Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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Andy_Ross said:
I envisage a point when there's nothing left to send. It's all very well saying they potentially have millions of men if they strip the population, but they can't properly supply the ones they have in the field now. Equipment wears out and gets lost to enemy action, it has to be replaced just to maintain the current force. How long do you think even basic stuff like uniforms and boots last in the field? New men need new equipment on top of the stuff that needs replacing.

As to training in the field? That's a joke.
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If all you're expected to do is die, how hard can the lessons be?
 
Mike! said:
If all you're expected to do is die, how hard can the lessons be?
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The Don believes this is how Moscow wins wars. By sending untrained men to die in pointless assaults. That's what they were doing at the beginning of Enemy at the Gates, and at the end of the movie they won. Same thing in Ukraine.
 
Andy_Ross said:
As we know Enemy at the Gates is largely mythology.
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That's right. It was supposed to be a story, not a blueprint for Putin's General Staff!

Russia appears to want to keep going. Meanwhile, Congress can't get new money approved for Ukraine (nor effectively govern, for that matter, but that's a different thread).

Putin wins if the West gets exhausted first. The Don is not being overly pessimistic, just commenting on what's acutally happend.
 
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To the "that's what Russia is doing now" people. How's that working out for them? Zerg rushing only gets you so far, it's why even video game strategists give up on it. It never works and that's exactly what's being claimed WILL work for Russia. The troops will continue to have less and less experience, less and less usable equipment, less and less desire to charge into war after seeing a field of all their old countrymen dead in front of them. All of this mentioned by others in this thread. Saying, "that's what they're doing now!" in the middle Russia throwing everything at this war and getting next to nothing isn't exactly worrisome.
 
theprestige said:
The Don believes this is how Moscow wins wars. By sending untrained men to die in pointless assaults. That's what they were doing at the beginning of Enemy at the Gates, and at the end of the movie they won. Same thing in Ukraine.
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I don't believe it's how they win wars, I believe it's how they fight them.

I also believe it's how they tell the Russian population how they win wars.

The Russian population have been told that they're in a similarly precarious position as they were during the Great Patriotic War. The forces of Fascism are poised to destroy Russia and enslave her population. In the face of this threat, they're expected to make the same sacrifices as during the Great Patriotic War and if they do, they'll achieve the same result - a glorious victory which confirms them as a global superpower. :rolleyes:

If they buy this then the Russian people will be prepared to sacrifice millions of their children should the need arise
 
Andy_Ross said:
I envisage a point when there's nothing left to send. It's all very well saying they potentially have millions of men if they strip the population, but they can't properly supply the ones they have in the field now. Equipment wears out and gets lost to enemy action, it has to be replaced just to maintain the current force. How long do you think even basic stuff like uniforms and boots last in the field? New men need new equipment on top of the stuff that needs replacing.

As to training in the field? That's a joke.
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They'll do what they did with the Donbas militias, make it the individuals' responsibility (or small groups) to outfit and supply themselves. Communities can feel that they're contributing by raising money and supplying equipment for their brave lads at the front.

If they're underequipped then it's the people's fault for not trying hard enough, not the Russian Army and certainly not the Russian state.
 
plague311 said:
To the "that's what Russia is doing now" people. How's that working out for them? ...
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It's not working for them. At all. That's not my point.

middle Russia throwing everything at this war and getting next to nothing isn't exactly worrisome.
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It should be very worrisome. Strategically, they were defeated almost two years ago, but they still haven't admitted it! They just. aren't. leaving.

"How many times do I have to kill the same stinking panda!?"
 
plague311 said:
To the "that's what Russia is doing now" people. How's that working out for them? Zerg rushing only gets you so far, it's why even video game strategists give up on it. It never works and that's exactly what's being claimed WILL work for Russia. The troops will continue to have less and less experience, less and less usable equipment, less and less desire to charge into war after seeing a field of all their old countrymen dead in front of them. All of this mentioned by others in this thread. Saying, "that's what they're doing now!" in the middle Russia throwing everything at this war and getting next to nothing isn't exactly worrisome.
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It depends on whether they can outlast Ukraine's Western supporters' desire to continue to support them.

If President Trump is elected next year then the USA could very well withdraw support - they could even roll back sanctions. :mad:
 
The Don said:
They'll do what they did with the Donbas militias, make it the individuals' responsibility (or small groups) to outfit and supply themselves. Communities can feel that they're contributing by raising money and supplying equipment for their brave lads at the front.

If they're underequipped then it's the people's fault for not trying hard enough, not the Russian Army and certainly not the Russian state.
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Even if you were fed a constant stream of propaganda, would you fight an equipped professional army if you've got literally no equipment? What if there's 30 of you and you've got 3 sets of armour and 8 rifles between you? Would you want to fight even a much smaller group that are fully equipped?

I wouldn't. That's called "suicide".

Russia may have millions of potential soldiers. They do not have infinite reserves of equipment.
 
MarkCorrigan said:
Even if you were fed a constant stream of propaganda, would you fight an equipped professional army if you've got literally no equipment? What if there's 30 of you and you've got 3 sets of armour and 8 rifles between you? Would you want to fight even a much smaller group that are fully equipped?

I wouldn't. That's called "suicide".

Russia may have millions of potential soldiers. They do not have infinite reserves of equipment.
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I wouldn't fight under those circumstances but I'm not the target audience.

History is full of examples of groups fighting insurmountable odds. If they're on our side then they're brave patriots, if not then they're crazy zealots. Russia (or more accurately the Soviet Union, but Russia has appropriated that history) has a comparatively recent example of sacrificing millions to protect Mother Russia and defeat Fascism. They are being told that this is the same situation, whether they believe it is another matter.

Until and unless Putin chooses to throw in the towel then young Russians will continue to be fed into the meat grinder. Whether they're prepared to fight may be moot if they're not given a choice.
 
MarkCorrigan said:
I wouldn't. That's called "suicide".
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You're not Russia.

Russia may have millions of potential soldiers. They do not have infinite reserves of equipment.
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It may not matter.

...

Why do I take this tone? Is there any reasonable path to Russia taking down NATO and single-handedly force a new world order? No, but Ukraine is going to continue to suffer. We, living in the West, have to advocate for our governments to continue to support them with all the weapons and training they need. We need to bolster our own defences (for some reason, my country is actually making defence cuts?! @#4%! :i: :curse). We have to keep talking and voting! We should support tax freezes (or even increases). Acknowledging what Russia is doing isn't pessimisim. It's a call to action!
 
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The Don said:
Until and unless Putin chooses to throw in the towel then young Russians will continue to be fed into the meat grinder. Whether they're prepared to fight may be moot if they're not given a choice.
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When you give one man a gun and he doesn't want to fight, you can kill him easily enough if he refuses. So in that sense he doesn't have much choice but to fight.

When you give an entire army guns and they all don't want to fight, you can't kill them all. They can kill you. Collectively, they do have a choice. There's a limit to how much you can force people to fight, and when governments exceed that limit, they fall.

I don't know how close Russia is to that limit. The danger to Putin is that, while I'm sure he knows more than me, he cannot know with certainty either.

ETA: and it's worth noting that Russia already exceeded that limit with Wagner. And they found themselves seemingly powerless to put down that mutiny by force.
 
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Ziggurat said:
When you give one man a gun and he doesn't want to fight, you can kill him easily enough if he refuses. So in that sense he doesn't have much choice but to fight.

When you give an entire army guns and they all don't want to fight, you can't kill them all. They can kill you. Collectively, they do have a choice. There's a limit to how much you can force people to fight, and when governments exceed that limit, they fall.

I don't know how close Russia is to that limit. The danger to Putin is that, while I'm sure he knows more than me, he cannot know with certainty either.

ETA: and it's worth noting that Russia already exceeded that limit with Wagner. And they found themselves seemingly powerless to put down that mutiny by force.
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Yes, this, exactly. We don't know where that point is, but there is a finite amount of suffering and dying that the Russian Army will put up with before mutinying. And that amount is vastly lower than during "The Great Patriotic War", when they were fighting an invading army who nearly reached Moscow.

So, old people that depend on nothing but the state media might think Ukraine is an existential threat. However, I have very little doubt that nearly every single soldier in Ukraine right now, knows thats a bunch of BS.
 
MarkCorrigan said:
No? Why would anyone need to when Russia is failing so spectacularly?
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Because the will to go on supporting Ukraine is petering out. The Russians just have to continue feeding in soldiers, and maintain the pressure until the West buckles under, and Ukraine is unsupported.

Or do you think Ukraine can manage without?
 
The Don said:
I don't believe it's how they win wars, I believe it's how they fight them.

I also believe it's how they tell the Russian population how they win wars.
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It's how you're telling us Moscow wins wars. It's been your constant refrain for about a year now. Russians don't win wars by maneuver battle, they win wars by attrition meat grinder. That's what you say every single time Moscow racks up another astonishing daily casualty figure with nothing to show for it. This is what works for Moscow, according to you.

Even though we keep pointing out that it's not working. And yes, we know it's what they tell their own people. I said as much, remember? When I said you're parroting vatnik propaganda?

Anyway, I'm glad you're finally coming around to the idea that this isn't working for Moscow.
 
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