For the vast majority of transwomen who want to compete in female sports, it has nothing to do with insisting on exercising their rights as transwomen... that's just a cover for what they really want... to win. They aren't good enough to win as men, but they only need to be of average ability to be a world beater among women.
A great example is mountain biker Kate Weatherly. As Anton Weatherly, he was no more than an average, middle of the field men's downhill mountain bike competitor. Now as Kate, a transwoman, Weatherly absolutely dominates the female division here. In a sport where the first half-dozen competitors are usually only separated by a few seconds across the whole half-dozen, Weatherley wins by half a minute or more. As a sport, female mountain biking has been losing numbers, and that is hardly surprising - who wants to participate when they best they can ever hope to achieve is a distant second.
If sports organizations continue to allow transgender women to compete in female sports, those sports WILL become dominated by transgender athletes, and actual biological women will effectively be shut out of their own sports. Fortunately, some sports women and sports organizations are beginning to push back on this insanity.
If you don't believe its all about winning, I will point out that there are many dozens of trans-women trying to become competitors in female divisions, and the numbers are on the increase. On the other side, there are almost no trans-men vying to participate in male divisions... Gee, now I wonder why that is?
Perhaps I didn't make my point well. So I'll be more clear: We will never be able to tell if transmen with a liking for sport are seeking to compete.
We won't be able to tell, because even if they are seeking to compete, they won't be competitive - they won't make the cut. Because they are female. They can seek to compete and try out as much as they want to... but they won't be successful.
Time for another attempt at a bad analogy, to try to demonstrate the dynamic I'm trying to highlight.
Let's talk about competitive can stacking! Let's say there are two leagues - one for people under 5'5", and the other for people over 5'5". The Under 5.5 league stacks on the second shelf of the grocery store. The Over 5.5 League stacks on the third shelf of the grocery store, which is a foot and a half higher than the second shelf.
Now, both of those categories contain people who are very competitive against each other, as well as people who are not competitive. The non-competitive people don't make it past try-outs, and we never see them again. But both groups also contain a handful of people who identify as a member of the other category. In colorful language, there are some transshort people and some transtall people.
Now, let's assume that the transheight people argue that the leagues should be inclusive of everyone's height identities, and should allow transheight people to compete on the team that aligns with their height identity. So the governing body for competitive can stacking thinks about it and says "Yeah, okay, we think inclusivity is a good idea, let's give this a shot, what could go wrong?"
Now let's put it into play. We've got trials coming up for each team, and each team can have 10 stackers. There are 25 cisheight people and 5 transheight people trying out for each of the two leagues.
Let's first look at the Under 5.5 tryouts. For that, there are 25 cisshort people and 5 transshort people. All of them, can reach the second shelf, where the stacking takes place. So for the Under 5.5 league, there are essentially 30 people trying out for 10 spots. Each of the transshort people has a 1 in 6 chance of making the team.
Now let's look at the Over 5.5 tryouts. There are 25 cistall people and 5 transtall people trying out. But here's where reality interferes with the noble ideal of inclusivity: The 5 transtall people cannot reach the third shelf. That means that none of the transtall people will make the team, even though they tried out in numbers equal to the transshort people.
At the end of the day, we're going to see an Over 5.5 League that is comprised only of people whose objective measurements are over 5'5" tall. But for the Under 5.5 League, we could end up seeing two people on the team whose objective measurement is 5'10 and 6'2.
Do you get where I'm coming from? Even if the impetus is for inclusivity, we will never be able to tell from the outcome. Because no matter how they identify, no matter how tall they envision themselves to be, the 5'2" tall people cannot reach the third shelf.
No matter how strongly a female might identify as a "man", they are still fundamentally female. They aren't going to make the cut to join a male team.
We will never be able to tell whether argument from inclusivity is genuine or not.
It doesn't though - we cannot tell whether the inclusion argument was initially meant sincerely or not. It very well may have been intended with completely honesty and sincerity... but the outcome makes it impossible to determine.
And when it comes to athletics, males and females are NOT athletically equivalent. It's not a complete parallel to the transshort people who can reach the second shelf easily, but have no inherent stacking advantage. When it comes to sex, males DO have a material physicals advantage over females.
And we've seen the result of this disparity multiple times. We've repeatedly seen middle-aged males who are not in top shape, and who were mediocre or non-competitive against other males... come in as top-placing winners when they compete against females. We've seen it in weightlifting. We've seen it in swimming. We've seen it several times in cycling. Laurel Hubbard, Lia Thomas, Rachel McKinnon, Austin Killips, Emily Bridges, nd several others I can't remember right now. All of them were mediocre or completely uncompetitive against males. And all of them took winning spots from females who were at their physical peak.
Both of you seem very sure that the inclusion argument is a disingenuous facade, and no more than an easy route for transwomen to play on easy mode and grab money and fame that would otherwise not have come their way as easily, and maybe not come their way at all. I wouldn’t be surprised if that were so, human nature generally being what it is; but I don’t think it is quite …right? fair? heh, properly skeptical? to directly rush to that conclusion absent any kind of evidence.
And what I put down there is what appears to me a pretty neat way of arriving at that evidence, fairly persuasively. And
smartcooky, you seem to agree with me, about the validity of this metric, basis what you say in your comment. (Agreement, as far as only that much, only as far as the metric itself being valid. We do differ, a bit, on where that metric leads us; but I’ll come to that presently.)
By the way, this whole thing, this “metric” thing, it’s not as if it is something I’ve seen used anywhere, complete with evidence about its veracity and everything, and nor is it some deeply entrenched idea I hold to. It’s just something that came to mind, entirely off the cuff, while speaking about something else (broadly related, obviously, but something different) with you,
Emily’s Cat. What I’m saying is, just an off-the-cuff idea, is all this is, and I’m happy to acknowledge it, in ringing tones, if that idea turns out to have holes in it. Absolutely no issues as far as that.
Except, as far as I can see, it doesn’t. Doesn’t have the holes in it that you seem to see, I mean to say,
Emily’s Cat. Like I’d said, there’s levels and levels of participation; and there’s no reason why we should limit ourselves only to some minimum level of participation.
How would you normally go about trying to assess the validity of the inclusion argument? Go polling these trans-folks? Are they likely to honestly own up to being disingenuous, if indeed they are being disingenuous, given that it is obvious that such a poll can be used to directly impact their participation in women’s categories, and therefore confound the whole purpose of their disingenuousness? Well, regardless of whether this survey/poll thing might work --- and I personally think it probably wouldn’t --- here’s another methodology we can easily follow: We could just go out and check in what categories transmen and transwomen are actually participating, IRL. I don’t mean just check out news reports and such. After all, polling and surveying and suchlike is something we’d have to get off of our asses and actually do, right? So that’s what I was getting at, we could actually see, right down to the most humble levels of participation, in what categories these people are participating. It doesn’t really matter whether they’re able to win or not, and whether they’re able to make it to more elevated levels or not. The thing is to go see in what cateogory they’re participating in.
That’s where I was coming from. If we find that it’s only transwomen that are hopping over to run and cycle and swim and box with ciswomen; while transmen, insteading of playing with the men, end up staying in the ciswomen categories; well then, clearly the inclusion argument is then shown up as a lie. On the other hand, if we find that it does actually swing both ways, with sizeable numbers of transmen competing in men’s categories, then I think it would be fair to conclude that the inclusion argument is indeed sincerely meant and honestly presented.
(And, it’s probably entirely obvious, but still, to make sure there’s no misunderstanding: I’m not demanding of you personally that you go out and go collect that data on this, no more than I’d expect you to go actually polling and surveying transfolks, just because you happen to be debating on this topic here. Obviously. Just, rather than a priori assuming that these guys/ladies are lying their ass off, we --- generic “we” --- might have one way to base our opinion on actual evidence.)
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Oh, and
smartcooky, this last kind of follows from what I’ve already said, but I guess
Emily’s Cat is correct in so far as she points out that merely looking at participation numbers at the higher levels, the levels that generally make for news, may not work, given that while transwomen are at a clear advantage in ciswomen categories, but transmen end up being at a distinct disadvantage in cismen categories (and so are unlikely to make it to top levels). For this “metric” to work --- heh, grand formal-sounding word, that, for what is just an off-the-cuff thought! --- I was saying, for this metric to actually be meaningful, we’d have to dig deeper than that.