Cont: General UK Politics IV - Rishi reprise
- Thread starter Gulliver Foyle
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gypsyjackson
Master Poster
I used to live in South Cambs - reliably Tory, even during the Blair years, which is why I was surprised by this. I see since Brexit it has gone Lib Dem, falling from 36 Tory councillors in 2016 to 8 in 2022. I wonder if that will translate into a first parliamentary electoral loss for the Tories since 1945.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
I'm in Henley, Tory since the 1920's (and that was a one off win by the Liberals) but even I have some hope next time.
Pixel42
Schrödinger's cat
Boundaries have been redrawn where I live, Malmesbury is now part of the new South Cotswold constituency rather than the (solidly Tory) North Wiltshire one. According to the LibDem newsletter that occasionally drops through my letter box there's a good chance they can win it. But it used to say the same about North Wiltshire, even though they never had a chance.
I'm next door in Wokingham, and the council there recently went from Tory to no overall control, with the LibDems having the largest number of seats, and my ward is Labour. Redwood had a majority of less than 8,000 at the last General Election. It wouldn't take a huge swing for the LibDems to win. https://members.parliament.uk/member/14/electionresult
The previous 4 posts show a hollowing out of the Tory vote, even in its heartland.
And consistent with what I saw with my friends in the South East.
I do think that Starmer's support is a bit fragile though
And consistent with what I saw with my friends in the South East.
I do think that Starmer's support is a bit fragile though
I'd say it hardly matters. The desire to get the Tories out is very strong and Tory voters seem disillusioned.
Meanwhile, my constituency is the High Peak.
|1987|45.7|28.8|25.6||
|1992|46.0|37.9|14.8||
|1997|35.5|50.8|11.2||
|2001|37.3|46.6|16.1||
|2005|39.6|38.2|20.0|2.2|
|2010|40.9|31.6|21.8|3.4|
|2015|45.0|35.3|4.7|11.0|
|2017|45.4|49.7|5.0||
|2019|45.9|44.8|5.1|2.2|
So pretty good bellwether
gypsyjackson
Master Poster
I have only ever voted once in a non-safe seat (Croydon, 2017, when May’s chief of staff Gavin Barwell was ousted by Labour). Do you feel more listened to by your MP being in a marginal?
I did, but in the last year, I think Robert Largan has resigned himself to losing so DGAF anymore.
gypsyjackson
Master Poster
Most of the ones in that position seem to be leaving the sinking ship…
I think the Tory spokesman I heard quoted recently does have a minor point, in that a large part of the swing is Tory voters abstaining rather than them changing their vote, which means they could still be mobilised in the right circumstances.
Gulliver Foyle
Philosopher
Because a) some people believe you should do the right thing, not the expedient thing thing and b) mindlessly supporting Israel isn't all that popular in the UK.
I'm in the Monmouth constituency. Sadly our Tory MP is certain to be re-elected.
Nil desperandum! Lab + LibDem combined about match him, add in tactical voting and a goodly swing and you never know.
Our MP seems to be disliked by everyone, Joy Morrissey, but she'll be voted back in because she has a blue ribbon.
Or more likely c) some version of pointless ideological purity in the face of all common sense.
SteveAitch
Master Poster
Ours is a complete arse - Kwasi Kwarteng - but we appear to be dead-horse-with-a-blue-rosette territory.
P.J. Denyer
Penultimate Amazing
In Henley a turnip with blue rosette would be elected. Unfortunately many of the recent candidates haven't been as good a representative as the turnip would have been.
Perhaps the lettuce should stand?
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