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The sinking of MS Estonia: Case Reopened Part VII

The great thing about this interminable thread is searching back to check on some detail and stumbling on some comedy gem you had quite forgotten.

Recent old favourites include (paraphrased);
V: See here my source says X, which is much more detail than the JAIC ever provided.
Other: That's literally quoting the JAIC report page Y.
V: See how reliably my source quotes the JAIC.
 
Because it's a desperate little bolt-hole Vixen can retreat to whenever the going gets tough? i.e. just about with every exchange here.

And the truth will never prevail. Vixen conceded that Kari Lehtola (a lawyer by training) may not know the right "jargon." She conceded that the Finnish word may mean something other than "tune" in English. But these concessions ever only matter in the moment, and then are quickly forgotten.

With some other conspiracy theorists it's helpful to determine how they got the wrong idea. It's clear by now that Vixen gets the wrong idea because she wants to. She wants to see how far she can push that wrong idea, even if she has to twist and bend it from day to day, and play loosely with truth, to make the discussion go just a few more pages. Consistency is not a virtue she seems obliged to espouse. It's all about longevity.

At the time Lehtola is quoted, the EPIRBs had been recovered and tested. That he and a writer collaborated unintentionally to say something that doesn't translate into English as an accurate description is not something that's ever going to have a definite answer. So yes, it's that perfect haven of apparent fog that conspiracy theorists prefer to live in instead of the real world. Conspiracy theorists don't care about being right or wrong, and so primary sources and facts don't interest them. Conspiracy theorists care about being paid attention to, so murky secondary and tertiary sources are what they crave—along with the questionable inferences that can be drawn from them.
 
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So yes, it's that perfect haven of apparent fog that conspiracy theorists prefer to live in instead of the real world. Conspiracy theorists don't care about being right or wrong, and so primary sources and facts don't interest them. Conspiracy theorists care about being paid attention to, so murky secondary and tertiary sources are what they crave—along with the questionable inferences that can be drawn from them.


The insistence that confused early accounts are somehow more accurate than later conclusions, and that a discrepancy between the two is evidence of a cover-up, also suggests a conspiracy theory mindset.
 
About the only way we'll know what the intent of the Finnish text is would be to get at least two native Finnish speakers who are also fluent in English to give us a translation.

Ideally they'd also need to be engineers, sailors, or both. I don't speak Finnish, but I do speak several other languages, and I have to translate technical (or otherwise specialized) material between them. Very often I run into words that have common or primary meanings, but are used in specialized contexts to mean very specific things, and often not one that follows from the common meaning. In order to make an accurate translation, you have to recognize the use of a word in its specialized context, and you have to know the equivalent specialized word in the other language—even if it's not a direct dictionary translation. That is, you wouldn't translate the word that way in ordinary discourse, but it's the only correct translation in that context.

The paper Finnish-English dictionaries I've consulted give a variety of meanings for viritetty, including "tuned," meaning to adjust the frequency. But that is by no means the only definition, or even the primary definition, and the other translations are similarly contextual. Other suggested translations include "rigged" and "tweaked." You want to use these sources rather than online translations because Google Translate doesn't let you see the algorithm work. You need sources that say effectively, "Well, it could mean this in this context, or this other thing in that context." Then you use your brain to decide which is the most accurate.

But it's still all moot here because we have the devices and we know how they work. A cardinal rule of translation is that you don't use a word that can't be true in context. If you know that the context is that you can't change the frequency, then "tuned" is simply the wrong translation of viritetty—full stop. We literally don't care about ambiguity in the secondary sources. Vixen is only using them because they let her fog the question and pretend she's onto something.
 
Who cares what they wrote?

It's a standard, badly written and inaccurate newspaper story.

Why would anyone be using a newspaper story as a primary source when we have all the actual primary materials available?

Remember we went thru pages and pages of Vixen supporting how great current-to-the-event newspaper articles are because of The Times great reporting on Stalingrad thru their spies. Thats what all that was about, to lend support to her use of the one obscure newspaper article about the Estonia that supports her CT.
 
The insistence that confused early accounts are somehow more accurate than later conclusions, and that a discrepancy between the two is evidence of a cover-up, also suggests a conspiracy theory mindset.

You have to carefully characterize early reports. They usually include conjecture or misreported facts. Getting early accounts from witnesses is important because the longer you wait, the more narrative smoothing you have to deal with.

Saying that early reports are accurate and that later accounts that differ are evidence of a coverup is pure bunk. We generally get a better picture, more facts, and less conjecture later on.

Speculating early on that something went wrong with the bow visor is not entirely improper. First, if you know anything about that kind of ship, you know that's its weak point. And the witness testimony that emerged right away is consistent with that hypothesis. It's not irresponsible to say so. Second, the speculation is usually demanded by the reporter, not proffered by the expert. People want to know as soon as possible what we think went wrong. Left to themselves, the experts wouldn't be publicly speculating. The sentiment is more, "Well, if you're asking me to give my best guess right now..."

That a subsequent investigation develops evidence and confirms the early hypothesis from among others doesn't mean that it was the only one considered, that the investigation was biased by it, or that someone directed the investigation nefariously to arrive at that conclusion. The way conspiracy theories work, you'd never win anyway.
"We initially thought it might have been X, and we did a thorough examination and determined that it was, in fact X."
→
"See! There was pressure from the beginning to make it look like X even before an investigation!"

"We initially thought it was X, but after a thorough examination we determined it was Y."
→
"See! They knew immediately it was X, but the Powers That Be got to them and made them say Y!"​
The problem is with the few who behave like conspiracy theorists, not everyone else. This is why a second investigation won't silence the conspiracy theorists. They like it too much, and they'll just keep finding new ways to wallow in them no matter what the people say who know what they're talking about.
 
That a subsequent investigation develops evidence and confirms the early hypothesis from among others doesn't mean that it was the only one considered, that the investigation was biased by it, or that someone directed the investigation nefariously to arrive at that conclusion. The way conspiracy theories work, you'd never win anyway.
"We initially thought it might have been X, and we did a thorough examination and determined that it was, in fact X."
→
"See! There was pressure from the beginning to make it look like X even before an investigation!"

"We initially thought it was X, but after a thorough examination we determined it was Y."
→
"See! They knew immediately it was X, but the Powers That Be got to them and made them say Y!"​
The problem is with the few who behave like conspiracy theorists, not everyone else. This is why a second investigation won't silence the conspiracy theorists. They like it too much, and they'll just keep finding new ways to wallow in them no matter what the people say who know what they're talking about.


That's the thing about conspiracy theories: everything is evidence of the conspiracy. Even if there's no evidence whatsoever of the conspiracy, it's just evidence that the conspiracy has been covered up.
 
That's the thing about conspiracy theories: everything is evidence of the conspiracy. Even if there's no evidence whatsoever of the conspiracy, it's just evidence that the conspiracy has been covered up.

Sure, you just argue that evidence that would prove your claim must be "classified," and you get another five pages in your thread.
 

That is when IMO harmonised all of the various regulations regarding radio communications all under one header. The header being, 'GMDSS'. The only regulation that was new was the CHAPTER IV one stipulating that every ship must have a qualified, certified radio electrician to ensure GMDSS compliance.

GMDSS = Global Maritime Distress and Safety System

Ship Radio Stations
The GMDSS is an internationally recognized distress and radio communication safety system that has been in place for several decades. The GMDSS is an automated ship-to-shore and ship-to-ship system using satellites and/or terrestrial radio systems with digital selective calling technology. These systems provide safety-of-life information and communication systems that inform vessels of navigation hazards and weather conditions, and enable distress calls with pertinent location and identification information with the push of a button. The GMDSS is mandated for ships internationally by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Safety of Life at Sea Convention (SOLAS), 1974, as amended in 1988, and carries the force of an international treaty. The procedures governing use are contained in the International Telecommunication Union recommendations and in the International Radio Regulations, and also carry the force of an International Treaty.
https://www.fcc.gov/wireless/bureau...me-mobile/ship-radio-stations/global-maritime
 
If you need a productive break from the bouy stuff, this article have a gallery of over 30 high resolution photos of the raised bow ramp:

https://news.err.ee/1609042985/photos-ms-estonia-bow-ramp-raised

This guy photographed the ramp from almost every possible angle. Guess what's missing? Yup, no signs of explosives used anywhere on this structure. There is interesting damage, but it's from the bow visor yanking it open in the storm.

So if you'd like a change from bad fiction, you can look at the real key piece of evidence for yourselves. :thumbsup:

And this article details the new computer modeling of the ship impacting the bottom, and the technical challenges this modeling represented:

https://news.err.ee/1609108349/analysis-ms-estonia-wreck-damaged-after-hitting-seabed

Again, I'm sorry I bring actual science and facts into this. I'm still looking for that submarine with monster-truck tires.


As an interesting counter argument - and it is always good to see arguments from all sides - is the following:

When Margus Kurm filmed Estonia 2021, bottom samples were taken every four meters along the entire starboard side's 22 meter long damage area. All the samples showed that what looked like rocks and stones was in fact clay. However, Stockholm University's geological survey during the State Accident Commission's investigation in 2022 showed that a ridge or hard clay bank runs under Estonia. Drill samples in 2023 showed that three meters from Estonia lies a ridge. However, it runs across under Estonia, not along the 22 meter long depression. But there may be another possible explanation for the fact that at least some parts of the indentation damage correspond to the bottom. This video sequence shows what happens when a dented steel plate (think indentation on Estonia's starboard side) is pushed against the mud bottom. Now if the wreck turns and Estonia's damaged starboard side separates from the bottom, the imprint of the damage is in the mud.

If this explanation is true or to some extent true, it means that the holes were caused before Estonia sank and could thus be the cause of the rapid sinking process.
https://estoniafyndet.wordpress.com...nia-15-vattnet-som-sankte-estonia-del-1-film/
 
The accountant in me understands why in many cases existing vessels are given extra time to upgrade to comply with safety regs.

Lets say the IMO gets together and says every vessel over 300 tons must upgrade to automatic immersion activated EPIRB's.

The manufacturer: so you want us to spend millions re-tooling for this new device, and expand our output, and our suppliers of components to do the same for a huge glut in new EPIRB's and then as soon as everyone is done upgrading to the new model we have this huge new manufacturing plant sitting mostly idle?! Our ROI won't even cover the interest on the loan we'd need!

There was no "millions re-tooling for this new device"; all that was needed was an engineer to stick up a couple of brackets on either side of the bridge. Even I could do that with a drill and some screws. Fifteen minute job, if that.

As for a 'huge glut in new EPIRB's', for crying out load, the Hammar factory is in Sweden and Kannads were ten a penny.
 
Vixen, if "tuned" merely means "tested", then why did you make so much hay out of insisting that "tuned" was the correct translation? Why go to the trouble of insisting that the EPIRBs were "untuned" when what you suddenly meant all along was that that were "untested"?

Also, why am I asking?

'Tuned' was the term used by the chairman of the JAIC at the time.
 
http://www.internationalskeptics.com/forums/showpost.php?p=14177731&postcount=2800
You are here quoting Karl Lehtola as saying that the EPIRBs did not transmit a distress signal because they were not tuned on the boat and that they couldn't transmit anything untuned.

Well, which is it Vixen? Is "tuning" an EPIRB something that is done by ship's electricians on the boat, or is "tuning" just checking to see if the EPIRB can send out a signal properly?

How can you claim that Karl Lehtola have meant that the EPIRBs merely hadn't been tested when you have explicitly quoted him saying something entirely different? Do you think no-one can see you do a 180 and act like you meant something else all along when we can actually read your posts and read this thread and see what silly claims you've actually made about ship's electricians having to tune EPIRBs.

AIUI the automatic free float buoys were suspected of not emitting the right 406 mhz frequency as the satellite didn't pick up a signal. Hence the supposition they were 'untuned' for whatever reason.
 
AIUI the automatic free float buoys were suspected of not emitting the right 406 mhz frequency as the satellite didn't pick up a signal. Hence the supposition they were 'untuned' for whatever reason.
That's a possible inference from the likely meaning of the english word 'untuned' but it does not make sense in the context within which the word was used.

Nobody who knew enough about these devices that their opinion was worth anything at all would opine that the crew had omitted to tune the frequency of the transmitters.
 
There was no "millions re-tooling for this new device"; all that was needed was an engineer to stick up a couple of brackets on either side of the bridge. Even I could do that with a drill and some screws. Fifteen minute job, if that.

As for a 'huge glut in new EPIRB's', for crying out load, the Hammar factory is in Sweden and Kannads were ten a penny.

Ten a penny again.
 
They weren't automatic. They didn't emit because nobody turned them on .
 
About the only way we'll know what the intent of the Finnish text is would be to get at least two native Finnish speakers who are also fluent in English to give us a translation. If they both agree that "tuned" is the correct translation, we'd further need to determine if it means "tuned" in the common English sense of the word (e.g. tuning a piano; tuning a TV set to receive on a particular frequency) or if it's a Finnish idiom that means "to test for proper operation."

(Being a bit snarky here: as a Linux user I'd ask Linus Torvalds, but although he's Finnish his native language is Swedish.)

I can confirm it means 'tuned'.
 
'Tuned' was the term used by the chairman of the JAIC at the time.
Seriously, do you believe his opinion was that the crew had omitted the step of tuning the frequency of the EPIRB transmitters?

If you do believe he meant that, why does his opinion matter, since it is clearly wrong?
 
Who cares what they wrote?

It's a standard, badly written and inaccurate newspaper story.

Why would anyone be using a newspaper story as a primary source when we have all the actual primary materials available?

As of Jan 1995, there had been no primary materials released. The accident occurred 28 Sept 1994, just three and a half months before. The JAIC were still information gathering at that stage, with regular press conferences to 'handle expectations'.
 

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