Split Thread Musk, SpaceX and future of Tesla

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I know what you mean. That's why I swore never to buy a car with automatic transmission…

Sarcasm noted.

I still enjoy hustling our 5-speed Honda Element through the twisties. We may own another Miata or similar sports car someday, and a manual transmission will be de rigeur. I own a handful of motorcycles that allow plenty of “engagement”. My little sport plane has no autopilot, so constant corrections are needed even in straight and level flight.

But our Tesla with just the standard “Autopilot” is a real pleasure on long trips. The “Traffic Aware Cruise Control” combined with very accurate Lane Keeping Assist go a long way to reduce driver fatigue over the course of a day. One still has to constantly monitor what the systems are doing and be prepared to take over instantly, much as in an airplane on autopilot. But not having to make thousands of little corrections to speed and steering also allow drivers to remain more alert and monitor what really matters - road conditions, road hazards and other traffic.

But I’ll stipulate that these driver assist systems can and will lead some drivers to complacency. Some will flagrantly abuse the systems, which will inevitably lead to accidents. Not hard to find such abuse online. There will be a learning curve as society adjusts, but adjust it will - the systems are the future, like it or not.
 
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Things that help you not get tired are always welcome.
I love the cruise control, as well as the automatic windscreen wipers our car has.

The lane keeping though? I hate it, I truly do.
I’ve tried it and at first I thought it very handy.
Till I overtook some large truck on the highway.
The moment I was next to it, it started drifting towards and a bit over the lane divider stripe. So I kept a bit more to the left, while overtaking.
And then the lane keeping tried to take over and point me back to the middle of our lane. Right towards that truck!

Luckily the force needed to overrule the lane keeping is not that large. But at that moment I had the feeling that I was fighting my car in order not to end up under that truck.

So no. That is one ‘handy’ option I will never use. Much to stressful.
 
Things that help you not get tired are always welcome.
I love the cruise control, as well as the automatic windscreen wipers our car has.

The lane keeping though? I hate it, I truly do.
I’ve tried it and at first I thought it very handy.
Till I overtook some large truck on the highway.
The moment I was next to it, it started drifting towards and a bit over the lane divider stripe. So I kept a bit more to the left, while overtaking.
And then the lane keeping tried to take over and point me back to the middle of our lane. Right towards that truck!

Luckily the force needed to overrule the lane keeping is not that large. But at that moment I had the feeling that I was fighting my car in order not to end up under that truck.

So no. That is one ‘handy’ option I will never use. Much to stressful.

This seems counterproductive to me, but different strokes for different folks, and all that. The thing that makes me safer 99% of the time, but makes me ever so slightly less safe in rare circumstances is a net benefit in my book.
 
But of course nobody's excoriating them for advancing driving technology to the next level, because...

Other than the things already noted, it's worth pointing out that the only one of those companies of particular focus for this thread is Tesla. It's entirely fine to bring those other companies for comparison and contrasting, but if one is going to toss out the "Everyone's just picking on X" card (yet again), that just won't work.

To go a bit further, personally, I both consider myself a below average quality driver and feel like travel time is just about equivalent to wasted time. For selfish reasons, I quite look forward to the day when I can use a good, self-driving car. Further, if accidents can be reduced to virtually none with ubiquitous use of self-driving cars, that would be great. I have no objection to self-driving cars as a concept or usage. Why would I excoriate ANY of those companies, including Tesla, for working to advance us towards that future?

Now, with that said, there is something to be said for ethical and responsible research practices and design and the concerns surrounding that. That is the realm where most of the direct concerns about Tesla have been here. One could point at, say, Tesla's statement that -

In the 3rd quarter, we recorded one crash for every 6.26 million miles driven in which drivers were using Autopilot technology. For drivers who were not using Autopilot technology, we recorded one crash for every 1.71 million miles driven.

And bring up the potentially persuasive point about statistical reductions in total accidents into the discussion. There is further discussion that could then be had about how representative the sample actually is of the general public (likely not very at all, but even with that it's plausible that the autopilot could help statistically reduce accidents even now) and so on, so that would hardly be some definitive end to the matter. That would all be in reasonable discussion territory. Instead, you chose to whine about a straw man. Perhaps it's worth engaging in a bit of self-reflection about why you did that?

In a different direction, there's the angle about how this is very likely being pushed as a questionably ethical marketing technique for a rather high priced product with safety concerns that have only partially been addressed regarding the public, with research purposes almost certainly only being a potential side bonus, rather than why the trial is being arbitrarily given. It's a related discussion to the previous, but very much not the same.

In a third direction, theprestige and I both expressed concerns about how we would handle things with the current state of the technology. That's not picking on Tesla in the first place, yet it also has a very real place in the discussion about self-driving technology.
 
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This seems counterproductive to me, but different strokes for different folks, and all that. The thing that makes me safer 99% of the time, but makes me ever so slightly less safe in rare circumstances is a net benefit in my book.

The problem is that it doesn’t make me feel safe. I’ve tried it a few times and each time I found I was just waiting for it to turn me into other traffic. Which does not help with lessening the tired feeling after a long day working.

Maybe it’s the fact that our highways are so busy.
I’m lucky if I can use the cruise control for 50 of the 200 km of my regular trips. Still, even then it helps me getting less tired, so I love it anyway.
Lane keeping, though? No. That only works counter productive. At least for me.
 
Malibu Stacy has a new hat! (Simpsons reference)

Tesla has redesigned the cab of the semi to have a sleeper. No increased range, not more weight capacity but a bed and slightly smaller window area.

In fact a bit less range for the extra weight it brings. According to the video released by Tesla themselves.

This is the problem with designer vs utility things. Next a new trim package and it can be painted in two-tone colors!

They aren't making it directly competitive with diesel trucks in range nor weight capacity already possible in a million existing trucks with sleepers out there.

This is what really matters to fleet operations.
 
But that's why it's being supplied for free - to improve its performance. The more people use it the more data they have to tune the AI. The 'significant interventions' are not bad thing. It will learn from its mistakes.



This thread is about Tesla, but let's not ignore all the other car companies that are working on FSD.



28 Self-Driving Car Companies You Should Know



But of course nobody's excoriating them for advancing driving technology to the next level, because...
The thing that makes this so contentious is Musk. He makes a mess of everything. Instead of clearly enunciating what the plans for FSD are, what it can achieve and what they hope to achieve, Musk goes out, probably high on ketamine, and makes ridiculous promises that everyone with any sense knows he can't keep, then he just keeps doing it again and again.

There is still no realistic timeline for a colony on Mars, years after it was supposed to have happened.
 
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The thing that makes this so contentious is Musk. He makes a mess of everything.

Everything?

Arguably the best selling car in the world is the Tesla Model Y*. No small feat.

SpaceX managed to make rocket boosters reusable. No small feat.

People all over the globe now have reliable internet via Starlink. No small feat.

Unless one sees the world through a lens of Musk hate, it’s hard to say Musk makes a mess of everything.


*One can argue about whether the Model Y is actually the best selling car in the world. But if it’s even in contention is still no small feat.
 
i can acknowledge that none of that would exist as it is today without him, but i think it's fair to question how integral musk has been to those accomplishments. he can call himself the ceo and chief engineer of space x, the ceo and product architect of tesla, executive chairman of twitter, and claim all kinds of involvement in other projects and foundations, but that's not true. there's not enough hours in the day to be all those things at once, especially when he's flying around the globe attending events and doing podcasts and things like that, and playing on his phone all day.

to a certain extent he's been an absent ceo in each of those endeavors.
 
We get it. Some people really want to hate Elon Musk. They want to hate Elon Musk so much that they want to hate everything he's ever been a part of, whether it makes sense or not. They want to hate Elon Musk so much that when you point out that some of their hatred of Musk-adjacent things makes them look absolutely unhinged in their hatred of Elon Musk, their reaction is "but it's still okay for me to hate Elon Musk, right?"
 
We get it. Some people really want to hate Elon Musk. They want to hate Elon Musk so much that they want to hate everything he's ever been a part of, whether it makes sense or not. They want to hate Elon Musk so much that when you point out that some of their hatred of Musk-adjacent things makes them look absolutely unhinged in their hatred of Elon Musk, their reaction is "but it's still okay for me to hate Elon Musk, right?"

I would say that Elon Musk has a desperate need for some people to hate him.
 
We get it. Some people really want to hate Elon Musk. They want to hate Elon Musk so much that they want to hate everything he's ever been a part of, whether it makes sense or not. They want to hate Elon Musk so much that when you point out that some of their hatred of Musk-adjacent things makes them look absolutely unhinged in their hatred of Elon Musk, their reaction is "but it's still okay for me to hate Elon Musk, right?"

There's nothing wrong with hating Elon. I do. I think he's an absolute piece of ****. I also view him like I view most other heads of companies. They aren't the ones doing the literal designing, the literal building, the literal programing. I mean, it would be ******* stupid to give him credit for those things, while not giving credit to those that actually did the work.

It's like when the iPhone came out and people gave credit to Cook. Why? He didn't ******* do it. He told a bunch of staff what he wanted, and forced them to figure it out. He probably had some input, but we all know Musk isn't sitting down at a computer, checking code for the driving system and **** like that.

I see this as broken into two camps. The one you mentioned before, where Musk gets no credit for anything. And the other camp, where he gets credit for everything. I view him in neither. He had a talent for recruiting talent and is, on some level, a great project manager. Given that he's openly stated that he forces people to sleep on the floor in their office, etc. I'm not giving him credit for building this **** when it was done on the backs of the people he forced to do this. Those people deserve the credit. Is it not enough Musk gets all the money? We HAVE to give him all the praise too?
 
Musk knows as much about making a reusable rocket booster as my cat.
Musk knows as well as Gump does how to keep all eyes on him if anything actually works well within his sphere.

The cult of personality isn't genius personified. It's an image at best.
 
They aren't the ones doing the literal designing, the literal building, the literal programing. I mean, it would be ******* stupid to give him credit for those things, while not giving credit to those that actually did the work.


Unless there is any perceived imperfection with any product made by an Elon Musk company, then it's totally his fault.

Body lines don't line up on your Tesla? Elon Musk is an idiot.
Body lines line up on your Tesla? It's the hard-working personnel under Elon Musk, not Elon Musk.

Launchpad get obliterated during Starship launch? Elon Musk is an idiot.
Launchpad works during the next 2 Starship launches? That's despite Elon Musk's involvement.

Falcon 9 booster tips over and is destroyed during inclement weather? Elon Musk is an idiot.
The 250 successful Falcon 9 booster recoveries(the ones that people used to say were impossible and that Musk was an idiot for trying)? Gwynne Shotwell.
Musk is an idiot.

The list goes on and on.
 
Unless there is any perceived imperfection with any product made by an Elon Musk company, then it's totally his fault.

Body lines don't line up on your Tesla? Elon Musk is an idiot.
Body lines line up on your Tesla? It's the hard-working personnel under Elon Musk, not Elon Musk.

Launchpad get obliterated during Starship launch? Elon Musk is an idiot.
Launchpad works during the next 2 Starship launches? That's despite Elon Musk's involvement.

Falcon 9 booster tips over and is destroyed during inclement weather? Elon Musk is an idiot.
The 250 successful Falcon 9 booster recoveries(the ones that people used to say were impossible and that Musk was an idiot for trying)? Gwynne Shotwell.
Musk is an idiot.

The list goes on and on.

Musk is a rich CEO. Rich CEOs are always a target of hatred for people of certain political persuasions. The richer, the greater the hatred.
 
everybody has their motivations. others hate him for the things he's said and done.
 
Everything?

Arguably the best selling car in the world is the Tesla Model Y*. No small feat.
In spite of Musk.

SpaceX managed to make rocket boosters reusable. No small feat.
Reusable rocket boosters are not a new idea. Engineers at SpaceX seem to have made them commercially viable, in spite of Musk.
People all over the globe now have reliable internet via Starlink. No small feat.
People all over the globe had reliable internet before Starlink. About 80% of Americans already live in urban areas and therefore likely have access to cable or 5g broadband.

It's not certain, by the way, that Starlink is commercially sustainable.

If it is sustainable, it is successful in spite of Musk.
 
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