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Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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The Don said:
I wouldn't fight under those circumstances but I'm not the target audience.
History is full of examples of groups fighting insurmountable odds. If they're on our side then they're brave patriots, if not then they're crazy zealots. Russia (or more accurately the Soviet Union, but Russia has appropriated that history) has a comparatively recent example of sacrificing millions to protect Mother Russia and defeat Fascism. They are being told that this is the same situation, whether they believe it is another matter.

Until and unless Putin chooses to throw in the towel then young Russians will continue to be fed into the meat grinder. Whether they're prepared to fight may be moot if they're not given a choice.
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You forgot the important bit there "and losing".
 
Andy_Ross said:
They haven't got the manpower or forces to occupy Ukraine.
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It's gone well beyond that point at this stage, they haven't go the manpower, forces or equipment to materially shift the front lines by this stage. If by some miracle they got 2,000 fully upgraded T-90's, they can't use them because they've ground up any soldier with tank training in infantry assault brigades.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
Never knew you could train corpses. The Donbas and Lugansk militias are well gone.
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The units are still in the front line and they're still recruiting "meat" for the grinder though increasingly it's enforced impressment of Ukrainians in occupied territories instead of the wild-eyed zealots of yore.
 
The Don said:
The units are still in the front line and they're still recruiting "meat" for the grinder though increasingly it's enforced impressment of Ukrainians in occupied territories instead of the wild-eyed zealots of yore.
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Remember back in September and October when it was being reported, even by pro-kremlin souces, that Russian vatniks from ethnicly Russian areas were being fed to the meat grinder without equipment or training? Those units were the "Donbas militia groups". The simple fact of the matter is that, in common of a significant percentages of Russian forces which started the war, these units only exist on paper these days, with at most a few headquarters officers left.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
It's gone well beyond that point at this stage, they haven't go the manpower, forces or equipment to materially shift the front lines by this stage. If by some miracle they got 2,000 fully upgraded T-90's, they can't use them because they've ground up any soldier with tank training in infantry assault brigades.
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Same for special forces.
 
Gulliver Foyle said:
1) They no longer have much by way of accurate artillery. 2) They never had an officer corps capable of using artillery effectively, hence why they are using what little relatively accurate munitions on civilian targets and why Ukrainian counter barrages are so successful. 3) They don't have the industrial capacity to replace the shells they are using, never mind the barrels they've worn out.

Remember, this is a country that went from lobbing 50,000 shells a day at war's start to 5,000 a day at best righ now.
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All absolutely true and yet the headline bullets from yesterday's ISW assessment of the war are as follows:


  • Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov credited Western security assistance for empowering Ukrainian forces to liberate half of the territory that Russia occupied since February 24, 2022.
    Russian forces conducted a notably large series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 5 to 6.
    Russian President Vladimir Putin traveled to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia to meet with UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman in a series of bilateral meetings on December 6.
    Russian oil revenues continue to increase due to a concerted Russian effort to skirt the G7 price cap on Russian crude oil and petroleum products.
    Russian society appears interested in discussing the outcome of the war in Ukraine despite the Kremlin’s increasing aversion to more in-depth public discussions of the war.
    Unspecified actors killed former pro-Russian Ukrainian Verkhovna Rada deputy Ilya Kiva in Moscow Oblast on December 6.
    Moscow’s 2nd Western Military District Court convicted two Russian air defense officers for negligence for failing to prevent a Ukrainian strike on Russian territory in April 2022, likely to set an example to improve discipline across the Russian military.
    Russian officials are reportedly attempting to funnel migrants who have ended up in Russia due to Russia’s failed hybrid war tactics on the Russian-Finnish border into ongoing force generation efforts.
    Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
    The Russian State Duma will reportedly consider a bill allowing Russian conscripts to serve in the Federal Security Service’s (FSB) Border Service.
    Ukrainian partisans may have conducted an attack in occupied Luhansk City on December 6 that killed Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) People’s Council Deputy Oleg Popov.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-december-6-2023

Which sounds a lot like the Russians continuing their military campaign whilst at the same time engaging in (apparently successful) diplomatic activity with countries which are supposed to be allied to the West and that the finance tap for the war is not only not being cut off, it's expanding thanks to countries quite happy to buy Russian oil.

Yes, Russia aren't winning but they seem to be settling into a lengthy, and well funded, war of attrition. I hope that the West in general (and the US in particular) continue their support for Ukraine. A Trump victory in 2024 would IMO severely threaten Ukraine's ability to wage war.
 
Russia is advancing (if slowly) in Avdivka, holding in Bakhmut, holding on the left bank near Kherson. They might not be winning, but they are still better off than Ukraine.
 
The Don said:
I hope that the West in general (and the US in particular) continue their support for Ukraine. A Trump victory in 2024 would IMO severely threaten Ukraine's ability to wage war.
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It could happen due to inaction from Congress long before then!

I'm assuming that what will happen is that they'll be in deadlock right up to the last minute, then pass something. It's happened with other things like the debt ceiling. Even so, it's a signal that support for Ukraine is tenuous.
 
And yet, some here seem to think it is close to treasonous to suggest that Russia could still.
 
steenkh said:
And yet, some here seem to think it is close to treasonous to suggest that Russia could still.
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Could still what?

Ukraine was always the underdog in this fight. Their stated victory condition is the restoration of all Ukrainian territory, including Crimea. This is a very challenging goal, and one they are very much not guaranteed to achieve, no matter how badly Russia fails at their own goals.

However, Russia's own victory conditions have also not been met, and for the most part can no longer be met. Russia has failed on several strategic axes, setting itself back in ways that will be very difficult and time-consuming to recover from.

We're in a context where Ukraine may not win their war, but Russia has already lost theirs. And it's in this context that The Don parrots vatnik propaganda about Russia winning.
 
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I saw this today. Pretty good and objective look from a solidly pro-Ukrainian source.

Kyiv Post Analysis: What the Washington Post Miss about Ukraine's Offensive.

From our perspective, the Washington Post identifies plenty of important issues, for the most part quite accurately. (We’ve placed a bullet list at the bottom of this article.)

But to us here in Kyiv, one shortfall, far more significant than any of the others, leaped out at us: Combat team training in the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU).
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...advocates of the AFU offensive neglected the absolutely critical necessity that a combat formation of more than 100 and less than 1,500 men all be practiced, and for months, as a single unit before being committed to a major attack against a competent opponent.
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The 47th Brigade was formed in early 2023. It started receiving its tanks and infantry fighting vehicles in February. It only began training with most of its personnel and equipment in March, and in a limited way. It was thrown into full-on conventional war in early June, as a completely unseasoned fighting formation.

An AFU analogy heard more than once by Kyiv Post reporters points out that the difference in performance between a pickup team of football players on the beach, and the same athletes once practiced for several months together under a coaching staff with clear goals and enough resources to train field execution, is massive – and that football isn’t played under artillery and small arms fire.
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The Washington Post’s main points and reasons for failure:

  • After due deliberation Washington saw a mid-April launch for the AFU offensive as reasonable.
  • As the launch day approached, the AFU dragged its feet, without good reason, on actually kicking off the attacks.
  • The US elite felt the AFU had sufficient tools and training to overcome Russian defenses in a frontal attack.
  • US officials validated that confidence with table-top and wargaming sessions with Ukrainian military leaders, which turned out to be insufficiently realistic.
  • US planners assumed heavy losses inflicted on Russian forces would lead to a greater collapse of Russian defenses, when in fact Russian soldiers turned out to be resilient and able to accept severe casualties.
  • Implicit in the US optimism was that a ground offensive using “Western” tactics and equipment would succeed, without air superiority.
  • Pentagon failure to acknowledge the AFU would have insufficient ammunition to develop massive artillery fires necessary to make an offensive successful, was a key omission.
  • US military and political leaders were as a result over-optimistic about AFU offensive capacity, and US intelligence, which was more pessimistic, probably should have been believed.
  • There was pressure on the AFU to launch the offensive, notwithstanding the fact that internal White House briefings in April considered the offensive unlikely to deliver big results.
  • AFU poor maintenance was one reason some Western weapons failed
  • AFU leadership’s unwillingness to stick to days and days of frontal assaults
  • AFU failure to conduct sufficient ground reconnaissance
  • AFU selection of three axes instead of a single thrust point for the offensive
  • Poor AFU troops skills at breaching fortifications
  • Poor AFU small-unit leadership
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A note from me: Russia is dusting off some cold-war strategy and getting its allies to stir things up. Korea, Guyana, Gaza. All enough to divert ammo deliveries from going to Ukraine, instead shipping towards those areas or at least suspend donations from those areas to Ukraine. Plus a nice bit of labor union action in Poland cutting off deliveries to Ukraine. Ukraine is looking at going into a period of ammo-starvation.

I'm guessing that things won't change much until after the U.S. election. Just more horrible grind. :(
 
steenkh said:
… could still win.

Stupid computer …
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Could still win what? The demilitarization of Ukraine? Unfettered access to Ukraine's natural resources? The forestalling of NATO expansion in Russia's sphere? The accession of Ukraine to western Europe? The freedom of Sevastopol and the Black Sea?

Name one strategic goal Russia might yet still win, by continuing to waste lives and equipment it cannot spare, on fruitless meat-grinder operations in Ukraine.
 
crescent said:
I saw this today. Pretty good and objective look from a solidly pro-Ukrainian source.

Kyiv Post Analysis: What the Washington Post Miss about Ukraine's Offensive.







A note from me: Russia is dusting off some cold-war strategy and getting its allies to stir things up. Korea, Guyana, Gaza. All enough to divert ammo deliveries from going to Ukraine, instead shipping towards those areas or at least suspend donations from those areas to Ukraine. Plus a nice bit of labor union action in Poland cutting off deliveries to Ukraine. Ukraine is looking at going into a period of ammo-starvation.

I'm guessing that things won't change much until after the U.S. election. Just more horrible grind. :(
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Days and days of frontal attacks = high casualties.
Not enough artillery ammo = strong Russian defences.
AFU poor maintenance was one reason some Western weapons failed = a task already identified as impossible. The numerous variety of weapons provided means systematic maintenance would be impossible.

Mines everywhere.
Russian drone technology has superior numbers.
 
theprestige said:
Could still win what? The demilitarization of Ukraine? Unfettered access to Ukraine's natural resources? The forestalling of NATO expansion in Russia's sphere? The accession of Ukraine to western Europe? The freedom of Sevastopol and the Black Sea?

Name one strategic goal Russia might yet still win, by continuing to waste lives and equipment it cannot spare, on fruitless meat-grinder operations in Ukraine.
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It can achieve demilitarization. Probably not access to all natural resources, but certainly to some. It can't block NATO expansion, but it can prevent Ukraine from joining. By simply turning Ukraine into ruble. Sevastopol and Black Sea are certainly achievable.

And they don't need to strange strategies at all. What they do is enough to achieve all that. All they need is Ukraine to collapse. And it can happen.

Ukraine is much less prone to inner turmoil than Russia, as it's not dictatorship. It's much closer to running out of men than Russia. It has parity in equipment, or is even better off .. but all that is dependent on foreign help. It can dry up overnight.

And it's all connected. If there is not clear unity in leadership .. western powers might not be so eager to send help. If they run of men, or equipment, differences in opinions on how to lead the country my arise. One can lead to another, and it can collapse in exactly the way Russia hoped it will when they started.

Also Ukraine is not attacking Russia itself .. only Russians in Ukraine. What if Russia simply pulls the soldiers back to Russia, and keeps sending 100 missiles over the border every day ? How do you win against that ?

The war is not over. So it's not won.
 
theprestige said:
Could still win what? The demilitarization of Ukraine? Unfettered access to Ukraine's natural resources? The forestalling of NATO expansion in Russia's sphere? The accession of Ukraine to western Europe? The freedom of Sevastopol and the Black Sea?

Name one strategic goal Russia might yet still win, by continuing to waste lives and equipment it cannot spare, on fruitless meat-grinder operations in Ukraine.
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All of them, of course. Without Western’s arsenal, it could become a matter of population size in the coming slugfest, and Putin would not care if he will lose a million soldiers in the attempt.

It has been said several times that Russia has lost the war, but they really have only lost one battle after another, or won Pyrrhic victories - although a Pyrrhic victory is a victory that you cannot afford to repeat, but it seems that Russia can in fact afford them.
 
Russia doesn't care if it can afford them. They just must not loose. Or admit weakness. They will die, die, die and the last one will press the big red button. Russia as it is cannot be beaten. It must change. And if it does, it will stop the war by itself.
 
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