How do we know a pandemic's over?

[dann]

Betteridge's Law of Headlines.

The answer 'no' would be wrong in this case.

 

[The Atheist]

"... there are no adverse outcomes reported from mistranslation of mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in humans ..."

Is it possible that ...

...yet again your English as a second language is holding you back from understanding what the study says?

I'm happy to go through it piece by piece with you to help you understand, so let's just start with you ignoring the word directly before the phrase you snipped. That word is "although", which is an old English word used to show that while nothing has happened yet, there is a potential problem. It is the key part of the sentence and the part you quoted is false without that word in front of it.

The rest of the sentence you snipped is: ...these data highlight potential off-target effects for future mRNA-based therapeutics and demonstrate the requirement for sequence optimization.

"Potential off-target effects". They could even be positive, but without studies showing what they are, we don't know and caution is sensible. We do have a history of drugs being rushed to market only to discover they're not quite what they seemed, or maybe you haven't heard of thalidomide. Here's a handy list of others: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_withdrawn_drugs

The study further notes:

We reasoned that +1 ribosomal frameshifting during recombinant antigen mRNA translation could lead to presentation of +1 frameshifted products to T cells, and elicit off-target cellular immune response.

For your benefit I'll try to put that into simpler English.

It is saying the mRNA vaccine could change the way T cells work. T cells are critical to our immune system, and it is essential that we know how and what is happening in case those changes lead to less or altered immunity from diseases. Maybe you struggle with the word "elicit", which means to draw out.

Feel free to ask for help with any other parts you don't understand.

 

[dann]

Unlike The Atheist, apparently, I know what both reasoned and could mean: "We reasoned that +1 ribosomal frameshifting during recombinant antigen mRNA translation could lead to presentation of +1 frameshifted products to T cells, and elicit off-target cellular immune response."

And unlike The Atheist, I even know what potential and although mean in this particular context: that although they have what they think is an interesting hypothesis about a potential damage mRNA vaccines might cause, they are aware that it is nothing but a hypothesis since there have never been any actually "adverse outcomes reported from mistranslation of mRNA-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in humans."

I can't be bothered to explain this to The Atheist again. Since he brags about his ability to read, I'll just refer him to the Science-Based Medicine article again:
Do mRNA vaccines produce harmful “junk proteins” that “gunk up” the cell and cause unintended “off-target” immune responses? (SBM, Dec 11, 2023).

 

[dann]

Well I ended up taking a covid test, since this thing has been kicking my ass for over a week now... and it came back negative. So I guess it's just a really bad cold. Still not enough to put me in the hospital though.

Take this into consideration:

The results show not only that SARS-CoV-2 is found in the lungs of certain individuals for up to 18 months after infection, but also that its persistence appears to be linked to a failure of innate immunity (the first line of defense against pathogens).
(...)
Initial results from the study indicate that viruses were found in the lungs of some individuals 6 to 18 months after infection even though the virus was undetectable in the upper respiratory tract or blood. Another finding was that the amount of persistent virus in the lungs was lower for the Omicron strain than for the original SARS-CoV-2 strain. "We were really surprised to find viruses in certain immune cells - alveolar macrophages - after such a long period and when regular PCR tests were negative," points out Nicolas Huot, first author of the study and researcher in the Institut Pasteur's HIV, Inflammation and Persistence Unit. "What's more, we cultured these viruses and were able to observed, using the tools we developed to study HIV, that they were still capable of replicating."
COVID-19: the persistence of SARS-CoV-2 in the lungs and the role of innate immunity (Pasteur.fr, Dec 5, 2023)

 

[theprestige]

Take this into consideration:

Why? I'm talking about a respiratory illness I'm currently experiencing, not about lingering traces of a respiratory illness I experienced a year and a half ago.

It would be super obnoxious and counterproductive, if a Covid test came back positive every time I had the flu, just because I had Covid one time two years prior.

 

[dann]

It is not about "lingering traces of a respiratory illness" in general. It's about lingering C19. If you never had it, there's nothing to consider.

 

[marting]

Flu has been markedly lower than normal everywhere, and markedly lower than C19 since it's less contagious. The precautions taken against C19 seem to have worked even better against the flu.

Yeah, that's one of the more interesting aspects.

So C19 has not only killed far more people, the CFR is also considerably higher than the flu.
When you think that the flu is "likely [to] catch up with Covid in the next few weeks," are you then talking about cases, deaths or outbreaks? Or 'all of the above'?

Covid-19 CFR is higher than flu. However, it's flu (and RSV) that's ramping. A month ago flu was miniscule, not now. The latest 5 day rolling average of ICU cases has almost as many flu as C19 cases. This is the odd thing about C19/Flu. Flu remains strongly seasonal.

It's obviously good if C19 isn't stressing health care like last year: ERs stressed as COVID-19 cases increase in San Diego County (San Diego Union-Tribune, Dec 8, 2022)

However, something appears to be stressing health-care workers even if it isn't C19:

Hmm. Looks like union activity from inflation and a desire to catch up economically. Happening in lots of industries.

I don't think you're right, marting!
And as for people "just going about their business normally. Few masks." I am not sure that you are aware what this means. It's The Atheist's favorite argument whenever his comparisons and predictions are debunked.

My comment was observational about the general response here. It's not nuts. The plain fact is that in San Diego the C19 death rates are currently lower than those at the peak of a typical flu season let alone a high flu season. Not unreasonable for people to behave similar to how they do during the peak of flu seasons.

It means that more people will get infected, hospitalized and die because they don't take precautions - for their own sake or for the sake of those who are particularly vulnerable.
I doesn't mean that the pandemic is over.

So what's your definition of when the pandemic is over? I'm not a fan of labels like pandemic, epidemic, and endemic. Just want to see the numbers and adjust my behavior based on those. From a definitional point of view, flu is pandemic most years and has been forever.

 

[theprestige]

It is not about "lingering traces of a respiratory illness" in general. It's about lingering C19. If you never had it, there's nothing to consider.

English as a second language is failing you yet again, I see.

 

[dann]

Yeah, that's one of the more interesting aspects.

Covid-19 CFR is higher than flu. However, it's flu (and RSV) that's ramping. A month ago flu was miniscule, not now. The latest 5 day rolling average of ICU cases has almost as many flu as C19 cases. This is the odd thing about C19/Flu. Flu remains strongly seasonal.

For whatever reason, the flu seems to be (and remain) less contagious than SARS-CoV-2, which might explain both why it disappears completely in the summer and only manages to be epidemic in the winter when people stay indoors more, and why it is also impacted more by precautions like masking up and social distancing.
By the way, the flu is also rising faster than C19 in Denmark right now, but there are still twice as many C19 hospitalizations.

Hmm. Looks like union activity from inflation and a desire to catch up economically. Happening in lots of industries.

I won't claim that it isn't possible to use an argument about something else to get more money, but it's not what they're saying, and if it weren't true that there's a staffing shortage and that there are many "front-line health-care workers who are burnt out and stretched to the max and leaving the industry," it would be easy for their employer to point it out.
It's the same complaint you hear from hospital workers everywhere. Also in DK. Teachers, too, by the way. Also one of the professions hardest hit by the virus.

My comment was observational about the general response here. It's not nuts. The plain fact is that in San Diego the C19 death rates are currently lower than those at the peak of a typical flu season let alone a high flu season. Not unreasonable for people to behave similar to how they do during the peak of flu seasons.

I don't think it's untrue that people don't mask up and behave as if everything were back to normal. As I mentioned yesterday, I only started masking up again recently, and I am still the only one. Most people aren't aware that what they and/or their neighbors and/or their colleagues and/or their children are coming down with is probably C19.
They also don't know that the current death toll is higher than in a high flu season. In my opinion, we could learn something from Asian countries and mask up "during the peak of flu seasons," but it's possible that it is currently no worse than that in San Diego, and I hope for your sake that it will stay that way this winter.
We haven't been so lucky in DK.

So what's your definition of when the pandemic is over? I'm not a fan of labels like pandemic, epidemic, and endemic. Just want to see the numbers and adjust my behavior based on those. From a definitional point of view, flu is pandemic most years and has been forever.

I only object to claims about the 'pandemic being over' because it usually means 'not really bad and nothing to be concerned about', i.e. another way of minimizing the actually existing and still ongoing pandemic. Like you, I would much prefer to see the facts, in particular because we are in a situation in many countries where the public health authorities are trying to prevent most people from getting access to the number, and in this situation the claim that the pandemic is over is the last straw. Your two San Diego links were great in this respect. We no longer have something like that, easy to understand at a glance for people who aren't health-care professionals. (And I know some Danes who are who didn't know where to find the current Danish C19 numbers.)
post 339, post 353.

 

[The Atheist]

I can't be bothered to explain this to The Atheist again. Since he brags about his ability to read, I'll just refer him to the Science-Based Medicine article again:
Do mRNA vaccines produce harmful “junk proteins” that “gunk up” the cell and cause unintended “off-target” immune responses? (SBM, Dec 11, 2023).

Petard, meet hoist.

Maybe you should find a Danish version of the article, because you appear to have completely overlooked this direct quote from the piece you linked:

Isn’t something (like adding pseudouridine to mRNA) that increases the likelihood of ribosomal frame shifting a bad thing? The answer is: It depends. It might be.

The sensible option is to study further. Thankfully, actual scientists don't rely on the kind of assumptions you make and are doing those studies.

 

[jt512]

Dream on. Your definition is wrong

As I retired graduate-trained epidemiologist, I can assure you that my definition of a pandemic is exactly right.

and your claim that the CDC, the ECDC and WHO agree with you is a delusion.

It depends on who in those organizations you talk to. Representatives from each of those organizations have publicly stated that the pandemic appears to be over, or equivalently, that Covid-19 is now an endemic disease. Others in those same organizations, say that though it looks like the pandemic may be over, there is not enough data to yet say so definitively. I can't really disagree with that sentiment, two years of pandemic data followed by two years of apparent endemic data is a little thin.

But ask yourself why things would get much better or worse from where they are now. Just about everybody who is going to get vaccinated has and just about everybody who is going to get infected (which is to say just about everybody) has. We're thus at pretty much the maximum possible herd immunity level. Therefore, we should expect about the same number of infections each year from now on; we have probably hit the endemic incidence rate.

Of course the virus could mutate to a more- or less-infective strain, which would change the incidence, or a more- or less- virulent strain, which would change the severity. But that can happen to any virus; it has nothing to do with whether we are in a pandemic now.

It is nothing new that minimizers make up whatever they want to believe.

Here's what is true: You don't even know what a pandemic is, yet you are arguing that there we are in one. People who can't make a sound argument because they know so little about a subject that the don't even understand how that subject is defined, have no choice but to attack their adversaries with ad hominems, like calling them "minimizers."

 

[dann]

So you have now gone from:

The US CDC, European CDC, and the WHO have all stated that Covid-19 is now endemic rather than pandemic.

To claiming that you might be able to find someone "in those organizations" who would say it:

It depends on who in those organizations you talk to. Representatives from each of those organizations have publicly stated that the pandemic appears to be over, or equivalently, that Covid-19 is now an endemic disease.

Your could at least acknowledge that you were wrong.
Since you are retired, you should have plenty of time to search the internet for links to back up your story instead of simply making up claims about what the CDC, the ECDC and WHO - the actual organizations, not random representatives - allegedly say.

 

[dann]

This one is just too good to be true. The Atheist has done it again.

Petard, meet hoist.

Maybe you should find a Danish version of the article, because you appear to have completely overlooked this direct quote from the piece you linked:

Isn’t something (like adding pseudouridine to mRNA) that increases the likelihood of ribosomal frame shifting a bad thing? The answer is: It depends. It might be.

The sensible option is to study further. Thankfully, actual scientists don't rely on the kind of assumptions you make and are doing those studies.

Guess what The Atheist removed from his meticulously cherry-picked sentence from a looong article before he, just as meticulously, capitalized "isn't" to make it appear as if it were the first word of the sentence and bolded the answer ... to the antivaxxers!

But, antivaxxers might ask, isn’t something (like adding pseudouridine to mRNA) that increases the likelihood of ribosomal frame shifting a bad thing? The answer is: It depends. It might be.
Do mRNA vaccines produce harmful “junk proteins” that “gunk up” the cell and cause unintended “off-target” immune responses? (Science-Based Medicine, Dec 11, 2023)

I'll have to borrow The Atheist's emotional-support dog for this one:

And let me add the whole paragraph for context:

But, antivaxxers might ask, isn’t something (like adding pseudouridine to mRNA) that increases the likelihood of ribosomal frame shifting a bad thing? The answer is: It depends. It might be. Certainly, in therapeutics we strive to produce exactly the protein intended, no more, no less. However, that doesn’t mean that the findings of this study are evidence that mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines are “dunking up” your cells and causing all sorts of random harmful immune reactions, as antivaxxers are claiming. Now that you have some idea of what this form of frame shifting is and know that it’s also not the horribly “unnatural” thing that antivaxxers is [are] trying to portray it as based on this study, let’s look at the study itself.

But I still recommend that people interested in this read the whole thing.

 

[jt512]

So you have now gone from:

To claiming that you might be able to find someone "in those organizations" who would say it

Official representatives of the organizations, not just some rando within them.

I have also explained with data and theory why it is likely that the pandemic is already over. You, on the other hand, are arguing that the pandemic is ongoing, while demonstrating that you don't actually know what a pandemic is. Obviously, if you don't know what a pandemic is, you can't know whether we are in one, and any opinion you may have on the question is baseless.

I've explained to you both empirically and theoretically why the pandemic is likely over (and likely has been for more than a year). The best anyone can say is that we don't yet have enough data to make that determination (I'm not 100% sure myself, but I'd put the probability quite high). Public health organizations who, despite what their own epidemiologists say, release contradictory statements like "Covid-19 has reached the endemic stage, but we're not out of the pandemic yet" are making political statements, not empirical or scientific ones.

 

[The Atheist]

Guess what The Atheist removed from his meticulously cherry-picked sentence from a looong article before he, just as meticulously, capitalized "isn't" to make it appear as if it were the first word of the sentence and bolded the answer ... to the antivaxxers!

You did it! Thanks for that.

I left that out deliberately because it has no relevance and I just knew you'd jump on it as though it did. Well played.

The fact remains that the piece I quoted is correct and you haven't refuted it, because you can't, and instead jumped on a word that makes no change to the meaning of the sentence, unlike the one of yours I quoted.

Your understanding of English seems to get worse by the day.

 

[Roger Ramjets]

That is pure gold. During almost all of July 2022 the number of hospital cases was over 900, double the present load, so you pick a date that suits your false claim.

Not according to the RNZ website data. It shows a peak of 858 admissions on July 24. For June the numbers were 480, 404, 404 and 462. Current numbers for December 2023 are 410 and 414. We shall have to wait and see what the next 2 weeks bring...

Unfortunately Wastewater detections are continuing to go up, with 7,627,081 on Dec 10. This is higher that it was on April 17 2022 when hospital admissions were at 460.

On a more personal note, on Saturday a guy visited me to trade some stuff. We were in the workshop together for about 30 minutes. The next day he rang up to say he tested positive for Covid. Today his sore throat is gone but he still feels miserable. Looks like I dodged a bullet!

 

[dann]

Your San Diego link says:

COVID-19: Cases 25,164, Deaths 143, Outbreaks 219.
Influenza: Cases 3,028, Deaths 6, Outbreaks 1.
RSV: Cases 1,944, Deaths 2, Outbreaks 3.

So C19 has not only killed far more people, the CFR is also considerably higher than the flu.
When you think that the flu is "likely [to] catch up with Covid in the next few weeks," are you then talking about cases, deaths or outbreaks? Or 'all of the above'?

Two weeks later, the flu may be on the way to catching up with COVID-19 in cases per week but far from it in death toll or outbreaks, so far:

COVID-19: Cases 27,891, Deaths 160, Outbreaks 249.
Influenza: Cases 5,225, Deaths 9, Outbreaks 6.
RSV: Cases 2,768, Deaths 4, Outbreaks 4.
San Diego County Respiratory Virus Surveillance Report (San Diego County, Dec 21, 2023)

Figure 16 shows "Influenza Deaths by Age and Fiscal Year," 2019-20 till present: 173.
So not even 10% higher than COVID-19 in 2023-24 alone so far (Figure 15).
RSV deaths 2019-20 till present (Figure 17): 48.

So far, San Diego is doing considerably better than Denmark (or Sweden) this season.
It would be interesting to know why. The weather might have something to do with it. Temperatures aren't exactly Scandinavian: 10 Day Weather - San Diego, CA.
Fahrenheit 65^o = Celsius 18.3^o, i.e. Scandinavian summer temperatures.

 

[dann]

Official representatives of the organizations, not just some rando within them.

You left out this part of my post:

You could at least acknowledge that you were wrong.
Since you are retired, you should have plenty of time to search the internet for links to back up your story instead of simply making up claims about what the CDC, the ECDC and WHO - the actual organizations, not random representatives - allegedly say.

You don't seem to understand the difference between an official WHO statement and what some random acquaintance of yours may have confided in you. First, you made the claim that the CDC, WHO and ECDC had declared that the pandemic was over. I showed that you were wrong. Now you claim that official representatives of CDC and WHO disagree with the organization they work for, so let us see your documentation. Present us with the quotations, give us the links. I presented you with the quotations and links to the US CDC and WHO's statements in post 380:

Dream on. Your definition is wrong, and your claim that the CDC, the ECDC and WHO agree with you is a delusion. What the US CDC said was that "as a nation, we now find ourselves at a different point in the pandemic." In the pandemic! Do you understand the meaning of those words?!
WHO says, "The COVID-19 Pandemic is not over yet," and, "This does not mean the pandemic itself is over, but the global emergency it caused is – for now."
I also don't see the ECDC declaring anywhere that the pandemic is over.

It is nothing new that minimizers make up whatever they want to believe. That's why you're "not alone in saying that," but it's a delusion to think that the CDC, the ECDC and WHO back you up on this. Particularly now when the levels of infection are rising all over the world - and in Australia, too, in spite of all the talk about C19 being a seasonal flu.

Now, it's your turn to present us with the quotations and links to statements by your alleged rogue "official representatives of the organizations."

I have also explained with data and theory why it is likely that the pandemic is already over. You, on the other hand, are arguing that the pandemic is ongoing, while demonstrating that you don't actually know what a pandemic is. Obviously, if you don't know what a pandemic is, you can't know whether we are in one, and any opinion you may have on the question is baseless.

I've explained to you both empirically and theoretically why the pandemic is likely over (and likely has been for more than a year). The best anyone can say is that we don't yet have enough data to make that determination (I'm not 100% sure myself, but I'd put the probability quite high). Public health organizations who, despite what their own epidemiologists say, release contradictory statements like "Covid-19 has reached the endemic stage, but we're not out of the pandemic yet" are making political statements, not empirical or scientific ones.

I explained to you why you were wrong and backed it up with links and quotations. It is pretty obvious, now more so than two weeks ago, that we are in an ongoing pandemic. That you are now claiming, on the one hand, that you have already "explained with data and theory why it is likely that the pandemic is already over," and on the other hand, that we "don't yet have enough data to make that determination," doesn't exactly back up your claim.

This was your own definition of a pandemic - and your first claim about the stance of the US CDC, the European CDC, and the WHO:

A pandemic has nothing to do with the absolute incidence of a disease or a disease's severity. A pandemic is, by definition, a worldwide significant increase in the incidence of a disease above its usual level. Once the incidence of a disease diminishes to its usual level, a pandemic is over—by definition. The disease is endemic. That's what we see now. There has been no major spike in incidence since winter of 2021–22. The incidence has settled down to an endemic level with what seem to be predictable increases in winter and summer. I'm not alone in saying that this. The US CDC, European CDC, and the WHO have all stated that Covid-19 is now endemic rather than pandemic.

Maybe you should start by telling us what the "usual level" of COVID-19 is supposed to be, in your opinion.

In the meantime:
CNN seems to think it was a one-year pandemic!

Covid-19 caused 7 hospitalizations for every 100,000 people in the week ending December 9, accounting for a 3% increase, CDC data shows.
More than three-quarters of US hospital beds are currently in use, which is largely in line with trends over the past three years since the Covid-19 pandemic. However, the CDC warns that rising respiratory virus hospitalizations could strain health care resources in the coming weeks.
Covid-19 variant JN.1 is now the leading cause of infections in the US. (CNN, Dec 23, 2023)

The U.N. is not so naïve:

Unprecedented emergency response
With the rallying cry “no one is safe until everyone is safe”, COVAX partners urged the world to place vaccine equity at the heart of the global response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and for every country to have at least enough doses to protect those most at risk.
“The joint efforts of all partners to ensure an equitable response to the pandemic helped protect the futures of millions of children in vulnerable communities,” said Catherine Russell, Executive Director of UNICEF.
COVID-19: WHO designates JN.1 ‘variant of interest’ amid sharp rise in global spread (UN News, Dec 20, 2023)

“After a quieter 2023, it’s a sign that we can’t just assume that Covid has gone away or can’t cause us significant issues any more,” she said, adding as many people had not been eligible for recent booster programmes, they had not had a Covid vaccination for two years.
“This will likely mean they feel sicker [if they do catch Covid] and also [have an] increased risk of long Covid too,” Pagel said. “Given we’ve got millions of leftover vaccines from the autumn booster campaign, why not try to put them in people’s arms instead of the bin and open them out to the general population?”
Covid rising in England and Scotland as new variant spreads around world (TheGuardian, Dec 21, 2023)

Covid, flu and RSV hospitalizations spike across the U.S. (Dec 21, 2023 - 4:12 min)
JN.1 Covid variant: WHO charts its rapid global spread (BBC, Dec 20, 2023)
And then there was my recent (Dec 21) post about the C19 surge in Sweden and Denmark in the Sweden (Nordics, NZ) thread: post 1,276.

ETA:

A WHO-sponsored international body, tasked with preparing an international agreement on pandemic prevention, preparedness and response has defined a pandemic as "the global spread of a pathogen or variant that infects human populations with limited or no immunity through sustained and high transmissibility from person to person, overwhelming health systems with severe morbidity and high mortality, and causing social and economic disruptions, all of which require effective national and global collaboration and coordination for its control".
Pandemic: Definition (Wikipedia)

So we are now in the middle of the SARS-CoV-2, JN.1-variant, pandemic.

 

[dann]

You did it! Thanks for that.
I left that out deliberately because it has no relevance and I just knew you'd jump on it as though it did. Well played.
The fact remains that the piece I quoted is correct and you haven't refuted it, because you can't, and instead jumped on a word that makes no change to the meaning of the sentence, unlike the one of yours I quoted.
Your understanding of English seems to get worse by the day.

 

[Trebuchet]

Not according to the RNZ website data. It shows a peak of 858 admissions on July 24. For June the numbers were 480, 404, 404 and 462. Current numbers for December 2023 are 410 and 414. We shall have to wait and see what the next 2 weeks bring...

Unfortunately Wastewater detections are continuing to go up, with 7,627,081 on Dec 10. This is higher that it was on April 17 2022 when hospital admissions were at 460.

[qimg]http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/picture.php?albumid=1476&pictureid=13897[/qimg]

On a more personal note, on Saturday a guy visited me to trade some stuff. We were in the workshop together for about 30 minutes. The next day he rang up to say he tested positive for Covid. Today his sore throat is gone but he still feels miserable. Looks like I dodged a bullet!

Have you tested?