Cont: The Russian Invasion of Ukraine part 8

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Also read this morning that Putin is urging Russians to have 'up to 8 children'...now that may get across the message to ordinary Russians that things aren't going well.
 
Ethan Thane Athen said:
Also read this morning that Putin is urging Russians to have 'up to 8 children'...now that may get across the message to ordinary Russians that things aren't going well.
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Lots of children and young adults in Gaza looking for good homes right now. Maybe Putin can offer them a place of refuge in Russia. If he succeeds, he could send the kidnapped Ukrainian kids back home!
 
Ethan Thane Athen said:
Also read this morning that Putin is urging Russians to have 'up to 8 children'...now that may get across the message to ordinary Russians that things aren't going well.
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This is actually old news, because Putin has for a long time tried to promote an increase in the ethnic Russian population. The Russians are scared that one day they may not make up the majority population in Russia.

He has made various attempts to keep women at home to care for the children, and Russia is giving cash bonuses to women who get more children.

Funnily, Hitler also had the same policies.

I am not sure, but I think it was Russia where some reactionary politicians are demanding that women should be discouraged from higher educations, because it is well-known that women get fewer children, the more educated they are. Just ask the
Talibans,
 
Russian army advancing 'in all directions' in Ukraine - Moscow

Russia's army is advancing "in all directions" in Ukraine, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed on Friday.

His comments come as Russian forces ramp up pressure on the eastern front, following Kyiv's largely unsuccessful summer counteroffensive.

“Our military is acting with competence and determination, occupying a more favourable position, and expanding its zones of control in all directions,” said Shoigu.

Combat abilities of Ukraine were "significantly reduced" after their counteroffensive, he added.
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https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/01/russian-army-advancing-in-all-directions-in-ukraine-moscow
 
Andy_Ross said:
Russian army advancing 'in all directions' in Ukraine - Moscow



https://www.euronews.com/2023/12/01/russian-army-advancing-in-all-directions-in-ukraine-moscow
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At lightning speed, at that!

A little more seriously, it's been Russia's "turn" to go on the offensive for a while now and they've been doing so while incurring very disproportionate losses and making painfully slow gains. Potentially ratios of notably more than 10:1 near Avdiivka, for example. Losses that The Don would likely be inspired to remind us that Russia's willing to accept, of course, but losses that do keep becoming increasingly costly for Russia even if Russia's willing to accept them. Besides the obvious, a huge chunk of Russia's military budget is apparently being spent just to attract more bodies for the meat grinders.
 
Aridas said:
At lightning speed, at that!

A little more seriously, it's been Russia's "turn" to go on the offensive for a while now and they've been doing so while incurring very disproportionate losses and making painfully slow gains. Potentially ratios of notably more than 10:1 near Avdiivka, for example. Losses that The Don would likely be inspired to remind us that Russia's willing to accept, of course, but losses that do keep becoming increasingly costly for Russia even if Russia's willing to accept them. Besides the obvious, a huge chunk of Russia's military budget is apparently being spent just to attract more bodies for the meat grinders.
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I guess time will tell whether Russia can keep up the pressure on multiple fronts or whether a shortage of men and/or materiel will force them to suspend their attempts to advance.
 
Recent reports are that Moscow has in fact reduced the pressure on multiple fronts. Marching men pointlessly into killzones isn't the same as massed infantry assaults on a wide front, reinforcing success and abandoning failure. They both look like meatgrinders, but only the latter actually constitutes winning. It's pretty obvious that while Moscow still has enough warm bodies to pretend they haven't already lost, they're far short of the numbers they need to win this way.
 
As near as I can tell, the only viable reasoning behind any current Russian offensive action is to try and bait Ukraine into conducting offensive operations in cities. It is the only viable reason I can think of for their efforts in east currently focusing on Adviivka.

Cities are the great equalizer between armies. A not great defender can make it very difficult for a better trained and well equipped attacker. A serious offensive effort in a city would require a concentration of force that would draw away troops needed to hold the line elsewhere. Since Ukraine still has a fraction of the men that Russia does, Getting Ukraine to attack in a city would at least partly alter the balance for the Russians everywhere else.

The Ukrainians have not taken the bait for this. Bakmhut remains in Russian hands largely because what it would likely cost to re-take it. For Ukraine, economy of force comes before all other principles of war.

For Russia, they need to find a way to get Ukraine to make the effort to take cities. They are trying to create a dilemma for Ukraine where either they go after the cities or they watch the Russians sit endlessly on their land. If they can hang on long enough they might see Ukraine lose support.
 
Doubt said:
For Russia, they need to find a way to get Ukraine to make the effort to take cities.
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Isn't this exactly what Ukraine has been doing to Russia? Apparently Russia has taken a beating trying to take these otherwise nothing cities. It's a gamble on the long game though. You have to believe that you can degrade Russia's forces before they can get their industry and mobilization up.
 
Jimbo07 said:
Isn't this exactly what Ukraine has been doing to Russia? Apparently Russia has taken a beating trying to take these otherwise nothing cities. It's a gamble on the long game though. You have to believe that you can degrade Russia's forces before they can get their industry and mobilization up.
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Yes. But the manpower cost to Russia is not as bad as it is for Ukraine. Russia can afford the casualties to take cites. Ukraine cannot. Ukraine's best way to deal with cities is to bypass them. But since they have not been able to pull off any more thunder runs this summer, bypassing becomes harder.
 
In a case of poetic justice, a Russian general dies from a mine laid by Russians. Which is apparently a big problem for Russians trying to counter-attack the Ukrainian bridge-head in the south. Apparently nobody knows where the previous troops laid the mines, and Russian soldiers are exploding left and right on their own minefields.
 
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More details on the operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the Baikal-Amur railway line.

The first freight train exploded directly in the Severomuysky Tunnel blocking it completely, the Russians began to use a detour route going via a older, longer alternative route over the so-called 'Devil's Bridge', to keep things moving.
This is what the SSU anticipated and when the second train was passing along the high 35-metre bridge, they activated the explosive devices that were planted in it.

According to Russian Telegram channels, six fuel tankers were on fire after the explosion. A fire train was needed to extinguish it.

Quote from SSU spokesman
Russian special services should get used to the fact that our people are everywhere. Even in distant Buryatia.
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a_unique_person said:
Each of those dead is part of a family and community. If it is true that the cannon fodder comes mainly from Russia's ethnic regions Putin could be facing serious internal trouble.
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Not really. If 300k didn't cause an upraising, 500 won't either. Russians don't believe those numbers anyway. They are the best. Putin is the best. They are winning. Some non patriots died like dogs. Patriots obviously only did what they were supposed to do.
We will se much larger disruption to civil life before we will se disruption of military machine.
 
Andy_Ross said:
More details on the operation by the Security Service of Ukraine (SSU) on the Baikal-Amur railway line.

The first freight train exploded directly in the Severomuysky Tunnel blocking it completely, the Russians began to use a detour route going via a older, longer alternative route over the so-called 'Devil's Bridge', to keep things moving.
This is what the SSU anticipated and when the second train was passing along the high 35-metre bridge, they activated the explosive devices that were planted in it.

According to Russian Telegram channels, six fuel tankers were on fire after the explosion. A fire train was needed to extinguish it.

Quote from SSU spokesman
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There are only two rail links for Russia to the far east. BAM and the trans Siberian. And the trans Siberian is geared toward passenger traffic.

This is a huge deal, and greatly under reported. The saboteurs have not been caught. So, either Russia extends resources guarding their infrastructure, or this keeps happening.
 
a_unique_person said:
Each of those dead is part of a family and community. If it is true that the cannon fodder comes mainly from Russia's ethnic regions Putin could be facing serious internal trouble.
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I think Putin is working on the principle that they are not proper Russians so it's getting rid of a potential problem.

And in fact it might end up being a genocide against some.og those groups if they conscript enough young men (and potentially then women) from those ethnic groups.
 
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