Andy_Ross
Penultimate Amazing
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What will they win?
Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8
- Thread starter theprestige
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What will they win?
The right to call themselves victors, having stopped the existential threat against the Fatherland from the Nazis, having shown the little Russians their proper place, and that the huge sacrifices were not for nothing.
ETA: You may be thinking of what is best for the Russians, but I think that the only parameter that counts is what is best for Putin. This is a war he can’t afford to lose.
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Ziggurat
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If support from the west stops, they could hold on to the territory they've already seized. They have the manpower to do that much.
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
It seems pretty clear to me that Russia has already lost.
Discounting rhetoric and propaganda, some of the stated and unstated strategic goals of this invasion:
- Demilitarization of Ukraine
- Subjugation of Ukraine as a vassal state
- Installation of a puppet regime in Kyiv
- Unfettered access to Ukraine's natural resources
- The freedom of Sevastopol
- Blocking the spread of NATO
- Blocking Ukraine's entry to the EU
All of these are now off the table. Some of them permanently. In addition to these failed objectives, Russia has also suffered significant strategic losses demographically, economically, commercially, and diplomatically. These will take decades to recover from, if recovery is even possible. And these losses remain even if Ukraine fails to drive Russia out of its territory in the next few years.
Like steenkh says, Putin can say whatever he wants about having achieved victory in Ukraine, but by any important measure I think it's clear this invasion has already been a defeat for his regime and his country.
You're absolutely right but a sizeable chunk of Ukraine is under Russian occupation, some of it for coming up to 10 years with no end in sight. Ukraine has suffered major damage to its national infrastructure and contested regions are reduced to rubble.
Putin still enjoys support at home and a large proportion of non-aligned ex colonial countries are less behind the West in this conflict than they ought to be. If Putin's number one aim is staying in power then the invasion of Ukraine is doing its job and looks like it will continue to do so .
Russia has lost by any reasonable definition of losing if they were playing chess, the trouble is that they're playing Calvinball. IMO the parallel with President Trump's legal woes is striking.
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
You say I'm right, but then try to spin this as somehow still a win for Russia. It's not a win for Russia.
Putin wasn't in danger of being deposed. If anything, his position is less secure now than before he promised a 3 day special military operation and then gutted his military instead without achieving his objectives.
You're scraping the bottom of the barrel trying to come up with something you can traduce into a diplomatic win for Russia, but all you're getting is a handful of splinters.
Geostrategic positioning isn't a game with changeable rules. You either have levers of power or you don't. You've gone from an eminently reasonable "I don't think Russia is as weak as you say it is" to some completely through the looking-glass vatnik propaganda dimension where the air is pure copium and blind faith in Russian exceptionalism trumps reality on all axes. All that's left is for you to explain how The Last Ringbearer actually makes some good points.
Jack by the hedge
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I don't seem to be reading the same posts as you.
The Don isn't saying this is a win for Russia. Nor is he saying that Putin is better off now than if he hadn't started this.
From where he stands right now, Putin thinks his best move today is to keep attacking Ukraine.
What's going to change first? Is Russia going to run out of men and equipment to squander, or are Ukraine's allies going to tire of supplying it, or is Ukraine going to struggle to replace its casualties?
Sure, Putin made a colossal mistake. He has installed himself as president for life, and there was no threat to his dictatorship, but he wanted to go into history as the leader (Führer) who restored the Russian Empire to its old borders.
Instead he is saddled with a war that could threaten his leadership, and possibly even his life, if he doesn’t win it.
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
Exhibit A:
Here, he's trying to spin a less than total global diplomatic defeat as some kind of win for Russia. The truth is that Russia has lost ground diplomatically around the world. Nobody's saying that Russia has lost all the ground. The Don creates a strawman to make it seem like Russia is doing better than it actually is.
Exhibit B:
This is a much more explicit claim of winning in Ukraine. The Don imagines that Putin was at risk of being deposed, that he conceived a strategy of invading Ukraine to secure his position, and that this strategy is working.
The truth is that Putin was not in danger of a coup, that invading Ukraine for such a reason was totally gratuitous, and that botching the invasion has made his position more precarious than it was otherwise.
Even if we take the line that Putin is doing what's best for Putin rather than what's best for Russia, weakening Russia on every axis by which global power is measured is not what's best for Putin.
theprestige
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theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
That's the moment Russia lost. Ukraine has been very clear that their victory condition is the restoration of all Ukraine's sovereign territory, including Crimea. Ukraine hasn't won yet, and has very hard days ahead.
a_unique_person
Director of Hatcheries and Conditioning
Ukraine is suffering terribly and the suffering is ongoing. However, unlike Russia who has a choice about being in this war, they don't.
I know it's uncomfortable reading but many African countries aren't happy to support the West against Russia.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-64759845
The reasons are somewhat complicated. Colonialism is a major factor but it's far from being the sole reason.
Putin may not have been at risk but his approval numbers have soared since the invasion and dictators love themselves real popularity.
Ziggurat
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I'm not sure that's how they define victory. They seem to want to reclaim all their territory.
Dr.Sid
Philosopher
Don't call a win while the fight is till on. Ukraine is still fighting for their life. If they stop, Russia will be in Kyiv again. They might not have the power to occupy Ukraine, they can still give Kyiv Mariupol treatment, and go home.
And there is still the chance of them simply nuking Kyiv and going home.
theprestige
Penultimate Amazing
Again with the strawman. Nobody is saying Russia has lost all diplomatic support.
In a hilarious bit of irony, your "uncomfortable reading" opens with a claim that Russia has lost support in Africa since last year. Your idea of Russia not being worse off diplomatically is Gabon going from "pro Ukraine" to "abstain".
A dictator's approval numbers indicate real popularity?
At this point I'm having a hard time maintaining the polite fiction that you're only accidentally parroting vatnik propaganda.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
1) They no longer have much by way of accurate artillery. 2) They never had an officer corps capable of using artillery effectively, hence why they are using what little relatively accurate munitions on civilian targets and why Ukrainian counter barrages are so successful. 3) They don't have the industrial capacity to replace the shells they are using, never mind the barrels they've worn out.
Remember, this is a country that went from lobbing 50,000 shells a day at war's start to 5,000 a day at best righ now.
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