Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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The Don said:
I don't believe it's how they win wars, I believe it's how they fight them.
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theprestige said:
It's how you're telling us Moscow wins wars. It's been your constant refrain for about a year now.
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Wait. What? The Don literally just stated the position and you stated the opposite.

We KNOW the Russians are terrible, stupid, and incompetent! We KNOW the Russians have lost on strategic level! We KNOW that they're willing to kill untold numbers of their own citizens for a war against the nebulous West (you know, who are all overrun by gays and things)!

The RUSSIANS ARE NOT WINNING!

but neither is Ukraine.

More military/financial support is required. Russia has to beaten until even they've understood that they've lost. Otherwise, they de facto win. I've read that's what Putin's waiting for. Ukraine has to just not win for long enough and he's good!
 
Jimbo07 said:
Wait. What? The Don literally just stated the position and you stated the opposite.
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If anything, there's a discrepancy between what The Don has been saying and what he's now telling us he actually believes.

We all know what Moscow is doing. The Don has been telling us it's working, or will work. I have yet to see him say it's not working. I don't think he will say that. He'll say that maneuver warfare doesn't work for Moscow, but he'll never say that this attritional meatgrinder isn't working either. So I don't believe him when he says it's not how Moscow wins wars. Because for the past year he's been saying it's how Moscow is winning this one.
 
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theprestige said:
We all know what Moscow is doing. The Don has been telling us it's working, or will work. I have yet to see him say it's not working. I don't think he will say that. He'll say that maneuver warfare doesn't work for Moscow, but he'll never say that this attritional meatgrinder isn't working either. So
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I think it depends partly on what you mean by working.

By any Western (and I'll admit my bias by saying "rational") standard, what Russia is doing is not working. But is it working by some twisted Russian standard?

I've never interpreted the Don's posts to be overtly saying that Russia is winning. It's just that Ukraine isn't, either. There have been some here who have claimed that the collapse of the Russian military will be slow then fast. We've been watching the slow unfold, surely and steadily, over the last two years, but we're still waiting for the fast!
 
Jimbo07 said:
I think it depends partly on what you mean by working.

By any Western (and I'll admit my bias by saying "rational") standard, what Russia is doing is not working. But is it working by some twisted Russian standard?

I've never interpreted the Don's posts to be overtly saying that Russia is winning. It's just that Ukraine isn't, either. There have been some here who have claimed that the collapse of the Russian military will be slow then fast. We've been watching the slow unfold, surely and steadily, over the last two years, but we're still waiting for the fast!
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Overt statements aren't the only way to say something. And The Don has very much been saying for about a year now that what Moscow is doing is what works for Moscow and is working for Moscow in Ukraine. If you don't see it that way, okay. But that's how I see it.
 
Got to admit, I'm with theprestige, which doesn't happen too often. :D

I don't think even Moscow thinks that what they're doing is effective or likely to win, I think they're just trying to keep pushing the meatgrinder button until their plants allies in the West get into power and strip Ukraine's funding.
 
theprestige said:
We know what Moscow is trying to do. It seems pretty obvious that at this point they lack the numbers and the skill to actually achieve results that way. Zeno's advance is not a path to victory.
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Moscow apologists on YouTube say a war of attrition will be won by Moscow. As if it's a normal military strategy they planned for all along.
 
MarkCorrigan said:
Got to admit, I'm with theprestige, which doesn't happen too often. :D

I don't think even Moscow thinks that what they're doing is effective or likely to win, I think they're just trying to keep pushing the meatgrinder button until their plants allies in the West get into power and strip Ukraine's funding.
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I don't think they think. But for sure they won't stop.
 
Dr.Sid said:
I don't think they think. But for sure they won't stop.
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It's like zombies in a zombie movie. They can never win, because they're doomed to be zombies forever if they kill all the heroes/saviours/etc. At the same time though, they just keep coming and the heroes' outcome is doubtful. In that analogy, it's currently an open question as to whether Ukraine has enough plot armour to make it to the last act.
 
I mean, Ukraine can still lose this. They're the absolute underdog in this fight, and losing this is their default outcome. But I think at this point it's pretty clear that Moscow won't win it, even if they continue the occupation for a while longer. In fact, when measuring against their strategic objectives, I think it's pretty clear that Moscow has already lost. What they're clawing for now are consolation prizes.
 
As far as I can tell from the coverage in my Danish newspaper, the Russians are no longer advocating a peace where they get to keep the parts of Ukraine that they hold, but they are smelling blood now that the support for Ukraine is wavering.

TV-hosts and fanatics are thinking that once the US republicans stop US support, and the EU stop theirs - or if just one of them stop supporting, then they can annihilate all of Ukraine.

In the EU one government after another is falling to right-wing populists who want Ukraine to lose (only the nations bordering Russia want to go on - but as we see in the protests in Poland, only if it doesn’t wreck their own economy).
 
Dr.Sid said:
They have 143 million citizens, about half of them are men, about half of them are capable of fighting (or at least being moved to the front to die). Even if half of those run abroad that's still ten millions.
And then you have women, who still did very little dying for the motherland.
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Absolute numbers don't tell the story.

If you were a boy born in 1923 in the USSR, your chance of making it to 1946 was about one third. The "Great Patriotic War" chewed up vast numbers of Russians, disproportionately, young, fit, economically active Russians who were supposed to be making the next generation. The echos of that catastrophe are still visible today in Russia's population pyramid. Unfortunately, this war coincides with one of the dips caused by WW2.

Russia was in a demographic crisis before the war started with deaths exceeding births by almost two times. The Ukraine war is only going to make that worse since it disproportionately kills young men.

They may have 143 million people, but a lot of those people cannot be sent to a war because they are no longer fit enough, or too young. The people that make the best soldiers are also the people in the best place to increase the population.

Of course that doesn't mean Russia can't find the people to send to the front line. They can, but it is deepening their population crisis at the same time.

Most of the above also applies to Ukraine and for pretty much the same reasons.
 
Jimbo07 said:
It's not working for them. At all. That's not my point.



It should be very worrisome. Strategically, they were defeated almost two years ago, but they still haven't admitted it! They just. aren't. leaving.

"How many times do I have to kill the same stinking panda!?"
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They are not defeated strategically. They still hold substantial ground in Ukraine and it doesn't look like they are going to get pushed out any time soon.
 
theprestige said:
I mean, Ukraine can still lose this. They're the absolute underdog in this fight, and losing this is their default outcome. But I think at this point it's pretty clear that Moscow won't win it, even if they continue the occupation for a while longer. In fact, when measuring against their strategic objectives, I think it's pretty clear that Moscow has already lost. What they're clawing for now are consolation prizes.
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Suppose next year pans out pretty much the same as this year and the front lines only move a few kilometres one way or another. Then suppose newly elected president Tr*mp withdraws all support from Ukraine on 21st January 2025.

I'm not saying the above scenario will happen, but it's plausible. I would argue that, if it does play out like that, Russia will win in Ukraine. It's certainly not clear to me that Russia won't win.
 
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