naval war, hardly taxing American land power.

In terms of the US Army, that's likely true, but the USMC would undoubtedly be heavily involved, and any Marine assets committed to the SCS would not be available for use in the Baltic, the Med, or the Middle East.

ETA: The whole point of China going after Siberia instead of Taiwan in this scenario is that it gets to use its strength in numbers, against a weak enemy with no real allies to speak of, without having to master large-scale military sealift, without having to go up against the literally the greatest naval power of all time.

This is all true, but it doesn't take into account Xi's desire to be the man who brought the "rogue province" of Taiwan back into the fold, and turned China into a true superpower.

 

[SpitfireIX]

A no-nuke situation might be just about possible, but only in a world that's somehow arrived at a great deal more of maturity and wisdom than right now. So, no WW in that scenario.

And if space aliens neuter our nukes for us, then surely these new daddies and mommies, or teachers and monitors, would be key adjudicators in a serious enough brawl among us unruly kids?

I didn't mention "Space aliens take away all our nukes, and then force us all to play nice" as a potential scenario.

 

[dudalb]

I didn't mention "Space aliens take away all our nukes, and then force us all to play nice" as a potential scenario.

Call it "The Day The Earth Stood Still" scenario.