Cont: The One Covid-19 Science and Medicine Thread Part 4

[dann]

I don't know how much gene-sequencing Japan conducts. A new variant is suspected by some commentators. Another cause of a surge in Japan in general could be this, as quoted in post 2,991: "a 4.73-fold rapid increase in just over a month since immediately after the status of COVID-19 was downgraded to “category 5,”."

In the Nordics, we saw what happened when the pandemic when all restrictions, even masking, were abandoned and the pandemic was downgraded in the winter of 2021-22, post-vaccinations:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Dec 1, 2021 --> present)

Look at Finland, Iceland and Norway, in particular:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Dec 1, 2021 --> present)
The graph looks as if the pandemic had only just begun in the fall of 2021!
I don't know if the Japanese have the same degree of trust in their (health) authorities as people in the Nordic countries, but the downgrading of COVID-19's status is probably mentioned by news sources because an impact is suspected.

 

[angrysoba]

I don't know how much gene-sequencing Japan conducts. A new variant is suspected by some commentators. Another cause of a surge in Japan in general could be this, as quoted in post 2,991: "a 4.73-fold rapid increase in just over a month since immediately after the status of COVID-19 was downgraded to “category 5,”."

In the Nordics, we saw what happened when the pandemic when all restrictions, even masking, were abandoned and the pandemic was downgraded in the winter of 2021-22, post-vaccinations:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Dec 1, 2021 --> present)

Look at Finland, Iceland and Norway, in particular:
Cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million people (Dec 1, 2021 --> present)
The graph looks as if the pandemic had only just begun in the fall of 2021!
I don't know if the Japanese have the same degree of trust in their (health) authorities as people in the Nordic countries, but the downgrading of COVID-19's status is probably mentioned by news sources because an impact is suspected.

The downgrading of Covid has led to a couple of things. There is a definite relaxation of mask wearing, although on subways etc… mask-wearing is still pretty high (about 70%? Judging by the subway I am on right now). In classrooms people are wearing masks a little less but there are still quite a few.

Almost certainly there has been a rise in Covid as a result of general relaxation of recommendations, but people still tend to wear masks at a high rate.

 

[dann]

From that link:

Imagine that - potentially fatal for the elderly, and causing a problem in a country with the world's highest median age.
Unreal.

I assume this means that The Atheist now understands that his claims about the most recent COVID-19 numbers are, to quote himself, on the level of "Utter bollocks ... idiotic article ... sensationalist idiot ... scaremonger ... OMG WTF..." because of delayed (or maybe entirely abandoned; it's hard to tell) registering and reporting of numbers as mentioned in my recent reality check of The Atheist's claims.

 

[dann]

The downgrading of Covid has led to a couple of things. There is a definite relaxation of mask wearing, although on subways etc… mask-wearing is still pretty high (about 70%? Judging by the subway I am on right now). In classrooms people are wearing masks a little less but there are still quite a few.

Almost certainly there has been a rise in Covid as a result of general relaxation of recommendations, but people still tend to wear masks at a high rate.

In the Nordics, people stopped masking up almost immediately, i.e. in the winter of 2021-22 when they were told that it was no longer mandated or even recommended to mask up, so the skyrocketing numbers immediately after didn't come as a surprise to some of us. I have mentioned in another context that it took leading Danish experts three years to realize that SARS-CoV-2 was transmitted as airborne aerosols.
Forward to spring of 2023:
Former SSI president regrets corona recommendation (Sundhedspolitisk Tidsskrift, March 7, 2023)
(SSI)

Do you know anything about people catering to tourists? Are they allowed to wear face masks? Many restaurant owners may frown upon staff masking up at work, thus reminding tourists that the pandemic didn't suddenly disappear.

 

[zooterkin]

The downgrading of Covid has led to a couple of things. There is a definite relaxation of mask wearing, although on subways etc… mask-wearing is still pretty high (about 70%? Judging by the subway I am on right now). In classrooms people are wearing masks a little less but there are still quite a few.

Almost certainly there has been a rise in Covid as a result of general relaxation of recommendations, but people still tend to wear masks at a high rate.

Masks are very rare now in the UK, even at doctors' and dentists' surgeries. I see the odd person out and about wearing one, but it's very unusual. Watching the TdF interviews on TV is weird, with the cyclists wearing masks while outdoors.

 

[dann]

The Cleveland Clinic study

The Cleveland Clinic study has now been published:

The Cleveland Clinic? Really?! This Cleveland Clinic???
Cleveland Clinic Doctor Goes Full Anti-Vaccine (Forbes, Jan 7, 2017)

The Cleveland Clinic seems to have a long tradition of quackery:
Traditional Chinese herbalism at the Cleveland Clinic? What happened to science-based medicine? (Science-Based Medicine, April 26, 2014)
The Medical Director of The Cleveland Clinic Wellness Institute spewed antivaccine misinformation last week. Why is anyone surprised? (Science-Based Medicine, Jan 9. 2017)
Why Do Prestigious Hospitals Sell Snake Oil? (Science-Based Medicine, Mar 8, 2017)
Cleveland Clinic genetic experts call out functional medicine on worthless genetic testing and supplement prescribing (Science-Based Medicine, Feb 15, 2018)
Frequency Specific Microcurrent (Science-Based Medicine, Jan 16, 2019)
Cleveland Clinic Drops the Ball in an Attempt to Educate Parents on Safe Sleep (Science-Based Medicine, June 10, 2022)

Some people are going to lose their **** over that.

It's a good reason to not get booster shots, because we know the protection against severe disease does last, so you're better to let the disease take its course and build up personal and herd immunity.

I'm quite amused by it.

It shouldn't come as a surprise to anybody that antivaxxers and minimizers love the Cleveland Clinic study! People are free to find it amusing if that kind of humor appeals to them, but I would recommend reading this before resorting to :
Cleveland Clinic Study Did Not Show Vaccines Increase COVID-19 Risk (FactCheck.org, June 16, 2023)

 

[dann]

Masks are very rare now in the UK, even at doctors' and dentists' surgeries. I see the odd person out and about wearing one, but it's very unusual. Watching the TdF interviews on TV is weird, with the cyclists wearing masks while outdoors.

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

The same thing goes for people and people's health. I noticed last year when Tour de France was in Copenhagen. I was passing a street that was blocked with Tour de France busses, and the officials were hysterical if people on the sidewalk got too close to the busses. There's a lot of money invested in those guys, so their health is important.
Can you imagine how this disease would affect people if its harmful impact weren't restricted to professional athletes? It would be a disaster!

 

[FatherLukeduke]

Covid hasn’t gone away, and is still killing about 1000 people a week in the UK:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1675920908462989324.html

That just isn't true.

For the last week we have available data for it was a 10th of that - 106 people.

In the week ending 16 June 2023 (Week 24), 10,700 deaths were registered in England and Wales; 156 of these deaths mentioned novel coronavirus (COVID-19), accounting for 1.5% of all deaths.

Of the 156 deaths involving COVID-19 in Week 24, 68.6% (107 deaths) had this recorded as the underlying cause of death, which was a higher proportion when compared with Week 23 (64.5%).

The median age of people dying is about 84.

 

[angrysoba]

In the Nordics, people stopped masking up almost immediately, i.e. in the winter of 2021-22 when they were told that it was no longer mandated or even recommended to mask up, so the skyrocketing numbers immediately after didn't come as a surprise to some of us. I have mentioned in another context that it took leading Danish experts three years to realize that SARS-CoV-2 was transmitted as airborne aerosols.
Forward to spring of 2023:
Former SSI president regrets corona recommendation (Sundhedspolitisk Tidsskrift, March 7, 2023)
(SSI)

Do you know anything about people catering to tourists? Are they allowed to wear face masks? Many restaurant owners may frown upon staff masking up at work, thus reminding tourists that the pandemic didn't suddenly disappear.

Not just allowed. In Japan it is more likely that hospitality staff will be required to mask up in front of customers.

As far as I know, nobody would be told to take a mask off in Japan in almost any setting.

While a lot of people diss Japan's "conformity", I've actually liked the fact that most people generally go along with the advice they get. There were small numbers of people who refused to mask up or get vaccinated, but it was pretty much made clear throughout that that was a choice that people were free to make. In my university for example, although we could require students to wear masks when they were recommended by the government, we could not ask students if they were getting vaccinated, etc.. and I never did.

Masks are slowly coming off and of course there have been some rises in Covid cases, but they seem to be relatively low numbers.

Japan's version of Anthony Fauci seems to be well-respected as well...

An expert who served as the government’s top COVID-19 adviser suggested Japan may have entered its ninth wave of the novel coronavirus.

“Cases of infection are slightly on the rise nationwide, and the ninth wave may have begun,” said Shigeru Omi, who was chief of an expert panel advising the government on measures to tackle COVID-19. “It is becoming extremely important to consider how to protect the elderly.”

He spoke to reporters after exchanging views on the current situation and outlook with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida at the prime minister’s office on June 26.

“Looking at the data from regularly monitoring (medical institutions), the cases are slightly on the rise across the country, although there are some differences among prefectures,” Omi said.

He said the slight rise can be attributed to people coming increasingly in contact with others since the classification of COVID-19 under the infectious diseases control law was lowered to Category 5, the same level as seasonal influenza.

He also said the situation could settle into an endemic state, where infections are regionally prevalent.

“The fatality rate has not rapidly changed,” he added.

Link

 

[zooterkin]

That just isn't true.

For the last week we have available data for it was a 10th of that - 106 people.

And how reliable do you think the data is, given that practically no testing for Covid is being done now? And, if you read the thread, some of the deaths will be due to lasting organ damage due to Covid, not the immediate infection. If it's not Covid, what do you think the excess deaths are due to?

 

[Aridas]

If it's not Covid, what do you think the excess deaths are due to?

Without directly looking at the specifics here, it's likely worth the reminder that the aftereffects and problems caused by COVID are not limited to direct/lasting damage by COVID itself. For example, a lot of routine preventative care has been skipped, such as cancer screenings that would normally catch various cancers early enough for them to be dealt with. Hence, an excess death rate because of cancer as an indirect result of COVID likely accounts for a portion of those excess deaths, among other indirect effects.

 

[dann]

Not just allowed. In Japan it is more likely that hospitality staff will be required to mask up in front of customers.

As far as I know, nobody would be told to take a mask off in Japan in almost any setting.

While a lot of people diss Japan's "conformity", I've actually liked the fact that most people generally go along with the advice they get. There were small numbers of people who refused to mask up or get vaccinated, but it was pretty much made clear throughout that that was a choice that people were free to make. In my university for example, although we could require students to wear masks when they were recommended by the government, we could not ask students if they were getting vaccinated, etc.. and I never did.

Masks are slowly coming off and of course there have been some rises in Covid cases, but they seem to be relatively low numbers.

Japan's version of Anthony Fauci seems to be well-respected as well...



Link

And it wouldn't be different in Okinawa? (i.e. to avoid scaring the tourists.)
All in all, it sounds as if Japan is not as much in denial of pandemic realities as most Western countries.

I take this to mean that Japan hasn't achieved ZeroCovid death toll-wise, cf. post 2,996:

“The fatality rate has not rapidly changed,” he added.

 

[The Atheist]

If it's not Covid, what do you think the excess deaths are due to?

Which excess deaths are you talking about?

Given the chart linked shows deaths in 2023 lower than pre-covid years 2015 and 2018, please show where the "1000 a week" excess deaths are occurring.

 

[zooterkin]

Which excess deaths are you talking about?

Given the chart linked shows deaths in 2023 lower than pre-covid years 2015 and 2018, please show where the "1000 a week" excess deaths are occurring.

Excess deaths are calculated based on a number of factors, you don't simply look at the total numbers. https://blog.ons.gov.uk/2023/02/10/how-do-we-measure-expected-and-excess-deaths/

It's the twitter thread that's claiming 1000 excess deaths a week; they quote their sources. However, as a quick sanity check, from the most recent ONS data:

The number of deaths was above the five-year average in private homes (21.5% above, 551 excess deaths), hospitals (5.0% above, 214 excess deaths), care homes (2.2% above, 44 excess deaths) and other settings (9.1% above, 72 excess deaths).

For that week alone, (w/e June 23), there are 881 excess deaths, which is the same order of magnitude as what's being claimed.

 

[dann]

New studies on SARS-CoV-2's neurologic effects describe how even mild infections can lead to neuropsychiatric conditions by altering brain structure and function and review possible mechanisms for viral passage through the blood-brain barrier.
(...)
One study presented at the conference and published in an April 24 supplement of Neurology involved analysis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans of 254 patients conducted 3 months after COVID-19 diagnosis.

The scans revealed atrophy of the brain's gray matter and cerebral hyperconnectivity in patients with long COVID. While the significance and persistence of these changes are unknown, they suggest cognitive dysfunction associated with anxiety and depression, the authors said.
Studies add to picture of how COVID can affect the brain long term (University of Minnesota Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, July 3, 2023)

Long-term effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection on human brain and memory (Nature, June 29, 2023)

 

[dann]

Researchers running the University of Oxford-led Com-COV3 study have reported the results of a study assessing the immune response and side effect profile of "mixed" two-dose COVID-19 vaccine schedules in adolescents aged 12 to 16 years—administering either a full or a one-third (fractional) dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine or a full dose of the Novavax vaccine at least eight weeks after a first full dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine.

In a paper published in the Journal of Infection, the researchers report that a mixed schedule using a full dose of Pfizer-BioNTech followed by a full dose of Novavax led to fewer break-through infections and generated higher antibody and T cell responses than the licensed two full dose (homologous) Pfizer-BioNTech schedule against both wild-type COVID-19 and omicron COVID-19 variants, BA.1 and BA.2.
Novavax COVID-19 vaccine as a second dose generates high immune response in young people, finds study (medicalXpress, July 6, 2023)

And yet antivaxxers still claim that there's "a good reason to not get booster shots" and instead recommend letting "the disease take its course and build up personal and herd immunity."

 

[dann]

Wouldn’t it depend on age? Is it advisable for older people to get booster shots?

See post 3,006. The Atheist's post is disinformation.

 

[The Atheist]

Excess deaths are calculated based on a number of factors, you don't simply look at the total numbers.

The fact remains that the excess deaths in 2023 is below the number of excess deaths in 2015 and 2018.

Clearly, it's not covid related. The numbers from 2020, when there were a hell of a lot of covid deaths is a guide, but feel free to keep being wrong.

 

[zooterkin]

Without directly looking at the specifics here, it's likely worth the reminder that the aftereffects and problems caused by COVID are not limited to direct/lasting damage by COVID itself. For example, a lot of routine preventative care has been skipped, such as cancer screenings that would normally catch various cancers early enough for them to be dealt with. Hence, an excess death rate because of cancer as an indirect result of COVID likely accounts for a portion of those excess deaths, among other indirect effects.

And I would argue that those deaths are due, directly or indirectly, to Covid.

 

[angrysoba]

The fact remains that the excess deaths in 2023 is below the number of excess deaths in 2015 and 2018.

Clearly, it's not covid related. The numbers from 2020, when there were a hell of a lot of covid deaths is a guide, but feel free to keep being wrong.

I don't know if it is "clearly not Covid related". It could well be, to some extent.

That said, the question is whether or not it is from acute Covid infections, which I think it probably is not, and long-term after effects of Covid, which it could be.