It isn't about whether they end up winning or not.
I think ---- I only think that, and am happy to be corrected if I'm wrong! ---- I was saying, I think transwomen are asking for inclusion into women's categories by arguing for inclusion, right? If that is an honest argument, then it ought to swing both ways: transmen also should then asking for inclusion, by competing with men.
If that latter is actually happening, then I'd say the argument for inclusion is at least one that is being made honestly. If that latter isn't actually happening, then clearly the inclusion argument is merely a sham, merely subterfuge, to somehow end up winning medals and prize money and what-have-you. Is all I was saying.
Let's step half a step back and think about this, particularly the net impact.
First off, let's make the sweeping assumption (for argument's sake) that both transmen and transwomen are asking primarily for
inclusion. Abd let's assume that they're asking in equal numbers.
What would be the outcome of that ask?
Remember that even if the argument is from the perspective of inclusion, sports are still competitive. Not everyone makes the cut. Among females in female sports, not every female on the planet is going to be good enough to qualify. Similarly, of all the males who might wish to compete against other males, not all of them will qualify.
So there's an athletic barrier to entry in both cases. Not all people who want to participate will be able to participate, because a minimum level of athletic competitiveness is required.
So let's extend that into your scenario. Let's say that transmen are asking to play on the male teams in the name of inclusion - they want to be included. Well, in most cases they're already not excluded. While we think of them as male and female leagues, in most cases they're actually Open and Female leagues. If a female is good enough to pass the bar and compete against males, in most cases, they will be allowed to do so.
The real question comes back to one of athletic ability. No matter how much a transman wants to compete on a male team in the name of inclusion, virtually none of them will be athletically capable of doing so. Because at the end of the day, they're still female. And females aren't competitive against males.
Going the other direction however, the transwomen get an easy in when they play the inclusion card. Because fundamentally, regardless of how they identify, they remain male. And males are more athletically capable than females.
So even if the main impetus is inclusion, we're still going to see males gaining access to female sports, but we will not see females gaining access to male sports.