Most Over-Valued Company is History

dudalb said:
I think Trump would have to give up running Truth SOcial if he were elected. he can still own it, but he cannot run it.
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I don't think he gave up control of anything while he was President, even though tradition (although not law) said he should.
 
dann said:
Half?!

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All gains since the merger went through. The stock is still selling at about $37 a share, which is about half of its highest closing price (74.66 on 3/28/24). Trump's shares (78.75 million) are still (on paper) worth a little under $3 billlion. Not that he'll ever get anything like that.
 
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Honest question. Regardless of politics, what value would a company with 50 some odd million in expenditure and 4 million in revenue after being around for years actually be?
 
gabeygoat said:
Honest question. Regardless of politics, what value would a company with 50 some odd million in expenditure and 4 million in revenue after being around for years actually be?
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It depends, but unless it has some extraordinary assets (a unique and valuable product, intellectual property or something similarly valuable), the value would be minimal.

In the case of Truth Social, the "assets" are the Trump brand and the fact that it is President Trump's primary (sole?) social media platform. There may also be considerable value in the millions of devoted MAGA supporters if some way can be made to monetize that for the benefit of the shareholders (as opposed to the sole benefit of President Trump).
 
theprestige said:
Whatever people are willing to pay for it. That's literally how value is determined.
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sure, if you believe in the magic of Homo Economicus and a weird god-like hand of the market. But there's also the world where value is added to society. Not just what irrational actors are willing to pay for garbage. Anyway, I'm asking what a truly rational investor would value such a stock at, sans political emotion.
 
The Don said:
It depends, but unless it has some extraordinary assets (a unique and valuable product, intellectual property or something similarly valuable), the value would be minimal.

In the case of Truth Social, the "assets" are the Trump brand and the fact that it is President Trump's primary (sole?) social media platform. There may also be considerable value in the millions of devoted MAGA supporters if some way can be made to monetize that for the benefit of the shareholders (as opposed to the sole benefit of President Trump).
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this makes the most sense to me. still curious what numerical value might be, simply based on expenditures and revenues and product potential.
 
gabeygoat said:
sure, if you believe in the magic of Homo Economicus and a weird god-like hand of the market. But there's also the world where value is added to society. Not just what irrational actors are willing to pay for garbage. Anyway, I'm asking what a truly rational investor would value such a stock at, sans political emotion.
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Hard to say. I think given the extremely high rate being paid to borrow shares for shortselling plus the fact that Trump supporters might keep it afloat for years might make it very profitable to hold in the medium term. Am I gonna risk it? No. But a rational case could be be made.
 
gabeygoat said:
this makes the most sense to me. still curious what numerical value might be, simply based on expenditures and revenues and product potential.
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It's impossible to put an accurate, objective, number on it because the product potential is very difficult to determine.

For example, a pharma start up company could have tiny (or even zero) revenues and significant expenditures for years because they are developing and trialling new treatments. The potential could be enormous, or the drugs could fail their trials and be essentially worthless. Until the results of the trials are known, there will speculative value to the drugs and the related intellectual property. Indeed there could still be value even if the trials are unsuccessful because another company could make use of that intellectual property.

If Truth Social's value lies in its access to the Trump brand, being the main (sole ?) channel for President Trump's social media output and its access to the MAGA base then there may be considerable value there. It may depend on working out how to exploit the MAGA base for your own benefit (an uncertain prospect) and how to monetise President Trump's social media output (something which is possibly undermined by his public outbursts where you get access to his statements for free).

Another thing which muddys the water is the extent to which becoming President again could boost revenues for Trump Media. A quid pro quo for US support for your country could be tens of millions of dollars of advertising revenue for Trump Media.

IMO Trump Media is overvalued by several orders of magnitude but I'd say the same about Bitcoin :o. If Trump becomes President again and Trump Media suddenly has tens of billions of dollars of US government and foreign government revenue as a result then the current valuation could look very low indeed.
 
The Titanic didn't sink this fast; Trump media shares drop another 16% on the news that they plan to issue millions more deck chairs, errr, shares.
 
jeremyp said:
Surely the most overvalued company would be one that was built on a fraud, and therefore worth nothing - like Theranos?
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Fair call, but Trump Social is built on a fraud too, so I'll go with dead heat.
 
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