How do we know a pandemic's over?

To be clear though, what I meant was there is reason to believe that non-n95 masks have little benefit and that if the n95 is not properly fitted, it's effectiveness will be compromised.


I find it strange that people say this as often as they do. Most things don't work if they're not properly fitted, and they come in all shapes and sizes, like seatbelts, safety helmets or condoms. I hardly ever hear people point out that none of those things should be worn under the nose.

And then there are nitwits like this guy, who looks like the mediocre version of Sam Elliott:
'I just told them I didn’t feel comfortable about sitting next to somebody that had to (!) wear a mask, and I’m off the plane,' Smith said in a video posted on Instagram Saturday.
'Yellowstone' star Forrie J. Smith says he was 'kicked off' flight for refusing to sit next to masked passenger (NBC News, March 25, 2024)


I hope they've put him on the list.
 
I'm trying to look at the long-term, and it seems to me the damage done by the lockdowns will far outweigh the number of people who would otherwise have been killed. And yes, I'm probably one of those.

Without lockdowns, the death total would be maybe 50 million.

In saving those people, what we've done is remove any chance of a concerted effort to stop the next pandemic, which could be the really deadly one that might cause a billion deaths. People have lost faith in politicians' ability to manage pandemics, be it due to blatant corruption in UK, Fauci flip-flops in USA, or insanely long lockdowns for no purpose in NZ in late 2021, long after the vast majority of people had been vaccinated.

Science seems to regard it as a given that there will be another pandemic, and if it's one with a death rate 5, 10, or even 20 times higher than Covid, we're in deep ****. (...)


Thanks for squarely answering my somewhat …ehm, direct question! …But I still don’t follow follow the reasoning in your answer, the long-term thing.

My starting point is that human life, particular large numbers of human lives, takes precedence over anything and everything else. So that, if in saving large numbers of human lives, the economy takes a hit, well then so be it; because the economy’s there to serve us, we’re not instruments to prop up the economy!

(Sure, your argument might make sense in the very poorest countries, in Africa maybe, where many people lead a barely-subsistent existence, so that a knock to the economy might mean real deaths. So that, going all out to save the old and the infim, in those specific countries, might effectively mean having babies and children and people generally dying eventually. So that there what you say might make sense. …But in first world countries, that’s not an issue. The economy can stand a hit, it has stood a hit, without droves of people dropping down dead from malnutrition and disease. So, in regular first-world countries, in countries that are not completely subsistence level, all of these measures to save lives were good and right, and exactly what was called for.)

Following from that starting point, your argument does not make sense. I mean, agreed about the corruption and mismanagement and all of that, and if you’re asking for the likes of Trump, as well as others indulging in gross mismanagement and outright corruption, to be locked away, then sure, by all means. But the principle of the thing itself, and by and large what was done despite all of this, was sound; and, as you admit, it did save large numbers of lives! So that’s how it should be!

So if some of the “public” completely disagrees with what was done, then that is either irrational of them; or else it is psychotic of them (in as much as they value their own relatively trivial creature comforts, and temporary discomfort and inconvenience and economic hit and all of that, more than the actual lives and deaths of large numbers of their older and/or less healthy fellow humans, fellow countrymen. That’s, I mean, s-i-c-k sick; and if someone follows that sick reasoning to downplay future pandemics, …well, I mean, I don't think we can rightly argue that therefore we should have pandered to them when Covid was raging on! It simply makes no sense at all, no matter how you slice it. (And let me emphasize, I understand now from what you’ve said to me, that you’re not arguing this yourself, but only going by what “those people” say, and how think “those people” will react next time.)

Effort should be focused on educating the irrational and the ignorant. Effort should be focused on making clear to the psychotic that their complete lack of empathy is not acceptable. No effort should be made to pander to their irrationality, and their psychopathy and lack of empathy. …Because, I mean, wtf, how does that even make sense?! …And where do you stop? If we pander to the weirdos and, to appease their ignorance and irrationality and lack of empathy, had we allowed for X extra deaths this time that might have been prevented; well then, if and when there’s a next time, and the numbers then are maybe 2X or even 5X, well what has changed, might they not take the same irrational and/or empathy-less approach to that other, higher number as well? …And again, how do you even predict these number will be beforehand for something completely new?!

…Sorry, your argument, your underlying position, simply does not make sense to me!
 
Here in San Diego C19 continues to decline. Cases, hospitalizations, and deaths declining since Jan. and now is about 90% lower.

https://www.sandiegocounty.gov/cont...ology/dc/respiratoryviruses/surveillance.html

Since last July, there has been one flu death and no C19 deaths for the young (0-17). For all people under 50 there have been the same number of Flu and C19 deaths, 8 each. However, there have been about 8x more deaths from C19 (305) than Flu (45) for people 50+.
 
However, there have been about 8x more deaths from C19 (305) than Flu (45) for people 50+.

Do we know the vaccine status of the oldies?

If San Diego is anything like NZ, older people are getting 'flu vaccines and not covid vaccines. I'm not sure why.
 
Do we know the vaccine status of the oldies?

If San Diego is anything like NZ, older people are getting 'flu vaccines and not covid vaccines. I'm not sure why.

True here to. For those over 65, 38% of people are up to date with C19 vax and 60% are up to date with Flu vax. This year's flu totals were very mild with about half the average deaths.

We use a fiscal year reporting period. July 1 to June 30. C19 has been declining consistently over the last 3 years. 2020-2021 deaths were 3400 and have been declining about 60% yearly since. On track to be about 350 by June 30.

The higher rates of C19 may well be due to catch up as well. The first several years of Covid-19 saw infection rates among the old at about 1/3 the rate of younger people. They were being more cautious. So less prior infection immunity. C19 vax rates among the young is tiny at under 20% but most all have had C19.

JN.1.X has taken over at over 90% for a few months and yet consistently declining in cases. Nothing else in sight and it's well on its way out with positivity rate around 2% which is really low.
 
Last edited:
Do we know the vaccine status of the oldies?

If San Diego is anything like NZ, older people are getting 'flu vaccines and not covid vaccines. I'm not sure why.

Because there's been -

(a) a concerted effort by health authorities to minimise the seriousness of SARS-CoV-2
(b) a concerted effort by anti-vaxxers to demonise SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

(a) nudges us to be not too concerned with vaccine updates, since it's a mild cold now, and it's not really recommended strongly any more for most ...
but ...
people seem to be "unexpectedly" dropping like flies (and excess mortality confirms it) ... so since it can't be "mild" covid ... it might just be (b)!

So best not to get vaccinated, eh?



https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/our-...tics/covid-vaccine-data/#vaccinations-by-week
 
(b) a concerted effort by anti-vaxxers to demonise SARS-CoV-2 vaccines


Some good news: The CDC just killed another right-wing Covid vaccine conspiracy theory (MSNBC on MSN, April 12, 2024)

COVID vaccines not linked to cardiac death in young people: CDC study (TheHill, April 11, 2024)

Summary
What is already known about this topic?
In April 2021, cases of myocarditis after COVID-19 vaccination, particularly among young male vaccine recipients, were reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System.

What is added by this report?
To determine risk for sudden cardiac death among adolescents and young adults after COVID-19 vaccination, investigators examined June 2021–December 2022 Oregon death certificate data for decedents aged 16–30 years. Of 40 deaths that occurred among persons who had received an mRNA COVID-19 vaccine dose, three occurred ≤100 days after vaccination. Among these, two occurred in persons with underlying illness, and one decedent had an undetermined cause of death.

What are the implications for public health practice?
The data do not support an association of COVID-19 vaccination with sudden cardiac death among previously healthy young persons. COVID-19 vaccination is recommended for all persons aged ≥6 months to prevent COVID-19 and complications, including death.
Assessment of Risk for Sudden Cardiac Death Among Adolescents and Young Adults After Receipt of COVID-19 Vaccine — Oregon, June 2021–December 2022 (CDC, April 11, 2024)
 
Because there's been -

(a) a concerted effort by health authorities to minimise the seriousness of SARS-CoV-2

Save your ignorance - that has not been the case in NZ. Health authorities and experts here have been stressing the need for vaccination.\

(b) a concerted effort by anti-vaxxers to demonise SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

Doesn't apply to NZ either. They're a very small minority and generally considered to be nutcases that nobody but the true morons listen to.

people seem to be "unexpectedly" dropping like flies (and excess mortality confirms it) ... so since it can't be "mild" covid ... it might just be (b)!

And you're still making that idiotic comment without any evidence. Deaths in NZ from covid have been minimal, and we record them all. You're parroting nonsense that it's killing droves of people. You have yet to provide anything more than wild speculation.

You keep crying about "minimisers" - whoever they might be - let me state yet again that panic merchants posting clear untruths about the harm of covid are as dangerous as antivaxers because you overstate the dangers like the boy who cried wolf.

Keep at it...
 
I think it's time to take another look at this two-year-old prediction again:
I posted this in the science thread yesterday.
... 'Flu deaths here are ~500 a year, and omicron's going to be much lower than that. ...

Much lower than 500. It didn't come true the first year, so how about this year?
Nope, still not: Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths.
Mar 30, 2024: 3,916 - April 1, 2023: 2,662 = 1,294

So still a couple of times more C19 deaths than 500, and it was supposed be much lower than 500.
And 2024 alone, so far:
Mar 30, 2024: 3,916 - Jan 1, 2024: 3,623 = 293.
After only three months, 2024 appears to be yet another year that won't live up to the optimistic minimizing prediction for 2022.

And this is in spite of New Zealand's attempts to make its C19 death toll appear to be lower in comparison to other countries, resulting in three different numbers at this point as explained and documented in post 574.
See also post 635.

So is this the time where it would be appropriate for me to use phrases like "Save your ignorance", "that idiotic comment without any evidence", "parroting nonsense", "crying about "minimisers"", "panic merchants posting clear untruths", "you overstate the dangers like the boy who cried wolf"?

I ask because I seriously no longer understand how we're supposed to respond to each other on this forum.
 
Save your ignorance - that has not been the case in NZ. Health authorities and experts here have been stressing the need for vaccination.\

This doesn't seem particularly "stressing", though to their credit NZ at least continues to make it available to most. Though your presence here also implies New Zealanders have access to the internet, where they get the views of many health authorities and experts.


https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/what.../updated-covid-19-vaccine-available-in-march/

Doesn't apply to NZ either. They're a very small minority and generally considered to be nutcases that nobody but the true morons listen to.

And yet measles vaccination rates also down.


https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/01...ere-measles-outbreak-and-how-we-might-stop-it

Definitely not an increase in vaccine skepticism, eh?


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30131-0/fulltext

And you're still making that idiotic comment without any evidence. Deaths in NZ from covid have been minimal, and we record them all. You're parroting nonsense that it's killing droves of people. You have yet to provide anything more than wild speculation.

The idea that you "record them all" is truly idiotic. But it confirms my point. Minimal "official" covid deaths, so it must be something else causing the consistently high excess deaths, since it's not covid, right?:confused:


https://ourworldindata.org/explorer...e&Color+by+test+positivity=false&country=~NZL

You keep crying about "minimisers" - whoever they might be - let me state yet again that panic merchants posting clear untruths about the harm of covid are as dangerous as antivaxers because you overstate the dangers like the boy who cried wolf.

So what's your theory about what's causing excess deaths?
 
So what's your theory about what's causing excess deaths?


Maybe "driving to the clinic," I guess. The Atheist thinks it's as risky as the risk of getting Long Covid, which may account for some of the excess mortality that is not due to people dying from the acute infection.
I don't know if New Zealanders see this as an argument against driving to the clinic to get vaccinated.

Yesterday, I stumbled on the Danish number of road deaths in 2023: 155.
The number of C19 deaths was 1,700 in 2023.
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths (Our World in Data)

The number of road-related deaths in New Zealand in 2023 was 340.
 

Michael Osterholm's most recent CIDRAP podcast discusses exactly that starting at 10 mins. in. This is for the USA. He notes that large majority of countries have stopped reporting C19 cases, let alone C19 deaths.

For most of us, it's over.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BZZXVvoACA

If you are younger than 65 the odds of dying of C19 are much lower than from an auto accident. OTOH, if you are over 65 risks go up and you might want to take additional precautions.
 
This doesn't seem particularly "stressing", though to their credit NZ at least continues to make it available to most. Though your presence here also implies New Zealanders have access to the internet, where they get the views of many health authorities and experts.

I'm taking a wild guess that you don't read much NZ news, where the views of Michael Plank and Siouxsie Wiles have been made very clear as they tell Kiwis to get vaccinated and take precaustions.

And yet measles vaccination rates also down.

I made that point in the measles thread.

Definitely not an increase in vaccine skepticism, eh?

No, and there are complex reasons why a number of Kiwis choose not to get their kids vaccinated and skepticism of the vaccine isn't most of it. Sadly, we have a significant percentage of the public who don't trust white people, which is what most of the doctors and clinicians are.

The idea that you "record them all" is truly idiotic.
No, it's factual. NZ even records deaths of people with covid not just from covid, which is what enables Dann to have a panic attack below.

But it confirms my point. Minimal "official" covid deaths, so it must be something else causing the consistently high excess deaths, since it's not covid, right?:confused:]/QUOTE]

Yes, I'm not surprised you're confused. You're basing your opinion on flawed data, and I will note the "excess deaths" in the past couple of months are less than the negative excess deaths from late 2023.

marting;14299734If you are younger than 65 the odds of dying of C19 are much lower than from an auto accident. OTOH said:
 
Oh look! More facts - Queensland will no longer use the term "long covid".

The lead author of the study, the state’s chief health officer Dr John Gerrard, said it was “time to stop using terms like ‘long Covid’” because they imply there is something unique about the longer-term symptoms associated with the virus, and in some cases create hypervigilance.

The results of the study, which Gerrard will present next month at the European Congress of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases in Barcelona, found no evidence that those who had Covid-19 were more likely to have functional limitations a year on compared with those who did not have Covid-19 (3.0% v 4.1%).

The 3% of the study participants who had ongoing impairments after Covid-19 infection was similar to the 3.4% with ongoing impairments after influenza.

Thank christ in the real world people don't follow the screeching of the panic merchants at ISF.
 
For whatever this is worth the entire concept of precautions is gone now. At least where I live.

There was a campaign of free boosters offered recently by nurses walking the streets. They had few takers for streetside medical care but that's kinda normal. It's hard to trust medical care in that situation.
 
Michael Osterholm's most recent CIDRAP podcast discusses exactly that starting at 10 mins. in. This is for the USA. He notes that large majority of countries have stopped reporting C19 cases, let alone C19 deaths.

For most of us, it's over.


There's no denying that, for some people, ignorance is bliss. But what exactly is the it that you claim is over for most of us?
At the White House on Monday, President Trump spoke about testing for the coronavirus in the U.S., saying, “If we stopped testing right now, we’d have very few cases, if any.”
Trump on coronavirus testing: “When you test, you have a case” (Vox, May 15, 2020)


Unlike Trump, Danish skeptics still agree with the old Philip K. Dick saying: “Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn't go away.”
ISF minimizers, on the other hand, seem to have gone all in on Trump denialism. If we can't see it, don't believe it, and behave as if it isn't there, it isn't there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6BZZXVvoACA

If you are younger than 65 the odds of dying of C19 are much lower than from an auto accident. OTOH, if you are over 65 risks go up and you might want to take additional precautions.

Do you have the numbers? I don't. I have found this:
In the USA in June ´23, more than 270,000 people younger than 65+ had died of COVID-19 in three years and a couple of months:
COVID-19 deaths reported in the U.S. as of June 14, 2023, by age (Statista)
"The agency estimates that 40,990 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in 2023" (NHTSA, April 1, 2024)

But that is in all age groups, not just in people younger than 65, so I would really like to see the numbers you refer to since you are obviously thinking of more or less current numbers and not the numbers from the first two years of the pandemic.

I would also like to know when and why deaths in people 65+ became irrelevant and protection of them their own concern and nobody else's. I know that The Atheist thinks that deaths in the 80+ populations are not only irrelevant but to be encouraged, but when and why did 65 become the new 80?
 
Breaking News: Dying from COVID-19 makes you just as dead as dying from influenza

Oh look! More facts - Queensland will no longer use the term "long covid".

Thank christ in the real world people don't follow the screeching of the panic merchants at ISF.


It's fairly obvious who's screeching and panicking.

The researchers acknowledged the findings are associations and do not represent prevalence, and acknowledged limitations in that participants who attended hospital or had pre-existing illness were not identifiable. They also said because 90% of people in Queensland were vaccinated when Omicron emerged, the lower severity of long Covid could be due to vaccination and the variant.
Prof Philip Britton, a paediatric infectious diseases physician from the University of Sydney and a member of the Long Covid Australia Collaboration, welcomed the study given the lack of published research from Australia in this area.
However, Britton said the conclusion that it was time to stop using terms such as long Covid was “overstated and potentially unhelpful. Long Covid has been a global phenomenon, recognised by WHO.”
Time to stop using term ‘long Covid’ as symptoms no worse than those after flu, Queensland’s chief health officer says (TheGuardian, Mar 15, 2024)


Key Takeaways
* People with serious cases of both flu and COVID can experience symptoms throughout their body for months to years after the acute illness has resolved, according to a study.
* People hospitalized with COVID had a greater burden of disease, disability, and death than those with severe flu infections.
* Rather than trivialize a COVID infection by comparing it to flu, experts say that the public should recognize the serious risk of lingering complications of both diseases.
Study Shows ‘Long Flu’ Is Real, but Long COVID Is Worse (VeryWellHealth, Feb 27, 2024)


We can obviously forget about things like this because reality is irrelevant in the real world where people don't care about facts because what's important is attitude:
Results
The results indicated that the mortality rate associated with COVID-19 among the veteran population during the fall-winter season of 2022–2023 continued to be higher than that of seasonal influenza infections.
During the study period, there were 8,996 hospital admissions due to COVID-19, among which there were 538 deaths, while there were 76 deaths among the 2,403 patients hospitalized for seasonal influenza.
At 30 days, the mortality rates for SARS-CoV-2 infection and seasonal influenza were 5.97% and 3.75%, respectively, with the excess death rate being 2.23%.
The subgroup analysis revealed that COVID-19 vaccination was linked to a decrease in the mortality rate, but the other factors in the subgroup analysis, such as age and antiviral treatment in the outpatient setting, did not affect the mortality rates.
A comparison of death rates associated with COVID-19 versus influenza during fall-winter 2022-23 (News-Medical, April 10, 2023)


Minimizers gonna screech and minimize. It's in their nature.
 
For whatever this is worth the entire concept of precautions is gone now. At least where I live.

And everywhere else.

Like I said, thankfully, there's only a minuscule minority of scaredy-cats still afreaid of covid, and I can't understand why - we have extremely successful antivrals and catching covid is the least worrisome thing ever.

I think we need to start describing it as covid-phobia. It's highly irrational.

It's fairly obvious who's screeching and panicking.

You really struggle with English, and I do try to make allowances for the fact it's not your first language.

Telling people not to panic isn't panicking. It's the exact opposite of panicking, but I don't imagine that will stop you using the word incorrectly.
 
And everywhere else.

Like I said, thankfully, there's only a minuscule minority of scaredy-cats still afreaid of covid, and I can't understand why - we have extremely successful antivrals and catching covid is the least worrisome thing ever.

I think we need to start describing it as covid-phobia. It's highly irrational.


I'm glad I stuck to my irrational decision to wear an FFP-3 mask on crowded public transportation when I was in Hamburg last month. Unlike the approximately one-third of the rational unmasked passengers around me who were coughing, I didn't get sick.
 
Because there's been -

(a) a concerted effort by health authorities to minimise the seriousness of SARS-CoV-2
(b) a concerted effort by anti-vaxxers to demonise SARS-CoV-2 vaccines

(a) nudges us to be not too concerned with vaccine updates, since it's a mild cold now, and it's not really recommended strongly any more for most ...
but ...
people seem to be "unexpectedly" dropping like flies (and excess mortality confirms it) ... so since it can't be "mild" covid ... it might just be (b)!

So best not to get vaccinated, eh?



https://www.tewhatuora.govt.nz/our-...tics/covid-vaccine-data/#vaccinations-by-week

My daughter has been spending this year in a Canadian university as a year abroad for her 3rd year. She got a Covid booster there and the nurse was shocked that it had been over a year since she had been able to get one in the UK. It seems normal for 20year olds to get boosters in Canada, which makes far more sense to me.

It also seems stupid that I was entitled to a flu jab but not a Covid booster in the UK.
 

Back
Top Bottom